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pdogg

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7 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

 better than Tbills.

1 Year or 2 year Tbills 

Perhaps after the coming recession I will move into stocks.

2 hours ago, blind boy grunt said:

Now, i'm not 100% sure, because i can only speak English, but i think that PD is saying 'don't bring any CDs to sell here, especially broken ones' ... heed his warning.. 

Will PD be in the stocks because he caused a recession by not paying his Tbills for a year or two?

Screenshot 2022-09-27 11.04.13.png

I hope you are paying your coffee bills on time.

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Some analysts believe to GBP will be at parity with not just the USD but also the Euro in a few months.  Maybe it is time for RAF to bomb Brussels!    :party:   

The USD rose to 38.05 at the main branch of Super Rich Thailand (Green) and is at 38 even at Vasu on Sukhumvit.  Down in Sodom By The Sea the rate is 37.97 at TT.   

Note the Buy-Sell spread is much tighter for the USD and the Euro than the GBP due to the pound's recent volatility.

19 hours ago, seven said:

That’s the spirit, PD!

A soft landing will be difficult won't be easy.  But a recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth may not be that bad as unemployment is currently very low.  

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LONDON — The Bank of England will suspend the planned start of its gilt selling next week and begin temporarily buying long-dated bonds in order to calm the market chaos unleashed by the new government’s so-called “mini-budget.”

U.K. gilt yields were on course for their sharpest monthly rise since at least 1957 as investors fled British fixed income markets following the new fiscal policy announcements. The measures included large swathes of unfunded tax cuts that have drawn global criticism, including from the IMF.

In a statement Wednesday, the central bank said it was monitoring the “significant repricing” of U.K. and global assets in recent days, which has hit long-dated U.K. government debt particularly hard.

“Were dysfunction in this market to continue or worsen, there would be a material risk to UK financial stability.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/bank-of-england-delays-bond-sales-launches-temporary-purchase-program.html

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Asian currencies will likely continue weakening for another quarter — if not more, as U.S. interest rates rise, the Economist Intelligence Unit said. 

The EIU said it expects further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in November and December, although “the risk is rising that rate increases will occur at a faster pace than we currently anticipate.”

The contrast between the Fed’s tightening and the monetary easing in some Asian economies, such as Japan and China, means the U.S. dollar would be more buoyant and there will be more downward pressure on Asian currencies.

“As the Federal Reserve signals a more hawkish approach to monetary policy to curb inflation, Asian currencies extended their losses against the US dollar in September,” the economics group said in an analysis on Thursday. 

“We expect that the pressure facing Asian currencies will last for another quarter, if not longer.”

The U.S. dollar index
, which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, has strengthened by 15% since the beginning of the year, data from Refinitiv’s Eikon showed.


The Japanese yen has dropped nearly 25% against the U.S. dollar in the same period, and the South Korean won has fallen about 18% against the greenback year-to-date. 

The Chinese yuan has declined by nearly 12% against the greenback, Refinitiv numbers show. 

These [intervention] efforts will help to temper volatility in the markets but are unlikely to stem depreciation in the months ahead as long as the US dollar rally persists.
Economist Intelligence Unit
There is little risk of a repeat of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, particularly given healthier levels of foreign exchange reserves in Asian countries, the EIU said, pointing out that there are vulnerabilities in the region’s smallest and weakest economies, with limited spillover effects.

“Most countries in Asia will continue to intervene intermittently in the foreign exchange market to slow the slide of their currencies. These efforts will help to temper volatility in the markets but are unlikely to stem depreciation in the months ahead as long as the US dollar rally persists,” the EIU said. 

The EIU expects Asian economies such as India, Indonesia and Malaysia to step up their interest rates in an effort to catch up with the U.S. monetary policy. 

Last month, the Federal Reserve raised benchmark interest rates by another three-quarters of a percentage point and indicated it would keep hiking well above the current level.


So far, many countries in the Asia-Pacific region have been cautious about jacking up their interest rates too quickly to allow their economies to recover following the lifting of borders and prevent them from contracting too quickly. 

In recent months however, the central banks of Thailand and Philippines have relented and have started raising interest rates.

Their foreign currency reserves — along with others in Asia — would also fall as central banks in the region also dip into them to slow the depreciation of their currencies, ING Economics said in a note last week.

Low foreign currency reserves can impede a country’s ability to import enough goods.

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  • 2 weeks later...

First of all I hope I am not off base with my comments.  But, felt compelled to through my hat in the ring.  I will not dive into the the deep rooted issues of how we have gotten in the condition, but will suggest it will get worse.  What's going on in America is a travesty.  Biden took a V shape recover and flushed it down the toilet.  Inflation was around 2% when he took over and now it is very high and going to get higher.  I don't believe the numbers broadcast reflect the truth, based on changing of equations and propaganda.  There are people out that truly understand what's happening and where its going.  The rest are political pundits.  Inflation will continue to rise and there are 2 ways to counteract.  1, is to raise rates and drive up unemployment, bring demand down and slow reduce inflation, at the price of human suffering.  2,  grow your way out of it by cutting taxes, grow employment.  The UK just did an about face, and backed out of tax cuts, mistake.  IAs for investments, I think Bonds, are appropriate choice.  Not so much to outpace inflation but to get something for your money returns.  I-Bond, is paying close to 10%, but you can only buy up to 10K USD and only once a year.  But you can gift, and spouse which can increase total yearly holdings.  Min hold is 1 year.  The other is Notes and T-bills.  1 year is over 4% and I believe the direction for rates is upwards, thus staggered buying.  If you go back to the late 1979 and early 1980's, bond rates hit up to 13% if not higher.  The issue with bonds is they are not daily compounded.  Banks will need to start increasing rates in order to compete for money with bonds.  Much to be said for index's, commodities, energy and utilities, but I do not have the confidence to properly time accurately.  Jamie Diamond has been publicly stating for some time now of an economic hurricane is coming, as has others of a harsh recession coming.

Sorry for the bleak outlook.  But on the bright side i will be traveling to PH and TH, regardless, and the strong $, will benefit me.  

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3 hours ago, Zeppie said:

I-Bond, is paying close to 10%, but you can only buy up to 10K USD and only once a year. 

IMO, I-Bonds are the very best investment for Americans.  

However, there are numerous reports that the website you use to buy and manage them truly sucks. It's easy to get locked out of the website and a pain to resolve the issues.   As an expat, I value the peace of mind of not worrying about being separated from my money.  It is a real shame that you can't buy I-Bonds on a platform such as Fidelity, Vanguard, or Schwab. If I could buy them on Fidelity, I would certainly do so.  If website issues are not a concern for an American investor, it is really worth checking out I-Bonds. 

The money market fund available to me currently is yielding 3% which is more than 1 month Tbills. When the Fed finishes tightening I will shift to Tbills, not sure what duration.

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Nice reply PD.  Your comments bring up an interesting thought.  First, I have bought both I-bonds and 1 year T-Bill.  The website is Treasury Direct.  I have had zero issues.  Being that i am somewhat new to this type of investment, I did notice, that they stated there was a different site, and that is no longer in use.  Would have to go look at what the site name was, it was somewhat similar.  It just makes wonder if you encounter your issues with the now eliminated site.  Yes, 3 month and such are perfectly fine, especially if you think the rates are and will be directionally higher, which I do, that why i will take a staggered approach and ponce when I think they are there.  But bonds will not hold a candle to the equity market when things turn, but i have no desire to play the have we hit bottom game.....and the answer is NO. IMO!

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On 10/17/2022 at 4:52 AM, Zeppie said:

I-Bond, is paying close to 10%, but you can only buy up to 10K USD and only once a year.

After a difficult year for the stock market, investors have poured money into Series I bonds, a nearly risk-free and inflation-protected asset that’s paying a record 9.62% annual interest rate through October.

With the rate expected to drop to roughly 6.48% in November, there’s a brief window to secure higher interest for six months, assuming you haven’t exceeded the I bond purchase limits for 2022. 

While I bond rates change twice yearly based on inflation, you can still lock in 9.62% annual interest for six months — as long as you complete the purchase by Oct. 28.

You must complete your purchase and receive a confirmation email by Oct. 28, according to TreasuryDirect.

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2 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

After a difficult year for the stock market, investors have poured money into Series I bonds, a nearly risk-free and inflation-protected asset that’s paying a record 9.62% annual interest rate through October.

With the rate expected to drop to roughly 6.48% in November, there’s a brief window to secure higher interest for six months, assuming you haven’t exceeded the I bond purchase limits for 2022. 

While I bond rates change twice yearly based on inflation, you can still lock in 9.62% annual interest for six months — as long as you complete the purchase by Oct. 28.

You must complete your purchase and receive a confirmation email by Oct. 28, according to TreasuryDirect.

Spot on PD.  Its a great investment except as noted, limit amount you can invest.  But, I noted there are spouses and gift that can increase your total invested.  Yes, changes every 6 months, but no indications it will change down or if so, not much. There was mention of soft landing, but I don't see it (one could only hope).  I think it will be much harsher.  As for the unemployment comment made, I understand that point, but my opinion is unemployment is based on those looking for employment, and not those with no job and not looking for employment..  All the Trillions that have been dumped into the USA economy, people don't have to work and the number are staggering, and are the benefits received.  It's called buying votes.  I think you have to go back precovid and do an A to B of the numbers employed, to ball park the real unemployment. 

I remain focused on, staggered buys and short term Bonds, T-Bills, Notes, cause I think they are directionally going to continue to rise, and the equity market is going to continue it's negative slope.

PS.  The comment regarding definition of an recession, no longer applies, since 2 + 2 =4 is now a false result.  

Yes, I am very pessimistic.  I hope I am wrong.  Under the previous administration I was very optimistic, and all in on equities.

Thanks for listening, and good luck to everyone trying to stay afloat.

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  • 2 weeks later...

(Reuters) - Myanmar will start accepting the Thai baht currency for settling border trade transactions and is also looking at a similar plan to use the Indian rupee for such trade, the ministries of information and investment said on Tuesday.

Myanmar's military-controlled government has already said it would also accept China's renminbi as an official settlement currency.

"By reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar, we will mitigate the risk of sudden exchange rate swings due to external geopolitical factors," the ministries said in a statement, adding the move would help reduce inflation caused by appreciation of the dollar.

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On 10/29/2022 at 2:43 PM, Quietguy said:

UK Pound over 44 Baht today.

Screenshot 2022-10-29 14.35.05.png

On 11/3/2022 at 12:59 PM, Pdoggg said:

The Fed hiked rates by 3/4 of a percent yesterday and the BOE did so today.

 

After reaching over 44 Baht to the UK£ last week, the Pound has fallen again after the BoE raised interest rate to 3% on Thursday.

Usual economic theory is that a rise in interest rates should strengthen a currency, but after the chaos of the UK Government this doesn't apply now.

 

Screenshot 2022-11-05 10.27.44.png

Screenshot 2022-11-05 10.16.04.png

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  • 5 weeks later...

The Philippine central bank may raise rates by 50 basis points at its mid-December meeting, bringing the policy rate to 5.5%.

The central bank raised interest rates six times this year.

In spite of growth being expected to slow down in 2023, the November inflation data suggests that the central bank still has a number of rate hikes in the pipeline “to help stem any second round effects from higher food prices, rein in demand, and make sure inflation expectations are well anchored,” said Aris Dacanay, ASEAN Economist from HSBC Global Research.

Dacanay also said he expects the BSP to pause its tightening cycle when the policy rate reaches 6.25%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/06/philippines-inflation-soars-to-fastest-in-14-years-more-hikes-to-come.html

 

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On 12/5/2022 at 12:48 AM, Pdoggg said:

The Buy-Sell spread  is currently ridiculously wide for the Danish krone.  If you coming to Thailand from Denmark, it is probably a good idea to exchange krone for euro in Denmark and bring euros to Thailand.

 

That is a huge spread! Here in Guadalajara, Mexico I exchanged $100 USD and received P18.40. The sell rate is P19.60. I will use an ATM the next time and avoid the poor cash rate.

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