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Bangkok Violence Escalating


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http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/17/world/asia/thailand-protests.html?_r=0

Thailand Protests Wane Despite Calls to Shut Down Bangkok

 

BANGKOK — Antigovernment demonstrators marched to government offices on Thursday, but their numbers were far lower than they were earlier in the week, when they started their campaign to shut down Bangkok.

Protesters are pledging to stop elections next month while the government is vowing that they will take place. During two months of protests, the number of government detractors on the streets has waxed and waned, and many parts of Bangkok have been unaffected by the demonstrations.

But the country appears no closer to resolving its debilitating power struggle, and protesters say they will not give up until Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and other key ministers step down.

Ms. Yingluck, who called elections last month in a failed attempt to defuse the crisis, presided over a political forum on Wednesday meant to be a concession to her opponents to discuss the possibility of postponing the election.


Ms. Yingluck said it was “regrettable” that the Election Commission did not show up, although the secretary general of the organization attended as an observer. The governing party has accused the commission of lacking independence and being overly politicized.But in a sign of the distrust and the highly fractious political atmosphere in the country, the protest leaders, the opposition Democrat Party and the Election Commission all refused to take part in the meeting.

Phuchong Nutawong, the secretary general of the Election Commission, was quoted as saying the commission was ready to arrange the election on Feb. 2.

Ms. Yingluck’s party will almost certainly win the election. The Democrat Party, which has not won an election in more than two decades, is boycotting and has allied itself with the protesters.

 

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From the Wall Street Journal:


http://stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-428389/




 




Thailand’s Stocks Head Higher As Investors Brave Unrest

Brazil, Turkey Have Opposite Reaction to Internal Turmoil
 


 



As antigovernment protests turn violent and keep Bangkok shut down, Thailand's currency and stocks are heading higher.



 


As antigovernment protests turn violent and keep Bangkok shut down, Thailand’s currency and stocks are taking a surprising turn by heading higher as investors hold their nerve.


The gains are in contrast to emerging markets such as Brazil and Turkey, which are faring worse after widespread protests in their capitals sent global money managers scampering.


Thailand’s robust economy, bolstered by a current account surplus, solid growth and low inflation has reassured investors after an initial exodus of cash late last year. The mostly middle-class protesters are concentrated within the capital and the political wrangling is nothing new for a country that has suffered 18 successful or attempted coups since independence in 1932.


“Investors are used to political instability in that country and as long as it doesn’t signal a change in the fundamentals—especially toward foreign investments, then investors will wait for the situation to clear before reassessing the fundamentals,” said Olivier d’Assier, managing director in Asia for Axioma, a risk consultancy. Mr. d’Assier said that Thailand typically bounces back quickly from political turmoil.


By contrast, in Turkey and Brazil, money managers have been spooked by unexpected protests fueled by an increasingly frustrated, young middle-class struggling with price hikes and unemployment. Those two countries also both have wide trade imbalances and are heavily reliant on foreign money to fund their deficits, while rising external debt pressure is also a worry.


The Turkish lira is trading at its weakest level on record after data showed that Turkey’s current-account deficit widened to a four-month high in November and a series of corruption scandals escalate. Meanwhile, the Brazilian real has tumbled about 10% since protests began while stock markets in both of these once-booming emerging markets have spluttered. Worries over a slowdown in U.S. bond-buying, coupled with social unrest, pushed benchmark stock indexes in Brazil and Turkey down 11.2% and 27.7%, respectively from their May highs. Thailand, too, is down 20.8% since the summer selloff, but in the last week has stormed ahead of these emerging markets despite escalating unrest.


The protests in Bangkok started peacefully, but are turning more deadly with at least eight people, including a police officer, killed in clashes. The protesters are calling for Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to step down to make way for an unelected interim ruling council.


Despite the recent optimism, many economists are sounding a note of caution, with analysts at Goldman Sachs lowering their near-term growth forecasts for the Southeast Asian economy Thursday and expecting the currency to weaken because of the “the increased political uncertainty and the already-soft economic trajectory from 2013.”


Nevertheless, the markets are remaining resilient, with Thailand’s SET stock index rallying 3.7% so far this week even while tens of thousands of protesters occupied large areas of Bangkok, and threatened to shut down the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which has managed to remain operational. The baht also strengthened 0.6% against the greenback over the last week. That has brought losses for stocks to 9.8% since the protests began and a 5.3% drop for the baht.


“Increasingly one of the big themes for 2014 will be that emerging markets investors are looking for good stories and they are differentiating a lot more between good and bad stories,” said John-Paul Kelly, a portfolio manager within the emerging market debt team in London at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, where he co-manages $6 billion of local currency bond funds.


He is keeping his holdings in Thailand while in Turkey he has reduced his bond and currency positions, but has increased his holdings in bonds and currencies in Brazil since mid-December, reassured by the central bank raising rates to help attract capital and stem the outflow.


Emerging markets globally have also been bolstered by a rally in U.S. stocks to a record and signs the Federal Reserve is in no rush to significantly scale back its bond-buying program. That is a change from last summer when emerging markets sold off and investors turned back to the U.S. on jitters the Fed would end its monetary stimulus and yields on Treasuries would turn up, drawing investment away from the emerging world.


“Post May [2013], investors woke up to the fact that risk in emerging markets was far from homogenous,” said Robert Abad, an emerging markets fixed-income portfolio manager at Western Asset Management Co. “That was the time when investors reassessed fundamentals, started to sort out those countries with higher degrees of balance of payments vulnerability, and began asking for higher spreads to compensate for the additional risk.”


For many investors, any resolution to Thailand’s crisis is likely to be seen as positive as it allows the government to start operating fully again. Thailand has been attempting to bring to market a dollar-denominated bond to fund its infrastructure program but it remains in limbo with the protests and an impasse in parliament over an infrastructure bill.


“Really any government that comes in is pro-business,” said Adithep Vanabriksha, chief investment officer in Bangkok for Aberdeen Investment Management. “Companies are really, really strong. They have managed to weather many crises.”



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Another grenade attack

 

 

Two grenades thrown at victory monument protest site; at least 28 hurtSOME 28 people, including a number of anti-government protesters, were wounded yesterday afternoon when two grenades were thrown at a rally site at Victory Monument.

Seven victims sustained serious injuries and were receiving treatment at four hospitals. One of the wounded is a female Post Today reporter, Sitthinee Huangnark.

Witnesses said the first grenade was thrown near a bus stop near the rally stage, which is located in front of Rajvithi Hospital.

After the first grenade went off at around 1.30pm, a group of protesters and rally guards chased a man suspected of throwing it. The suspect fired three shots in the air to scare away those chasing him, before lobbing another grenade down from a pedestrian flyover, injuring a second group of victims.

The suspect continued to flee on the pedestrian flyover, running into Rajvithi Soi 14. The man fired another shot at one of his pursuers, wounding him in the stomach, before running further into the soi and jumping on a waiting motorcycle, on which he fled.

Police later inspected the scene and identified two grenade pins as belonging to Russian-made RGD-5 grenades - the same type used in the attack on Friday on protesters at Banthad Thong Road. At least 36 people were wounded in that attack, and one died of his injuries early on Saturday.

Former Democrat MP Thaworn Senneam, a core leader of the People's Democratic Reform Committee, which is staging the Shutdown campaign, said the attack was meant to harm him. Thaworn is supervising the Victory Monument stage. He said feedback from PDRC guards was that there were probably six men who took part in the latest attack.

Army commander General Prayuth Chan-ocha deplored the attack, deputy Army spokesman Colonel Winthai Suvaree said yesterday, adding that the Army chief had ordered the military to adjust security plans with the government's Centre for the Administration of Peace and Order (CAPO).

The areas of adjustment include the location of road checkpoints and a request for police to hasten investigations into previous attacks, especially in gathering information on who was behind the attacks on protesters.

In an earlier attack on the PDRC's Lat Phrao rally site at 11.20pm on Saturday, shots were fired at a

gate, seriously wounding a 53-year-old guard, the Erawan Emergency Medical Services Centre said.

Yesterday's grenade attacks at Victory Monument prompted heightened security at all seven rally sites, especially the main venue at Pathumwan intersection.

PDRC core leader Satit Wongnongtaey said the additional measures include inspections of all protesters' baggage, an expansion of security rings around all rally sites, and more patrol teams around them.

Satit said joint operations between PDRC guards and police at road checkpoints seemed useless to him, as no ordinary vehicles going in or travelling near protest sites had been searched. Instead, only ambulances had been searched by police, he said.

PDRC leader Suthep Thaugsuban led a march yesterday from the Lat Phrao rally site to nearby areas and return without incident.

PDRC spokesman Akanat Promphan said that daily marches by protesters would continue unabated, but the government and the police had failed to bringing those responsible for the attacks to justice. They had only put blame on the protest leaders. He said the anti-government movement and protesters would gain nothing from carrying out such attacks.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Second-grenade-attack-30224693.html

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Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra declared a 60-day state of emergency in Bangkok as she sought to combat violent attacks that threaten to derail elections scheduled for Feb. 2.

 

Grenade attacks and shootings in the Thai capital have killed one person and injured 70 over the past five days, prompting army Chief Prayuth Chan-Ocha to call for restraint from protesters and security officials. Suthep Thaugsuban, an opposition politician leading the protests, vowed to continue blockades of major intersections that began on Jan. 13.

 

“We will start with negotiations,” Yingluck told reporters today. “All officials will be careful and everything will be done in line with international rules. Please don’t be concerned.”

 

The move marks a shift in strategy by Yingluck, who put up mild resistance as demonstrators calling for an unelected council to take power occupied buildings and streets over the past three months. Thailand last saw a state of emergency to combat protests in 2010, when Suthep’s Democrat party held power and oversaw a crackdown on protesters loyal to Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck’s brother, that killed more than 90 people.

 

“I don’t want to go back to the painful period of 2010,” Prayuth told reporters yesterday. “But the situation today is different. The situation hasn’t reached that point, so soldiers can’t come out to do anything. Everything depends on the situation.”

Coup Fears

Thailand has had nine coups and more than 20 prime ministers since 1946. Prayuth earlier this month said that the “door” to a coup is neither open nor closed, raising speculation the army may step in if protests become violent.

 

The government won’t use weapons and won’t disperse protesters at night, Labor Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung, who will oversee a joint operation between the military and police, told reporters today. The elections will go ahead as planned, he said.

“We will talk first and I will be the one to lead negotiations,” Chalerm said. “We are all friends. I hope Suthep will change his mind and surrender to police.”

 

Suthep’s critics have said he seeks to create enough turmoil to spur the intervention of the military in a repeat of a 2006 coup that toppled Thaksin, whose allies have won the past five elections on support from rural northern and northeastern regions. The protesters want to prevent parties linked to Thaksin from returning to power.

Sit And Pray

“Don’t be scared about the emergency decree,” Suthep told supporters tonight at Bangkok’s Lumpini Park. “If they come to disperse us, we will sit down and pray. If they storm in, we will retreat orderly without any panic.”

 

The protesters, mostly middle-class Bangkokians and Democrat party supporters from southern provinces, say Yingluck’s government is illegitimate and run from abroad by Thaksin, who faces a two-year jail term for corruption if he returns in a case he says was politically motivated.

 

Nine people have been killed since anti-government protests began Oct. 31, including a man who died from injuries sustained in a Jan. 17 grenade attack on a protest march near Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University.

 

The Election Commission has urged the government to defer the vote until May, saying the political environment is too tense to proceed next month. The government, police and military are united in efforts to prevent violence and to ensure the election goes ahead, Yingluck said Jan. 17.

Baht Drops

The perceived risk of Thailand defaulting on its debt has risen to the highest since June 2012.

 

Credit-default swaps insuring Thai debt against non-payment for five years increased eight basis points, the most since Nov. 26, to 158 basis points in New York yesterday, according to CMA prices. That was the highest close since June 2012. The baht, which fell 0.2 percent to 32.91 per dollar as of 6:59 p.m. in Bangkok today, has weakened 5.7 percent since the protest began on Oct. 31, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

Suthep’s former party, the Democrats, have lost every national election over the past two decades and plan to boycott next month’s poll.

 

Yingluck dissolved parliament Dec. 9 and announced the election a day after the Democrats resigned en masse to join the demonstrations, which at their peak drew more than 200,000 people. Protesters initially took to the streets to oppose a proposed amnesty law that they said would benefit Thaksin, which the government later abandoned. The demonstrations later morphed into a broader movement to erase Thaksin’s political influence.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-20/thai-army-chief-calls-for-calm-as-government-mulls-security-law.html

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Violence is spreading around he country. This just in from Udon

 

 

Kwanchai Praipana, a core leader of the red-shirt group and a close aide of ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, was shot in front of his house in Udon Thani.

He  was immediately admitted to Ake-udom hospital.

 

Kwanchai was hit by two shots from assault rifle. His condition was described as critical.

http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/red-shirt-leader-kwanchai-shot/

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I certainly hope things cool down before Feb 15th. I was there last time when things got ugly and it was scary. What a shame but who wants to take any chances. Anyone else considering cancelling?

I'm still planning on arriving Feb 4.  Only change I might make is to head straight to Pattaya instead of staying in BKK.  It definitely feels weird to be arriving 2 days after the scheduled election.  I think that this latest cold spell here in the Northeast has convinced me to give it a go.

 

I hope that the girls take a liking to me and keep their shoes on in Nidcha Bar PD!

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I had a call from Cathay Pacific regarding my connecting flight to BKK this morning. They said that due to the amount of cancelations they have reduced their scheduled flights and l would be put on a later flight to connect. Needless to say l wanted to know more and l was informed that they are watching the situation and to date have had over 30% of travellers cancel.

Lets see what happens in early Feb. Plan. B is looking more like a reality.

Cheers,

ET

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I had a call from Cathay Pacific regarding my connecting flight to BKK this morning. They said that due to the amount of cancelations they have reduced their scheduled flights and l would be put on a later flight to connect. Needless to say l wanted to know more and l was informed that they are watching the situation and to date have had over 30% of travellers cancel.

Lets see what happens in early Feb. Plan. B is looking more like a reality.

Cheers,

ET

 

 

I was planning a last minute trip myself for this upcoming week, but after evaluating the situation in BKK I decided to pass. 

The last thing I need is to be stuck in Thailand and not by choice. -Swedeman007

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Thaksin won handsomely (twice) and Yingluck has done the same (and it will be twice for her if the elections take place) in - and this is important -  generally FREE and FAIR elections.

 

If I was on the receiving end of four consecutive electoral thrashings, I might begin to think seriously if I was the one who had to change rather than crying 'foul' and trying to suspend the democratic process, which is what the Yellow Shirts seem to be in favour of doing.

 

Still, that's just my two pennies' worth, which is just one step removed from my saying 'Wouldn't it make sense if...,' before remembering that I am in Thailand...

 

I'd agree with you if it wasn't for the fact that these wins have been won on bought votes from usually non literate, non politically motivated rural folk... So far from FAIR I'm afraid.

 

Now I'm not saying that the 'Yellows' are any better, but in spite of my natural leaning to the grass roots contingent & the fact is the Yellows/ Dems will & have never done anything for the poor, they're not quite so blatantly after tearing the arse out of the country for what it's worth & turning the fucking place into a casino... Yes casinos & there's a lot more to that than you might think, especially as Taskin has his little endebted gambling buddy well & truely in his pocket.

 

Totally concur with your last statement though!!

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Here's my relatively uninformed take on things, as I reported to friends and family back home this morning.

Note I changed my location from Patts to Samui in the telling in order to protect my tattered reputation

------------------

Like the sly Chinese curse "May you live in exciting times" - think about it for a moment - we are amidst plenty of excitement in Thailand at the moment.

Ok, that's a bit of an exaggeration, as I and the other westerners here in Koh Samui are pretty much dealing with the normal humdrum of life in Thailand, far from the rumbles of"excitement" in Bangkok. But these could prove to be very exciting for the Thai populace depending on the actions of the next few days.

Big deal at the moment are the impending elections coming a week from Tuesday (I write this on a mild and sunny Sunday morning). The embattled government of Yingluck Shinawatra has agreed to hold new elections in an effort to appease the "Yellow Shirt" protestors, but the protestors have said they will boycott the elections as they know that the Shinawatra regime is heavily favored by the impoverished rural majority. They are demanding an unelected "peoples council" be given control, as they know this (or a military coup) are the only routes back to power for their side.

Think of it in it's simplest terms as a very polite revolution of the Royalists/Wealthy Elite who support the King and the old status quo, against the Populist/Corrupt Shinawatra regime who have realized that providing services and relief to the impoverished rural (agrarian) majority is a simple and effective way to win elections and maintain power and their position at the head of the feeding trough of corruption that is endemic to Thai politics.

There are no real Good Guys in this fight, which also apparently has no real middle ground. This fight has been going on for a decade or more and could lead to civil war if not handled well.

The big complaint for farangs (western foreigners) as of last night is that the bars were closed in advance of the elections, which by Thai law means no alcohol between Saturday evening and the election to be held in 10 days. Not a problem for me, but my buddies are plenty pissed off.

The protestors are demanding that elections be delayed, and the PM will meet with them tomorrow to discuss. PM Yingluck wants to force protest movement to disband and promise not to block efforts to hold elections at a later date in return for delay, but protestors know that no matter when election is held, they will not prevail in rural provinces where majority of Thais reside.

Meanwhile, the government has declared a 60 day State of Emergency that gives sweeping powers. Today they have put protestors on notice that the leaders will soon be arrested, and any bloodshed that results will be on their hands.

Before you start feeling empathy for the "Red Shirt" administration of Yingluck Shinawatra, consider what occasioned the current civil unrest. To do so we must look back at recent Thai history.

Current problems began with Yingluck's older brother Thaksin Shinawatra. When he and his Red Shirt compadres were elected a decade or so again, they had campaigned on providing rights and access to the rural majority, which of course was extremely popular with the poor majority but not so much with the Royalist/Urban Elite that have ruled for a century. And when I talk about the King, remember that Thailand was previously called Siam. You may recall a famous musical about the King of Siam called "The King And I" which was based on fact. Really.

Anyway, Thaksin ("tak-sin") and his cronies proceeded to create a political juggernaut by providing benefits like power, education, and medical benefits to the rural populace. But as I understand it this was not done out of egalitarianism, but rather as a way to ensure they had the power to control the government as they systematically stuffed their pockets. Thaksin is a multi-billionaire and was eventually overcome by a military coup that resulted in him fleeing to self-imposed exile in Dubai to avoid (apparently well-founded) corruption charges that remain in effect.

Let's skip the next coup and jump forward to today. Thaksin's baby sister Yingluck was elected by a landslide 2 years ago, but screwed up in dramatic fashion 4 months ago by sliding an amnesty bill through parliament at 4AM which would have "wiped the slate clean" and allowed big bro to return Scot Free.

Yingluck was long known to be a mere mouthpiece for brother Thaksin who was really pulling the strings from Dubai, but this bit of underhanded policy was a bridge too far. It enraged the Yellow Shirts, who have now effectively shut down Bangkok by means of mostly peaceful blockades and demonstrations in 6 or 7 of the crucial intersections in BKK, as well as taking over government offices. Think 1960's American campus protests, but on a larger scale and held by the moms and dads of the hippy protestors and you're getting warm. To show power the only way they can, they march up and down blowing whistles from 6am to late in the evening.

It's not all peaceful though, as there are unknown factions that have been shooting and even throwing grenades at some of the protest leaders. It's unknown whether these nefarious folk are from the opposition Red Shirts, outside agitators, or even radical members of the Yellow Shirts trying to create open warfare.

Meanwhile, all is calm here on Samui as long as you don't count the disgruntled expats who now have to drink at home for the next 8 or 9 days, dependent upon the results of the discussions with PM about election delays tomorrow.

Or depending on decisions by the election commission.

Or depending on decision by the Thai Courts. Who the hell knows.

My only complaint is that I couldn't get the breakfast I wanted this morning.

The hotel next door advertises a buffet until 10:30 and the poster shows eggs, bacon and pancakes. I marched over, paid my 110 baht ($2.85) and was shown to a bunch of questionable steam tables holding fried potatoes, rice, ham floating in greasy water, unknown Russian comestibles, and a platter of oily Thai sausages. I asked where were the eggs, bacon and pancakes? Thai dude shrugged and said "Is only picture" - in other words, the advertisement doesn't bear any resemblance to the actual breakfast on offer! I was able to get my money back but only after a bit of argument.

As the expats say, "Oh well - T.I.T." (This Is Thailand)

Sent from my iPad

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I think that the " corruption amnesty " move was bound to provoke the yellows. The Reds screwed  up.

 

Can you imagine if Thaksin actually attempted to come back with the slate wiped clean...there would be more blood than the Battle of Austerlitz

 

Its actually worse than that, the original bill was an Amnesty Bill for non-officials involved in the 2010 troubles. The revised bill was a 'Nullification Act' that covered everything and everyone (except Le Majest charges)  from 2003 to 2013.

That means Thaksin's guilty verdict would be erased, he would be owed all the money that was confiscated (plus interest)  and their would be no restriction on him running for office ( an amnesty act might have blocked him, since it excused the conviction but did not erase it).

 

The act would have also covered Yingluck and her cronies for all the corruption involved in the Rice deal.

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I'm thinking its going to get more dangerous now.

This afternoon Suthin Taratin one of the protest leaders of the "student" group NPSRT was shot dead by a bunch of reds in Bangkok. He was speaking on stage near Wat Sri Lam in outer Bangkok.

The NPSRT was one of the more violent protests group. They were the one who threatened to shut down air traffic a few weeks ago.


Expect reprisals.

Needless to say it's not a good sign when a gang of armed reds confront protesters in the Middle of the afternoon.

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Yea, somehow I still don't know the result but doubt I wont find out by Monday.

I just figured I'd see the games early this week but somehow it didn't happen.

I'm still planning on arriving Feb 4. Only change I might make is to head straight to Pattaya instead of staying in BKK. It definitely feels weird to be arriving 2 days after the scheduled election. I think that this latest cold spell here in the Northeast has convinced me to give it a go.

I hope that the girls take a liking to me and keep their shoes on in Nidcha Bar PD!

RS, I'm heading into Bangkok on February 5 for eight nights, maybe our paths will cross, I'd love to see you

Edit: just read SNCC's latest post, maybe I will end up having to forfeit my Bangkok reservations. I checked on a go to, and the hotel I booked has a "no cancellation no refund" policy

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By the way,  just letting you all know this is getting just about ZERO coverage in the USA, the unbelievable situation happening in Kiev also. CNN carries the occasional blurb, but for the most part Yanks have much more interest in the arrest and 2-hour internment of teenage heartthrob Justin Bieber.   True; if you want any news of this stuff you pretty much have to get it off the 'net, unless your TV gets Al Jazeera U.S.  or the BBC.

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