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COVID-19 in Thailand 2020: "too good to be true" ? & "the worse is yet to come?"


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(Bloomberg) -- It’s hard to imagine a more luxurious place to spend two weeks of quarantine than the Anantara Phuket Suites & Villas in Thailand, where visitors are pampered in private residences that can have their own pool and courtyard.

Yet more than three months after the resort and more than a hundred like it reopened to extended-stay travelers in an attempt to revive Thailand’s battered economy, foreign arrivals have failed to meet even rock-bottom expectations. Just 346 overseas visitors have entered the country on average each month on special visas since October, according to the Thailand Longstay Company, which helps facilitate the program. That’s well below the government’s target of about 1,200 and a tiny fraction of the more than 3 million who came before the pandemic.

The tepid response to Thailand’s highly publicized reopening illustrates the difficulties facing tourist-dependent countries as they try to shore up economic growth while also protecting citizens from Covid-19 before vaccines become widely available.

Thailand had hoped to lure retirees escaping the European winter and others who could stay for an extended period. They would have to go through quarantine, but that could be done in the comfort of high-end resorts in a country that had been relatively unscathed by the pandemic. After two weeks, Thailand would be theirs to roam for as long as nine months.

The lack of interest is adding pressure on Thai policy makers, who have struggled to accommodate both industry players calling for relaxed quarantine rules and public-health experts warning against putting people in danger. All the while, as the beaches stay empty, many tourism-related companies are going out of business. To make matters worse, virus cases have jumped in the country.


“It’s really challenging to balance the demands of the tourism industry and locals,” said Bhummikitti Ruktaengam, president of the Phuket Tourist Association. “I understand how hard it is to be stuck in a room for 14 days. I’ve done it. But the safety of the people gets priority because tourists come and go but locals live here.”

In 2019, Thailand received more than $60 billion in tourism revenue from about 40 million visitors. The industry contributed about a fifth of gross domestic product before the pandemic, compared to about 10% globally.

But six months without any foreign arrivals followed by months with just a trickle has battered the sector. At least 931 registered tourism-related companies closed last year, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of data from the Commerce Ministry’s Department of Business Development. The real number is probably much higher as many tourism businesses aren’t registered in any database.

On Thailand’s famed resort islands, the situation is particularly bad. Take Phuket, which got about 90% of its tourism income from foreign visitors before the pandemic. At Patong, its main tourist town, a once busy street of bars and nightclubs lies empty. Bangla Road is lined with shuttered businesses, with chairs stacked on tables and chains barring access. Dust gathers on the barstools and countertops. The few places that are open have barely any customers.

“When there are no foreigners, the area is just empty,” said Rungarun Loiluen, who works at The Kitchen, a restaurant and bar at the end of Bangla Road. She’s one of eight employees who kept their jobs from about 30 before the pandemic, albeit with fewer working hours. “There’s barely anyone walking down the road.”

On the next block over, Hotel Clover Patong Phuket has slashed its prices by as much as 75% to attract domestic travelers instead of its usual clientele of American, Russian and Chinese tourists. Still, it ran at about 10% occupancy in December, a period that used to be overbooked, according to Jessada Srivichian, the hotel’s country financial manager.

Go to Phuket for the Beaches, Stay for the Food and Adventure

Despite the government’s efforts to help tourism businesses, such as subsidizing the cost of hotel rooms, meals and airfares, domestic tourists who usually travel just on weekends can’t fill the gap left by foreign visitors. Even though only about half the country’s hotels have reopened, the average occupancy rate is only about 34%, Yuthasak Supasorn, governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand, said in an interview in December.

“I’ve been in Phuket for 20 years and have never seen it this quiet,” Hotel Clover’s Jessada said. “We need international visitors. We’re not thinking of making a profit but instead focusing on minimizing losses, because as long as there’s a quarantine requirement, people won’t come.”

The government should consider waiving the two-week isolation requirement for visitors from regions of countries with no local infections for more than 60 days, Vichit Prakobgosol, president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents, said in late September. He was hoping to have the rule relaxed for visitors from some parts of China, Thailand’s biggest source of tourism income. But no such deal was concluded.

“It seems impractical to double the duration of a trip to satisfy the local quarantine requirements,” said Ron Cooper, an American photographer and business consultant who traveled abroad for leisure several times a year before the pandemic. “Add to that the cost of staying in a hotel for two unproductive weeks -- not a very attractive proposition.”

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/thailand-sold-itself-as-a-paradise-covid-retreat-no-one-came-1.1549383


Thailand’s approach contrasts with other tourism destinations that have been less cautious. The Maldives reopened to overseas tourists in July without requiring a quarantine, although a negative Covid-19 test is needed. The archipelago has seen more than 172,000 arrivals since then, according to Maldives Immigration data. While new infections increased in the aftermath, they’ve since declined.

“It was bold, daring to open up the Maldives with all the risks attached to it,” said Dirk De Cuyper, chief executive officer of S Hotels & Resorts Pcl, whose December occupancy rate at Maldives properties was 70%. And that might be bad news for Thailand, he said. “Many travelers won’t buy into quarantine, particularly when other countries are opening up and they have no quarantine rules.”

But most Thais opposed the reopening plan and are unlikely to want relaxed quarantine rules, partly because local residents live close to the resorts, unlike in the Maldives where properties are often isolated on their own islands.

“If I had to choose between health and income, I’d choose health,” said Wiparad Noiphao, a fruit and vegetable vendor at Banzaan fresh market in Patong. “We have to prioritize safety.”

Majority of Thais Oppose Lifting Tourist Ban on Virus Fears

As a compromise, the government’s Covid-19 task force discussed shortening the quarantine period to 10 days. But that has yet to be implemented because of concerns about new infections. The government has also approved six golf resorts as quarantine centers.

“Any modification to the original plan would mean higher risks,” said Thira Woratanarat, an associate professor at Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Medicine. “There are many examples of free international travel that led to a resurgence,” he said, giving the example of Europe. “We should wait until the global virus situation has improved.”

Cockfighting, Gambling Make Thailand’s Covid Fight Tougher

A resurgence of the virus has also weakened the case for easing quarantine rules. Thailand has seen Covid-19 infections more than double to more than 11,000 in less than a month. An outbreak that began in seafood markets and migrant communities has spread throughout the country. The government curbed travel in some high-risk regions but has so far refrained from imposing a broad lockdown. It has also extended its travel-subsidy program.

Ultimately, the country won’t fully reopen until vaccines are widely available, government officials have said. Thailand plans to offer the shot developed by Sinovac Biotech Ltd. to frontline health workers and those with underlying conditions before the end of February. From May, it will give one by AstraZeneca Plc and the University of Oxford, aiming to inoculate at least 33 million people, about half the nation’s population, by the end of 2021.

Questions remain about how international tourism will function as more people become vaccinated worldwide. Vaccine passports are seen as a way to get people traveling again, but whether and how they will be implemented is still unclear. It’s not even known whether vaccinated people can transmit the virus.

Thai Beaches Won’t Reopen Fully Until Vaccines Become Available

Taking all this into account, the Bank of Thailand estimates that even in 2022, overseas visitors will still fall well short of the 40 million in 2019. It projects that 5.5 million people will visit this year and 23 million in 2022.

The economy is estimated to have contracted 6% in 2020, the biggest decline since the Asian financial crisis. It’s projected to expand 3.5%-4.5% in 2021, according to the National Economic and Social Development Council.

Despite the hit to the economy, the Phuket Tourist Association’s Bhummikitti says Thailand’s cautious reopening plan was the correct option, and the embattled tourism industry has little choice but to wait for vaccines to take hold.

“We can’t close our borders forever, and we can’t let people in without strict measures in place,” he said. “So this controlled, gradual reopening is the best approach.”

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/thailand-sold-itself-as-a-paradise-covid-retreat-no-one-came-1.1549383

 

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look...basically ALL hotels in LOS are shuttered, for these hmmm, selfish? greedy? let's say pricks...to make deals to be THE quarantine place is detestable. In fact as they will be EMPTY for a long time to come they COULD just charge a modest amount, say $20 a night.  Actually IF the government gave a shit about the Thai economy, they could give tax breaks or some inducement for them to do it.  I'd be happy to stay in a NICE hotel room for a couple weeks at 20 a night (WITH FOOD).  Love the "Thailand had hoped to lure retirees escaping the European winter and others who could stay for an extended period." line :) um, you mean RICH PEOPLE. (who are also the only ones going to the Maldives. let's be frank).

Really I don't see how anything near normal can happen for maybe years. You can't just go letting in people willy nilly, that's as bad as the idiots that gather in numbers for every holiday. Seems to me that's one of the top ways it gets spread, looking at figures and chart peaks. After Thanksgiving, Christmas, new years eve.

You COULD get SOME tourism with incentive quarantine programs. Still, they are not going to see a big rise in folks coming to stay for 6 months or more.  Personally I'd not set foot on an airplane for less than a 30 day stay and only did that once in 12 yrs, preferring 3 or 4 months. For the 2 week tourist, it's over.  Even at a month, half the time stuck in a hotel room? I don't see it.

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Personally I hate to see the mass tourism return. I'd go for a long stay as I always do once they ditch the quarantine, but unfortunately I don't think you can have both. Quarantine gone= tourism back. Just because we westerners get a vaccine shot doesn't mean they're opening up. If they decide to vaccinate all their citizens before letting us in, we can forget 2021. They haven't even started yet.

Btw , are chinese allowed in now? It's their New Year coming up soon.

 

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BANGKOK (Reuters) - Two private hospitals in Thailand have ordered millions of doses of coronavirus vaccines ahead of regulatory approval, adding to government orders of vaccines as the Southeast Asian country tackles a second wave of the virus.

Thonburi's medical centres plan to offer two vaccine injections for 3,200 baht 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-thailand/thai-private-hospitals-reserve-covid-19-vaccines-ahead-of-approval-idUSKBN29N0XK

 

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2 hours ago, JustSumGai said:

Imagine how much money money lenders will make to make loans to the poor for these shots.

Why would money lenders be making money. My understanding is the shots are free for Thai citizens as long as they get them in the province in which they are registered.

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On 1/18/2021 at 11:31 AM, JustSumGai said:

I'd be happy to stay in a NICE hotel room for a couple weeks at 20 a night (WITH FOOD). 

You want a nice hotel with food for $20 a night? Should these businesses be allowed to make money?

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  • 2 weeks later...

I want an alternative to LUXURY.  Usually I stay at a nice guesthouse just off Thong lor.  What they want for the ONLY quarantine is usually enough to pay for 10 nights at my usual.  Another thing...why can't you just order a meal and get it from a street vendor or food court? Way I see it IS that ALL hotels, etc. are basically empty.  What would you rather have? 10 booked rooms at 100+ a night or 50 at 20 or 30 (whatever would cover paying desk staff and cleaning ladies n such).   This reminds me of their big announcement years back about shifting to "quality" tourists (that means rich, cut the B.S. geez).  

I'd be happy to pay for my meals and beverages as well btw.  

Beyond the question of just how many would like to spend 2 weeks in virtual lock up is the question of just how much could you do with the 1500 or more that costs.   I don't see any even as low as $500 each week. 

My usual stay is $150 (or a little less last I was there) for 2 weeks.  The new option is more like 150 for ONE NIGHT.

Obviously it can't be done for $10 a night at a guesthouse.  Security concerns, dorms an all that, but is there no way to make a cheaper option?

How bout Making the Miami a quarantine? that's around 1100 baht a night last I checked.  I love the cheesey late 60s RnR  vibe there and ya could sit outside your room for a smoke I figure and LOOK at the pool from all floors hahaha.

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On 1/19/2021 at 1:44 AM, ozzie said:

Why would money lenders be making money. My understanding is the shots are free for Thai citizens as long as they get them in the province in which they are registered.

in a country where it's routine to pay a little extra to go to the head of the line, I suppose you might not need to get a loan.  

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  • 1 month later...

Bangkok may soon be classified as a “red” zone under maximum control to prevent the spread of Covid-19 following the rise of infections linked to bars and entertainment venues, primarily off Sukhumvit Road in Thong Lor and Ekkamai. 

So far, 71 cases are linked to bars and entertainment venues in Bangkok. Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul says it has reached a “critical level.”

If the restrictions are approved by the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration, venues will need to close at 9pm and alcohol will be banned to prevent gatherings that risk the spread of Covid-19.

https://thethaiger.com/news/bangkok/bangkok-may-soon-be-classified-as-a-red-zone-following-rise-of-covid-19-cases

 

 

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It looks like the worst is yet to come.

Most expats have felt that there was extremely little personal danger from Covid in Thailand.  This has abruptly shifted in the last few days.   It's not just the numbers but where these numbers are coming from.  There are fewer degrees of separation between the typical Pattaya sexpat and Thonglor clubgoers than between the sexpats and Burmese migrant workers.  

Here's Tim's take on the current situation:

 

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1 hour ago, Pdoggg said:

Thonglor clubgoers

‘HiSo Thais that should know better’.  :biggrin:

That guy is good, I watch his vlogs. He's wrong in the end though regarding actual numbers. I still think its a lot higher and pray 

to buddha it wont kick off like it did in Europe, Thailands healthcare couldn't cope.  Stay inside you expats!

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  • 3 months later...

When I started this thread exactly one year ago I knew the answer to my own question "is the worse yet to come?"  was YES!

What I did not know was that it would take this long to be confirmed.  I also did not expect that the surge would come AFTER the availability of vaccines, which for the Thais dying now of covid amounts to a cruel "dying at the beach"...

A couple months ago, covid infection rates and deaths started to edge up in Thailand but it would have been statistically premature for me to call it an accelerating trend as opposed to what might have been a temporary spike.

Now (ONE YEAR LATER than in Europe or Western Hemisphere) the trend is clearly there for Thailand and whatever happens in the next weeks/months covid deaths will continue high as many thousands of vulnerable Thais are already infected, hospitalized and in the process of dying.   Here is the data underscoring the accelerating trend:

751667103_Thailandcovid.png.cd6af2c85a6fbad887319ff0a0d92fc6.png

Source:  Worldometers website; Thai authorities.

 

I would like to share some further personal observations:

1 -  I still find it unlikely there were so few covid deaths (less than 100) until April 2021.  There was likely some covid death data supression by the Thai authorities, but there is no reason to believe the situation took epidemic proportions such as is happening now and is no longer possible to supress...

2 - The Thais (and elsewhere in SE Asia) did well and gained precious time.  Even if thousands of Thais are going to die of covid in the weeks ahead, the toll will be far less than it would have been a year ago if the epidemics caught on earlier.   One year later,  many Thais are already vaccinated and medical science knows a lot more about treating covid... Relative to the population, the covid-death rates in Thailand will be a fraction of what they are in Europe (bearing in mind that it is the eldest of the elderly who die the most of covid and Thailand has lower life expectancy so there was no reason in the first place to expect death rates to be as high as in Europe).

3 -  The Thai authorities only big failure is not prioritizing covid vaccines sooner and more widespread.  I don't know their constraints but from what I read the rigid Thai bureaucratics and social biases are slowing delivery  (@admins:  if you d rather not see this posted pls erase the last sentence and this one).  A lot of Thais are dying that could have been avoided.

4 -  The sex industry should be Thailand's last priority and I actually think the Thais were excessively lenient to allow CSWs and sexpats to remain concentrated in Pattaya.  The CSWs are a youthful population with no one vaccinated and practically all of them group-sheltering in small rooms where covid will now spread like wildfire.   The sexpats and farang business owners are very lucky to be allowed to stay in Thailand.   Most are promiscuous and continue to pay for sex during covid (I would have!).  Thailand could easily lower the sexpat risk by not renewing visas and business licenses...  In the process, they would also get rid of many low-budget farangs who no longer bring much value to the advancing Thai economy unless those farangs are pouring their live savings to build houses in Isan in the name of their Thai lovers ...

5 - Wishful thinking has been a constant here and at PY as to when we can travel back to Thailand and what we will find.  Unlike BMs who talked about going back in the summer of 2020, then 2021, and now for Xmas/New Year 2021-22, my prognostics were never and are not good.  I also don't prognosticate we will find Thailand the way we liked it, but that would be a whole other thread...

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS:  Let's brace for the peak of the Thai covid surge in the months ahead.  Sex tourists we need to continue to get laid elsewhere.   Sexpats GET THE VACCINE THERE NOW or IMMEDIATELY FLY TO YOUR COUNTRY TO GET IT!   You don't want to be hospitalized during the surge competing with hundreds of Thais for limited hospital care and I hope this post helps someone prevent it...

R

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I have no time for a long comment, but I will come back to last year. 

I was considered as one of the most pessimistic guys as far as Covid was concerned. As a matter of fact, I believed that international travels would be suspened for about one year and that vaccines would allow a return a normal situation starting in March 2021. Now, we can see that the Covid crisis turns up to be more complex than ever. 

Hot weather countries were protected by 2 factors : 1) temperature. The original variant of Covid's optimum temperature for transmission was around +8°c (45 to 50 °F) what made it develop in European and north American countries first. 2) The virus spread easily among a population of older people. this year's new variants are able to spread in hot temperatures and attack younger people. South eastern Asian countries became new targets. 

Another aspect of the crisis that I suspected happened in Vietnam is probably the same in Thailand : these countries didn't or couldn't test the population so they couldn't measure how the virus spread from an assymptomatic case to another. They didn't measure small flus that were actually covid cases. regretfully, the pandemic is now exploding what might favor new variants. Let's hope our vaccines will remain efficient. 

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12 hours ago, Rom said:

The sexpats and farang business owners are very lucky to be allowed to stay in Thailand.   Most are promiscuous and continue to pay for sex during covid (I would have!).  Thailand could easily lower the sexpat risk by not renewing visas and business licenses...  In the process, they would also get rid of many low-budget farangs who no longer bring much value to the advancing Thai economy unless those farangs are pouring their live savings to build houses in Isan in the name of their Thai lovers ...

Hey, I resent this.  I still wanna sit in my singha beater and cargoshorts nursing a Leo beer for hours watching the world riff raff go by on Soi Buakhao then  exploit a third world boy in a skirt for 30 bucks.  I like to think I contribute to the thai economy by buying things and using services, or are you saying the vendors and bars are not paying taxes? ( :biggrin: )

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On 7/18/2021 at 10:07 AM, Rom said:

I also don't prognosticate we will find Thailand the way we liked it, but that would be a whole other thread...

I was discussing this very topic only last Friday with a friend of mine, and old Thai hand.  We concluded it really depends on what we enjoy when there, and if that is gone would it make a big difference.  For me Pattaya is once a week in Jomtien, one maybe two nights a week in TJs, the odd night in the Pattaya Beer Garden, most afternoons in the shade under a tree on Dongtan or else a long wander out beyond Wongamat beach with the camera.  Simple things, and if one or two of the night life options went I’d still find a work around to have a good time.

So even if half the bars that cater for our scene closed, along with all the agogo I’d hardly notice it, and my trips would continue more or less as before.  
 

Back on topic, Earn has told me there have been no reported cases in her home village yet,  but that’s not to say it isn’t already there.  Many are holding out for one of the, what they consider, better vaccines.  Like most places it’s a race now between the vaccines and the variants, Earn’s dad has kidney and liver issues so it may well be a struggle if he catches it sadly. 

 

 

 

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Yes I would still like to go, if only for some sun in January/February. I'd be happy if there were some places where I could listen to some live music in the evening, preferably Country.   

But I might go anywhere sunny if there's not too much hassle with testing and quarantine.

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4 hours ago, Quietguy said:

Yes I would still like to go, if only for some sun in January/February. I'd be happy if there were some places where I could listen to some live music in the evening, preferably Country.   

 

Take it easy out there pardner !

Untitled-1.jpg

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Posted (edited)
On 7/19/2021 at 11:56 AM, bumblebee said:

I was discussing this very topic [ of post-covid Pattaya being less enticing ] and concluded it really depends on what we enjoy when there, and if that is gone would it make a big difference ...

I think we all have favorite Pattaya landmarks and routines that essentially bring us back to those first 2 or 3 trips when we were discovering the wonders of Pattaya in a crescendo of sex experimentation and life-changing exhilaration at just how awesome it all was.  Then we keep coming back for more trips, some move there, and it’s still awesome but never quite again that original awesome of glorious exploration of a new galaxy… But we keep trying anyway.  Like how heroine users get addicted trying to recreate the mind-blowing high of their first shoot.  Or if you never did hard drugs:  think Viagra!  That iron rod you got for 3 days the first few times you took half a pill.  It still works great afterwards but never the same … on your cock or in your mind !

In my case “my Pattaya” predates the globalization of ladyboys and the PY brain-washing of the LWVB, Sensations, Jimbo’s latest cabaret joint, Petesie’s bar, etc etc.  None of that existed when I started going there.  Not even PY existed.  I used to stay at one of those 3 parallel sois where the Penthouse Hotel was built and it had right there more than I could possibly handle during my stays.   20 or so basic beer bars with fresh-of-the-farm Issan ladies and plenty of young ones at that; 10 or more gogo bars rivaling the best at Nana Plaza in staff numbers and quality; 4 or 5 legit-shady massage joints;  and even the Boys Town soi, which was not my cup of tea but I could not resist peeking.  For ladyboys I would walk to sois VC-Sunee or bike to Hi-Boss where I was often the only shopper of pristine hormone-free, no silicon sissies…  During daytime, I would just walk up and down Beach Road shopping junk and spotting more places to explore… invariably accompanied by the overnight belle which back in the day all insisted to stay with me…

Fast forward to now:

The Penthouse sois -  all but 2 or 3 of the beer bars closed and the 2 or 3 have only 1 or 2 old hoes who are not even interested in being barfined.   No go-gos left. Boys Town all but dead with some Thai dudes older than me in white underpants..

Soi VC and Sunnee Plaza -  No more twinks and ladyboys.  Accommodation for the Islamics as far as I can tell.

High Boss – closed like 10 years ago.  Plenty of ladyboys to be found on soi 6, but almost all have bolt-ons, nosejobs, and duck lips

Beach Road – The sea and the shopping are still there.  But the front row bars with fuckable ladies stacked like sardines are but a beautiful memory.  So is Tahitian Queen where I used to stop for my first beer & cop a feel of the day.

LTs and clingers -  Going the way of the dodo.  Especially the GGs ...

I think you get my point.    Personal favorites aside, Pattaya has changed and it was because of globalization and economic development:  MORE MONGER DEMAND, LESS WHORES SUPPLY.   Covid has not reversed these dynamics and probably aggravated them due to bar closures and CSWs finding alternative livelihoods.   There will still be enough whores when we go back but what we will enjoy the most will be the memories.

Edited by Rom
Fuckballs! I must be really getting old and tired to write this kind of post
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Great post, Rom.

On 7/19/2021 at 7:39 PM, Rom said:

to those first 2 or 3 trips when we were discovering the wonders of Pattaya in a crescendo of sex experimentation and life-changing exhilaration at just how awesome it all was.

It will never be the same. Many trips later its so obvious. I'm too old now to discover new hunting grounds but even if I had the stamina I doubt I could find another place similar to Pattaya. Sweet memories. I hope we can get back there and if  only 50% of all the nice ladymen pre covid would still be there I'd be happy. I want to revisit Bkk again, a place I deliberately skipped the last few trips.

I can't stand noise pollution, crowds, traffic and all the other old-man symptoms  anymore. Maybe I should just stay home and live on memories.

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7 hours ago, seven said:

Maybe I should just stay home and live on memories.

I for one am thankful that I atleast have these memories of trips gone by. Imagine being at the begining of our trips brought forward to this current era, we simply would have no chance of enjoying what we had enjoyed in the past. :drinks: Here's to all those friends and memories of really happy times.

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  • Pdoggg changed the title to COVID-19 in Thailand 2020: "too good to be true" ? & "the worse is yet to come?"

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