Strong Baht Weak Baht

[Pdoggg]

The USD is marching towards 36 baht and 55 Philippine pisos. But the dollar is loosely pegged  to Cambodian Riel at 4000.  This makes Cambodia not as attractive the LOS or PI for Yanks.

[Pdoggg]

Dollar is rocking and rolling against all currencies due to a hawkish Fed!   The 36 baht level was breached and headed towards 56 Philippine pisos and parity with the Euro.

[Pdoggg]

For all intents and purposes the Euro and USD are at parity.

Perhaps you can get slightly more using Euros for a wire transfer but at TT Exchange in Pattaya you will get an extra baht if changing $100 USD than 100 Euro.

 

 

[Pdoggg]

The June inflation report released a few minutes ago shows even higher USA inflation growth than expected.  This means the Fed is likely to me more hawkish than expected which means the dollar should get even stronger against most currencies.  To put this in more meaningful terms if on New Year's Day a ladyboy had a 6 1/2 inch cock, she would now be more than 7 inches.  

[Ashoka]

5 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

The June inflation report released a few minutes ago shows even higher USA inflation growth than expected.  This means the Fed is likely to me more hawkish than expected which means the dollar should get even stronger against most currencies.  To put this in more meaningful terms if on New Year's Day a ladyboy had a 6 1/2 inch cock, she would now be more than 7 inches.  

I could get used to the good old days of the 42 baht for a dollar before the 2008 crash.

[seven]

On 7/12/2022 at 8:27 AM, Pdoggg said:

For all intents and purposes the Euro and USD are at parity.

I can’t even remember when this was the case using  smartphone apps. Not sure I like the $ to be as strong as the €. £ will be on par soon.

They better just devalue the baht as the world evolve around us westerners looking for third world tranny ass.

[Pdoggg]

On Wednesday, the Bank of Thailand raised its key interest rate for the first time since 2018 as inflationary pressures continue to weigh on the economy.

Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said there’s no need for the central bank to “undertake heroically large rate hikes” as the country’s economy is only expected to return to pre-pandemic levels at the end of the year.

Suthiwartnarueput said the 25-basis-point hike to 0.75% was a “gradual and measured approach,” given the country is in a “very different part of [its] economic cycle” compared with countries that have raised rates more aggressively.

Thailand’s economy remains sluggish, growing only by 2.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, and raising rates higher could further slow down its economy, said Shreya Sodhani, regional economist at Barclays. 

Sodhani supported the central bank’s modest hike, saying the country’s economic growth is not “good enough” to warrant a 50-basis-point increase. Still, Barclays expects two more 25-basis-point hikes this year. 

While more advanced economies are tightening monetary policy at a faster rate, Thailand’s gradual and measured approach will ensure the country’s economic recovery remains intact, Suthiwartnarueput said.

″[Advanced economies] are looking for a soft landing, but we’re looking at trying to ensure a smooth takeoff,” he added.

The Bank of Thailand said it expects “headline inflation will remain at a high level throughout 2022, largely unchanged from the previous forecast, before gradually falling into the target range in 2023 as the supply-side inflationary pressures subside.”

The country’s inflation rate hit a 14-year high of 7.66% in June. Although it dipped slightly in July to 7.61%, it is still well above the central bank’s 1% to 3% target. 

“Inflation has been tracking quite high,” BOT’s Suthiwartnarueput said. “But we don’t see any kind of demand side inflationary pressure, it’s all been driven by the supply side.” 

He said the central bank expects headline inflation to peak sometime in the third quarter. Barclays shares a similar position, expecting Thailand’s inflation to peak in August. 

Although inflation has been rising at a much faster rate in the past two months, Barclays’ Sodhani said the central bank’s 2022 headline inflation expectation of 6.2% “is much lower than our forecast of 7% for this year.”

Going forward, Suthiwartnarueput said a pickup in tourism will be a key driver for Thailand’s economic growth. The country’s economy relies heavily on tourism and should benefit from easing Covid-19 travel measures and waived visa requirements.

“Before Covid, we had 40 million tourists coming to Thailand. Last year, we had 400,000,” he said. 

“A lot of our recovery is contingent upon a pickup in tourism.”

The central bank said it expects to see 8 million tourist arrivals this year. 

“The Thai economy is projected to continue recovering with strong momentum. This is attributable to a larger-than-expected number of foreign tourist arrivals following the relaxation of international travel restrictions and improved travel sentiments,” the Bank of Thailand said.

Thailand’s lifting of Covid curbs will boost travel, services: Hospitality firm
Barclays’ Sodhani said, however, tourist arrivals will not impact growth “in a very big way if those that are coming are not spending enough.” 

She explained that European tourists typically travel to Thailand in the first quarter, while tourists from ASEAN countries and India come in the second and third quarter. Sodhani said travelers coming from the latter regions tend to book shorter trips, thus spending less.

“Overall tourism will continue to boost growth, but not in a proportionate way to the number of tourists,” Sodhani added.

[Pdoggg]

LONDON — Sterling
 in August suffered its sharpest monthly fall against the U.S. dollar
 since the aftermath of the Brexit referendum, as political uncertainty and a historic cost-of-living crisis weigh heavily on the British currency.

Sterling dropped 4.5% against the greenback last month and continued to slide on Thursday, last trading just below $1.16 by mid-morning in London. The pound also fell nearly 3% against the euro
 last month.

The U.K. faces a rapidly deteriorating cost-of-living crisis as food and energy prices soar, with millions of households facing poverty this winter.

Meanwhile, a new prime minister will be named next week following a ballot among Conservative Party members, causing uncertainty over the outlook for fiscal policy.

The energy crisis arising from Russia’s war in Ukraine is now widely expected to push the euro zone and U.K. economies into recession, while some economists still tip the U.S. to avoid the same fate given its relatively stronger economic position and energy independence.

In a research note Wednesday, Capital Economics Chief U.K. Economist Paul Dales said this divergence would drive further weakness in both the euro and the pound against the U.S. dollar, and expects sterling to “plumb new depths” as political and economic uncertainty continue to hammer U.K. assets.

“We think the pound will fall from $1.17 now to around $1.05 by the middle of next year. That would leave it below the levels reached before the 1985 Plaza Accord ($1.09), after the UK left the ERM in 1992 ($1.43), during the 2008/09 Global Financial Crisis ($1.38), after the 2016 Brexit vote ($1.21) and during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis ($1.21),” Dales said.

“In fact, $1.05 would be an all-time record low. At the same time, with high inflation likely to prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates as soon as the financial markets anticipate, we expect only a small fall in 10-year gilt yields by the end of this year and a big decline in the FTSE 100.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/01/sterling-suffered-its-worst-month-since-brexit-and-analysts-expect-it-to-plumb-new-depths.html

 

[Quietguy]

It's not looking too good here. This might mean less UK tourists going to los this winter.

[Pdoggg]

USD marching toward 37 baht and 57 pisos.   

[Quietguy]

UK Pound sterling continues to fall against Thai Baht. Below 40 Baht to £ today. 

[bumblebee]

7 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

USD marching toward 37 baht and 57 pisos.   

We know who’ll be splashing out on ladyboy drinks next trip ;)

[seven]

9 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

USD marching toward 37 baht and 57 pisos.   

Congrats!

[seven]

2 hours ago, Quietguy said:

UK Pound sterling continues to fall against Thai Baht. Below 40 Baht to £ today. 

I’m sorry. The Brexit effect.

[Quietguy]

1 hour ago, seven said:

I’m sorry. The Brexit effect.

I expect Duke will disagree. 

[seven]

20 minutes ago, Quietguy said:

I expect Duke will disagree. 

Ehh, ok.

[Pdoggg]

Sterling was fractionally higher against the dollar on Monday afternoon, trading just below $1.15, but Deutsche Bank FX Strategist Shreyas Gopal warned that the risks of a “sterling crisis” should not be underestimated.

“With the current account deficit already at record levels, sterling requires large capital inflows supported by improving investor confidence and falling inflation expectations. However, the opposite is happening,” Deutsche Bank said in a note Monday.

“The U.K. is suffering from the highest inflation rate in the G10 and a weakening growth outlook. A large, unfunded and untargeted fiscal expansion accompanied by potential changes to the Bank of England’s mandate could lead to an even bigger rise in inflation expectations and — at the extreme — the emergence of fiscal dominance.”

Truss put the Bank of England and its Governor Andrew Bailey firmly in the crosshairs during her leadership campaign, blaming the central bank for allowing inflation to soar to 40-year highs, and is reportedly considering a review of the Bank’s mandate.

She has also suggested scrapping the Northern Ireland protocol, a key part of the post-Brexit withdrawal agreement between the U.K. and the European Union, a move likely to prompt retaliation from the bloc.

Gopal suggested that added uncertainty on trade policy would further muddy the macroeconomic picture and dent investor confidence.

“The risk premium on UK gilts is already rising, coincident with unusually large foreign outflows. If investor confidence erodes further, this dynamic could become a self-fulfilling balance of payments crisis whereby foreigners would refuse to fund the U.K. external deficit,” he said.

Deutsche Bank estimates that trade-weighted sterling — a measure of the pound’s value against selected currencies most important to international trade — would have to come down by a further 15% in order to return the U.K.’s deficit to its 10-year average.

“A balance of payments funding crisis may sound extreme, but it is not unprecedented: a combination of aggressive fiscal spending, severe energy shock, and a slide in sterling ultimately resulted in the U.K. having recourse to an IMF loan in the mid 1970s,” Gopal said.

“Today, the UK does retain some key lines of defense against a sudden stop, but we worry that the risks are rising nevertheless.”

[seven]

PD, its not fair. Engerland is suffering badly, we know that, no need to rub it in.  The rich tories aren't hurting of course, but I doubt you see any of them here on a forum dedicated to trannies, as they are anti trans.

I hope they shall rise again and bring the pound up to the good old 75 baht /pound days. They new tory lady proclaimed today she will cut taxes in order to get Engerland back on its feet    Good luck with that! 

 

[Pdoggg]

7 hours ago, seven said:

she will cut taxes

I have no idea of what's in her tax cut but in the USA very often the primary beneficiaries of tax cuts are huge corporations and people making more than a million dollars/euro/quid a year.

Instead tax cuts should go to working people who are struggling.

A weaker sterling should help UK exporters.  But on this forum, comprised of expats and guys who travel for sex, everyone wants their currency to be strong like a fit ladyman's rock hard erection. 

[Pdoggg]

The dollar surged to a 24-year peak against the yen and a 37-year high versus sterling as Japan’s dovish monetary policy and Europe’s economic problems contrasted with a relatively stronger U.S. economy and a hawkish Federal Reserve determined to bring down inflation to its 2% inflation target.

The U.S. currency soared as high as 144.99 yen, hitting the level for the first time since August 1998. It is now within a large leap of its 1998 high of 147.43. The dollar was last up 1.1% at 144.305 yen.

“The dollar is a rock in a sea of troubles right now, outperforming all of its major rivals as interest rates rise and the economy shows signs of resilience,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist, at Corpay in Toronto.

“With measures of core inflation barely budging, and the central bank (BoJ) showing no inclination to change direction, yield differentials have continued to worsen - depressing returns in relative terms and adding fuel to a burgeoning yen-funded carry trade,” he said.

In carry trades, investors borrow in low-yielding currencies such as the yen or Swiss franc to purchase higher-yielding ones such as the Australian or New Zealand dollars.

Against sterling, the greenback hit $1.1407, the lowest since 1985 and last down 0.8% at $1.1425.

The euro fell below 99 cents on Wednesday after dipping as low as $0.9864 on Tuesday, its lowest since October 2002. Europe’s single currency was last up 0.3% at US$0.9930.

The European Central Bank is seen as more likely than not to deliver a massive 75 basis-point (bp) rate hike on Thursday, but these expectations are doing little to support the currency in the face of a battered European economy and Russia’s decision to keep the key Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline shut indefinitely.

In contrast, a report overnight showed the U.S. services industry unexpectedly picked up last month, supporting the view that the economy is not in recession.

Also on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada hiked interest rates by 75 bps three-quarters of a percentage point to a 14-year high on Wednesday, as expected, and said the policy rate would need to go even higher as it battles raging inflation.

Despite the BoC rate hike, the U.S. dollar was steady against the Canadian currency, up 0.1% at C$1.3164.

Moves in the FX markets were most dramatic for the yen, whose tumble, even by its own recent standards, has been precipitous. The dollar has climbed 4.2% from 138.96 yen just since the end of August.

At the current dollar/yen levels, speculation is also growing that Japanese authorities could intervene to prop up the currency.

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno told a news briefing that the administration would like to take necessary steps if “rapid, one-sided” moves in currency markets continue, ratcheting up the rhetoric.

However, many analysts see intervention as difficult.

“Foreign central banks are prioritising dealing with inflation, and cannot afford to worry about exchange rate fluctuations,” said Rikiya Takebe, senior strategist at Okasan Securities.

Elsewhere China’s yuan sank to a two-year trough, closing in on the 7-per-dollar mark despite steps by authorities to stem its decline.

The onshore yuan weakened to a low of 6.9808, the softest level since August 2020, and the offshore yuan was even closer to the key level, falling as low as 6.997 per dollar.

Cryptocurrency bitcoin slumped to the lowest since June 19 at $18,540, extending a 5% tumble from Tuesday. But it was last up 0.7% at $18,920.

[Quietguy]

1 hour ago, Pdoggg said:

Against sterling, the greenback hit $1.1407, the lowest since 1985

Yes the pound did rise slightly yesterday as new PM took office, but has fallen again today as fears of UK recession grows. 

[Pdoggg]

The Euro strengthened after the ECB raised interest rates by 75 basis points.

[bumblebee]

51 minutes ago, Pdoggg said:

The Euro strengthened after the ECB raised interest rates by 75 basis points.

Happy days….in a couple of months :)

[Pdoggg]

India banned the export of broken rice and slapped on a 20% export tax on some other varieties of rice.   This means there will be increased demand for Thai rice which should somewhat strengthen the baht.

[Pdoggg]

Good news for the Swedish Krona.  The Swedish Central Bank raised interest rates by 100 basis points and indicated more rate hikes to follow.   Ceteris paribus the krona should appreciate against the baht and other currencies that aren't tightening monetary policy.