Bangkok Violence Escalating

[RocketSquirrel]

I arrive 2/4.  I am changing from BKK to Pattaya for now

[Snick]

Thats what PT wants  ........... what they get is whole other matter.

 

 

The courts are aligned against PT, and last week they said election could be postponed if EC and govt agreed. EC said yes, govt said no.

The courts can now easily say the responsibility for a botched election is on the government, plus the constitution clearly says the election must take place nationwide on the same day, which it won't.

 

And keep in mind the 2006 coup took place under similar circumstances when 3 rounds of elections still couldn't fill parliament and TRT was caught creating fake candidates to get around the only one candidate in a district problem (new constitution removes that by saying there has to be a winner in 3rd round even if they don't get 20% of voters).

[Guest JustSumGai]

well, I went to Siam Paragon to get pipe tobacco on Friday learly evening and Sukhumvit was all but BLOCKED up to Chit lom. Siam Paragon was CLOSED at 6pm. Went back late Sat afternoon and it was a a freakin street fair. Tons of nice stuff to buy on tables all along on both sides with ONE lane in the middle heading to Bearing. other way was blocked. Got some nice free food, a thai silk shawl, a belt etc. Managed to get my tobacco and some nice Belgian spiced rum, sauntered along, stopping for a sip, lit a pipe, sat and watched, stroll, shop, stop sip and watch, stroll, repeat. Very nice. LOTS of thai flag stuff and Block Bangkok, restart Thailand stuff on sale.

Went to Nana last night stopped in at cascades to see Sindy, first got told drinks ok. THEN no alcohol, police coming. Lady drinks 150 my COKE was same price as Beam on ice, chatted with Sindy some, said hello to her big friend a bit and left. Going to Cambodia today, border hop. Back around 8pm I hope. To get back on topic, on the way home on BTS saw Asoke blocked by large number of ppl SITTING across the whole street WELL and EVENLY spaced out to maximixe effect. 

more to come :)

[Snick]

I love the Rama I street fair in front of Paragon. Such a nice walk from Chit Lom to MBK :)

[SiamSam]

Suffice to say: "Fuck Bangkok" until things simmer down. 

[Snick]

I thought Fuck Bangkok was always the plan !

[ArchieBunker]

Only in Thailand you get a political protest and a street mall breaks out!!! ill be going out here soon.  I see the Yellows attacked Chuvit!  Thats it I have had enough.  You cannot attack Chuvit!!!

[ArchieBunker]

Just a quick update.  I did go to a polling station and my Thai friend was not allowed to vote.  It seems as though the Brownshirts, ooops I mean the Yellows, did not allow the pollsters or the ballots to make it to the station.  they are saying that they will have yet another chance to vote in 3 weeks.  I will believe it when it happens.  The entire thing is a sorry, sad state of affairs.  One would hope a country would aspire to something greater than these types of 3rd world shenanigians.....

[ArchieBunker]

As an aside to the last post, after the aborted voting I took a litle walk about the area.  The mob was out in the Ratchasprong area and there really arent too many people there at all.  The area around MBK was mobbed with the mob.  Went into Central World and it was really dead as you would expect.  

[Jimslim]

I watched a Thai protester getting interviewed on BBC telling us that his country needed more democracy .

 

Without a hint of irony he was blocking people getting to the Polling Station to vote .

[SiamSam]

  Hahahahahaha good one Mr. Slim.

[Guest JustSumGai]

I watched a Thai protester getting interviewed on BBC telling us that his country needed more democracy .

 

Without a hint of irony he was blocking people getting to the Polling Station to vote .

this is the crux of the dilemma to me. They THINK they want democracy but CLEARLY DO NOT.  Appointing a hand picked committee to redesign a government is anything BUT democratic. Seems to me that ever since this representative monarchy or whatever it's called, thay have just not been able to get a handle on the concept. If they ain't got closer than THIS to democracy, I think it's not gonna happen. One Thai woman told me Issaan ppl were "innocent and naive and if you do one nice thing for them they will vote for you 100 years". I wondered if she thought one of  her kind should show them how to vote properly in the booth. 

      The parallels to the MESS in the States are not a suprise to me.  The idea that someone can vote just because they draw breath scares a large segment of well educated, upper income voters back home too. They should learn from us...just make the thing such a farce that people stop voting, except for the "right" people of course. Then too, make runnin for office SO expensive that none of the rabble can run.

[deepthroat]

Seeing that they made it through this weekends contentious polling with only one outbreak of gunfire, I think this bodes very well for the next couple of weeks.

I'm no long-term expert like Snick or some of the others, but I do read the papers every day and have been watching the situation closely from Patts. If I had to lay a bet down, it would be that things will remain relatively calm/safe for for farangs in Bangkok for the next week to two weeks, until whatever occasions the next big confrontation between reds and yellows. Another vote, a court decision, something that moves things along definitively, and I don't see anything on the immediate horizon.

Then again, no one really knows. The whole situation could change tomorrow. But I am planning to hit the big mango later this week, and expect that I will have a great time, and the girls will be overjoyed to see me in their bars. The weather is the nicest it's been in the five years I've been coming here, the exchange rate is the highest it's been for the past many years, there's 10-15 girls for every customer, and it sounds like there is a round-the-clock street festival going on in many of the major intersections.

As Ed Harris said so stirringly in the film Apollo 13: "With all due respect, sir, I believe this will be our finest hour."

[seven]

I watched a Thai protester getting interviewed on BBC telling us that his country needed more democracy .

 

Without a hint of irony he was blocking people getting to the Polling Station to vote .

Great!  I honestly don't think the majority of the thai people know what democracy is.

[ArchieBunker]

Seeing that they made it through this weekends contentious polling with only one outbreak of gunfire, I think this bodes very well for the next couple of weeks.

I'm no long-term expert like Snick or some of the others, but I do read the papers every day and have been watching the situation closely from Patts. If I had to lay a bet down, it would be that things will remain relatively calm/safe for for farangs in Bangkok for the next week to two weeks, until whatever occasions the next big confrontation between reds and yellows. Another vote, a court decision, something that moves things along definitively, and I don't see anything on the immediate horizon.

Then again, no one really knows. The whole situation could change tomorrow. But I am planning to hit the big mango later this week, and expect that I will have a great time, and the girls will be overjoyed to see me in their bars. The weather is the nicest it's been in the five years I've been coming here, the exchange rate is the highest it's been for the past many years, there's 10-15 girls for every customer, and it sounds like there is a round-the-clock street festival going on in many of the major intersections.

As Ed Harris said so stirringly in the film Apollo 13: "With all due respect, sir, I believe this will be our finest hour."

 

 

Look there are so many stupid people voting on BOTH sides.  I am talking in the USA of course.  All you have to do is look at many "man in the street" interviews to see how many people are totally CLUELESS!!!!

 

The feelings of the Brownshirts, ooops I mean Yellow shirts, i.e. the Yingluck supporters form Issan are stupid buffaloes and an urbane denizen if Bangkok should have THEIR votes count 10 to 1 stoopid Issan buffalo.  Thats akin to saying people on welfare should not vote and only landowner can vote.  How about only people who net PAY taxes can vote??  Obviously this wouldnt fly in a Western style democracy but this is exactly what the Brownshirts are calling for.

[Snick]

Its more complicated than that, there are a few people saying Reds are stupid and should't be able to vote. But most are arguing the reds are too easily bought to vote for Thaksin/Yingluck they want to change the system to prevent populist measures like the rice scheme which they see as a fancy way to buy votes.

And their have been many Reds who when interviewed say they know Thaksin is corrupt, BUT he helps them and raised their standard of living, which is True.

 

Question is when does a populist scheme stop being about helping low income and just become about buying their vote....let me know when you got an answer to that.

[cobber32]

Well said Snick; and if only there was an easy answer to the question you pose; and if whoever/whatever takes over as government were to abolish the rice pledging scheme, would that make everyone happy? some yes, some no.

Honestly, there are so many complexities facing any government in Thailand; difficult times ahead.

[Snick]

Personally I'm ok with helping out the farmers (every country does it !), but direct subsidies to small farmers is the way to go.

 

With the rice pledging scheme about 18% of the benefits went to the small Farmers, and everything else went to rich people (millers, politicians, etc,,). Thats from a local newspaper analysis. Plus the price distortion knocked Thailand down to 3rd place in the world from #1 rice exporter.

[ArchieBunker]

Its more complicated than that, there are a few people saying Reds are stupid and should't be able to vote. But most are arguing the reds are too easily bought to vote for Thaksin/Yingluck they want to change the system to prevent populist measures like the rice scheme which they see as a fancy way to buy votes.

And their have been many Reds who when interviewed say they know Thaksin is corrupt, BUT he helps them and raised their standard of living, which is True.

 

Question is when does a populist scheme stop being about helping low income and just become about buying their vote....let me know when you got an answer to that.

 

 

So lets have someone who the opposition says is corrupt take over the country (unelected of course).  Makes a lot of sense.

 

If you think the govt sponsered rice scheme is akin to "buying" votes what the hell do you think the massive increase in the various programs (such as EBT payments/cards) are?  Is that NOT "buying" votes as well??

[rxpharm]

Archie, you are not seeing the picture - although you live in LOS part time, you haven't spent time talking to people. You're using your own perceptions and values making a judgement on the situation.

 

Most of the people who protested want reform - but not necessarily to have the Suthep plan of having an appointed caretaker gov't for an unspecified amount of time until reforms take place.

 

Of course since you so firmly believe in "democracy" your support of the current PT gov't that they can implement any plan they want because they are the majority, that causes the country severe problems, sounds similar to what is happening in the US. You say the current President is the worst ever, has ruined the US, bankrupted the nation - and what do you do about it until the next election?

 

Continue to complain, perhaps send money to the true blue Republican party?

 

The rice scheme was Thaksin's idea to maintain the loyalty of the northern farmers, but so poorly thought out that they could manipulate world prices (kind of like the brothers who tried to corner the silver market in the 70's or 80's). Currently they have almost 5 years of rice in storage that they don't want to sell at market prices as they would be losing 30-40% on what they paid to the farmers. The losses have gone far beyond that they budgeted, and now fewer countries want to buy the "old rotten, stale" rice even at discounted prices. China just cancelled their order to buy 10 million tons, and so the problems mount.

 

The country is headed to bankruptcy, no private banks are willing to buy bonds to raise funds to cover the program. So this democratically elected government, which was warned by a number of reputable Thai economists and the external agencies this program was unstainable goes ahead anyway. 

 

Many farmers (except those coincidentally from Chaing Mai who magically got their rice harvest in early to get the last of the payments) haven't had any income since October - that's before the protests started.  Clear transparent and democratic PT lawmakers hard at work.

[Snick]

Very detailed description  of rice program

 

http://www.slideshare.net/sasinsustainability/rice-mortgage-scheme-vuttiphol

[ArchieBunker]

Archie, you are not seeing the picture - although you live in LOS part time, you haven't spent time talking to people. You're using your own perceptions and values making a judgement on the situation.

 

Most of the people who protested want reform - but not necessarily to have the Suthep plan of having an appointed caretaker gov't for an unspecified amount of time until reforms take place.

 

Of course since you so firmly believe in "democracy" your support of the current PT gov't that they can implement any plan they want because they are the majority, that causes the country severe problems, sounds similar to what is happening in the US. You say the current President is the worst ever, has ruined the US, bankrupted the nation - and what do you do about it until the next election?

 

Continue to complain, perhaps send money to the true blue Republican party?

 

The rice scheme was Thaksin's idea to maintain the loyalty of the northern farmers, but so poorly thought out that they could manipulate world prices (kind of like the brothers who tried to corner the silver market in the 70's or 80's). Currently they have almost 5 years of rice in storage that they don't want to sell at market prices as they would be losing 30-40% on what they paid to the farmers. The losses have gone far beyond that they budgeted, and now fewer countries want to buy the "old rotten, stale" rice even at discounted prices. China just cancelled their order to buy 10 million tons, and so the problems mount.

 

The country is headed to bankruptcy, no private banks are willing to buy bonds to raise funds to cover the program. So this democratically elected government, which was warned by a number of reputable Thai economists and the external agencies this program was unstainable goes ahead anyway. 

 

Many farmers (except those coincidentally from Chaing Mai who magically got their rice harvest in early to get the last of the payments) haven't had any income since October - that's before the protests started.  Clear transparent and democratic PT lawmakers hard at work.

 

 

You might be surprised that I have spoken to many (non sex worker) Thais.  Mostly people with low level jobs in the hospitality industry. These folks ahve been hurt badly by the current madness.  

 

For them its simple, the country votes and the political process plays out.  These people would follow/support a true populist candidate whose hands are clean.  I dont think that species exists currently.  Corruption is ingrained in Thailand.  Thats a bug DUUUUUUUUH!!!

[pdogg]

I am all for populism if it effectively transfers wealth form the ruling elite to the people.

[Snick]

OK !!! Now I am Pissed !!!

 

They just cancelled the Nine Inch Nails show at Pattaya for March 1st !!!

 

http://www.richardbarrow.com/2014/02/silverlake-music-festival-has-been-cancelled/

[pdogg]

You can't even make stuff like this up 

 

 

Centre for Maintaining Peace and Order (CMPO) Director Chalerm Yubamrung said Thursday that he would disguise himself to mingle with the protesters in his attempt to have protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban arrested.

 

The labour minister said he would wear moustache, sun glasses and a hat to prevent protesters from recognizing him when he would venture in disguise into the protest site together with a special police team tasked with arresting Mr Suthep.

http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/chalerm-says-will-disguise-arrest-suthep/

 

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