If The Shit Hits The Fan Coronavirus

[Pdoggg]

The market is getting hammered again today.  It seems to me that even if the best case scenario, for example if it turns out to be similar to SARS but there are still significant business disruptions, corporate profits will take a hit which translates into lower stock prices.  But if the shit hits the fan, let's say there is a 5% probability of that, then we are looking at a cruel bear market.   In the last half hour alone the market dropped another 1% percent, so far down about 3% today.

 

[xyzzy]

China is a much bigger parts supplier and consumer than it was in the SARS era. And they are still mostly shut down. Despite how much we poke fun at the Chinese there is an active market there for high end/luxury products. 10% of Apple's sales are in China. I've been watching CNBC off and all day. The big US shipping container ports are expecting a slowdown soon. It take something like 30 days for a container to get from China to Charleston, South Carolina so they really haven't seen the slow down yet. But expect it soon which will cause some parts shortages.

But now Europe is becoming a concern with three? new countries (Spain, Switzerland and Germany) reporting at least one case. The US still claims they have it under control. But who knows so now we get to see the stock market go nuts. Even if it had been contained in China that would still be a problem for the world economy as many countries are (IMO) overly dependent on China production.

The US CDC today changed their US warning alert level higher. 

[sydneyjohn57]

2 hours ago, xyzzy said:

It take something like 30 days for a container to get from China to Charleston, South Carolina so they really haven't seen the slow down yet. But expect it soon which will cause some parts shortages

Yesterday I was speaking to a crane operator who works at Botany Port, Sydney's main container port and he says that they have seen a definite slow down in arriving ships and the midnight shift has been cancelled which basically means that workload has reduced by a third.

[Pdoggg]

The Footsie and other European markets are getting hammered today and the Dow is down over 600 points at this writing.  

Goldman Sachs put out a zero earnings growth call today due to Coronavirus. The consensus is about 7% but some of the other forecasts are over a week old. 

[Ashoka]

2 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

The Footsie and other European markets are getting hammered today and the Dow is down over 600 points at this writing.  

Goldman Sachs put out a zero earnings growth call today due to Coronavirus. The consensus is about 7% but some of the other forecasts are over a week old. 

I expect a 15-20%, but it may get worse because its a supply shock. Don't be surprised at iphones costing $2500.

[seven]

The last 24 hours the first cases in Sweden have been established. First was a guy in his 30's whos been to northern Italy in mid february  was diagnosed yesterday. Hes feeling alright though except a cold. I think we should remember that if you do get the virus , most will have symptoms of a flu or a cold , and not necessarily end up with pneumonia and eventually sign off.

[seven]

On 2/25/2020 at 10:58 PM, xyzzy said:

But now Europe is becoming a concern with three? new countries (Spain, Switzerland and Germany) reporting at least one case

Sweden now too.

[deleted]

6 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

The Footsie and other European markets are getting hammered today and the Dow is down over 600 points at this writing.  

Goldman Sachs put out a zero earnings growth call today due to Coronavirus. The consensus is about 7% but some of the other forecasts are over a week old. 

Jesus.

 

[bumblebee]

First case in Ireland reported tonight. A woman flew in from northern Italy to Dublin airport and took a train to the north.  It was only a matter of time, no doubt there will be more reports in the coming weeks alas.  

[xyzzy]

The US had it's first community case yesterday in northern California. That means It couldn't be tracked back to someone that traveled overseas, etc and they don't know where it came from. They had that person in a hospital for several days before testing them for COVID-19. Seems all of California has only a few hundred test kits and this case didn't meet strict federal government rules for doing a test. 

[Pdoggg]

7 hours ago, Sylvester said:

Jesus.

Thursday was the Dow's worst day in history in nominal terms (but not even close if looking at percentages).

Asian markets are getting hammered today and Dow futures (a good indication of how Friday's market will open) are down 500 points as of this writing.

I suspect that Monday will be a bad day too as investors brood about their diminished portfolios over the weekend.   There will be more bad news as some other country reports a new outbreak.

Eventually, sentiment will hit a bottom and create a buying opportunity but your guess is as good as mine as to when that will be. 

[ArchieBunker]

I do believe there is a buying opportunity here somewhere. Where that is is anyone’s guess. It would take a fairly tough set of stones to jump in. However, it’s been proven that tough, uncertain times are the best to buy. But like I said it takes a lot of stones. A fairly lengthy time frame held as well. 
 

while the market is down about 10%, my stuff is down considerably less than that. Think my holdings are down about 4.5%. Not good but when it’s gone up about 20% in the last two years or so, it puts things in perspective. 

[Pdoggg]

Here is the S&P 500 and its simple moving average trend line as of Thursday's close.   The S&P had been quite a bit above the trend line and has now just slightly below the line.  The trend line would be more or less where the price should be given normal conditions.

However, these days are fa from normal and one would expect things tobe worse than normal so I don't think we've reached the bottom yet.

As I write, most European markets are getting hammered today, down about 4%.

[rxpharm]

There's a saying that applies to this situation is don't try to catch a falling knife - so it is best not to buy in until the market stops falling. Right now be on  the sidelines and consider buying in when things have stabliized. If new cases continue on for the next couple of weeks and a pandemic is announced, I am pretty sure a full blown recession will occur.

As for the US - when President Trump (who is the smartest man he knows) announces that everything is under control in and there should only be minor effects, is contradicted by his Health and Human Services Secretary, Alex Azar, that doesn't inspire confidence. No doubt Alex will be asked to resign after the the crisis passes.

[Quietguy]

7 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

As I write, most European markets are getting hammered today, down about 4%.

London Stock Market (FTSE) down again today. Lowest since after Brexit vote in June 2016

[seven]

3 hours ago, rxpharm said:

Trump (who is the smartest man he knows)

Yes, hes so smart he appointed Mike Pence to deal with the problem.

[seven]

Mike Pence, who enabled an HIV outbreak in Indiana, will lead US coronavirus response

Pence has a track record of ignoring public health evidence

What Mike Pence’s public health record says about his ability to lead on coronavirus

 

In 2011, a Congress member from Indiana helped pass federal legislation to strip funding from Planned Parenthood. 

Two years later, the last Planned Parenthood affiliate in Scott County, Indiana, closed its doors because of budget cuts. It was also the last HIV testing center in the county. By 2015, an HIV outbreak was brewing in the state. At the peak of the outbreak, 20 new cases were being diagnosed per week, with a total of nearly 200 cases eventually reported, according to HuffPost.

 

But that Congress member, who became Indiana’s governor, didn’t want to authorize a needle-exchange program to stop the spread of the virus. 

“I don’t believe effective anti-drug policy involves handing out drug paraphernalia,” he said.

That Indiana governor was, of course, Mike Pence. Now he’s the vice president, and on Wednesday, President Trump put him in charge of fighting coronavirus in the US.

“He’s got a certain talent for this,” Trump said.

Moreover, Pence and his history are part of a bigger problem in the Trump administration

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/28/21156158/mike-pence-coronavirus-trump-administration-hiv-science

[seven]

Mike Pence, who enabled an HIV outbreak in Indiana, will lead US coronavirus response

Pence has a track record of ignoring public health evidence

Vice President Mike Pence will take charge of the US response to the new coronavirus, President Donald Trump announced today. “Mike is not a czar,” Trump said. “I don’t view Mike as a czar.”

Pence is not a public health expert, either. Instead, as governor of Indiana, he slashed public health spending and delayed the introduction of needle exchanges, which led to the state’s worst outbreak of HIV. He takes over from Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar who has been heading the White House coronavirus task force since the beginning of January. 

Yale epidemiologist Gregg Gonsalves, who conducted the research linking the Indiana HIV outbreak to Pence’s policies, tweeted that the decision “speaks to a lack of seriousness by the White House.”

 

"Oh my f—cking god. He’s putting @VP Mike Pence in charge of #coronavirususa. This is a man that totally botched HIV outbreak in Indiana. This is not a good idea and speaks to a lack of seriousness by the @WhiteHouse."

 

 

[globetrotter1]

7 minutes ago, seven said:

Mike Pence, who enabled an HIV outbreak in Indiana, will lead US coronavirus response

Pence has a track record of ignoring public health evidence

Vice President Mike Pence will take charge of the US response to the new coronavirus, President Donald Trump announced today. “Mike is not a czar,” Trump said. “I don’t view Mike as a czar.”

Pence is not a public health expert, either. Instead, as governor of Indiana, he slashed public health spending and delayed the introduction of needle exchanges, which led to the state’s worst outbreak of HIV. He takes over from Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar who has been heading the White House coronavirus task force since the beginning of January. 

Yale epidemiologist Gregg Gonsalves, who conducted the research linking the Indiana HIV outbreak to Pence’s policies, tweeted that the decision “speaks to a lack of seriousness by the White House.”

 

"Oh my f—cking god. He’s putting @VP Mike Pence in charge of #coronavirususa. This is a man that totally botched HIV outbreak in Indiana. This is not a good idea and speaks to a lack of seriousness by the @WhiteHouse."

 

 

More Pence than  sense 

[xyzzy]

But I'm jealous. His hair is always perfect.

[Sustra4]

Xhamster is offering a free membership till the 31st of March to all the people living in the "red zone" of Italy hit by virus.....to avoid virus..stay home..and die masturbating..well..not a bad idea..you can die in 4K quality video

.

 

 

 

[seven]

29 minutes ago, Sustra4 said:

Xhamster is offering a free membership till the 31st of March to all the people living in the "red zone" of Italy hit by virus.....to avoid virus..stay home..and die masturbating..well..not a bad idea..you can die in 4K quality video

Haha, brilliant! Je suis Milano.

[seven]

45 minutes ago, Cherjam said:

worried about it

Iran, USA, UK and China believe in not telling their citizens.

[seven]

49 minutes ago, xyzzy said:

His hair is always perfect.

Copyhair. 

[seven]

10 minutes ago, Cherjam said:

does this make it ok? Nobody is getting told the truth FFS, this shit is serious

Not at all, but I think there are more honest governments ( is there such a thing as an honest government though) around the world than others.