Wall Street

[Pdoggg]

Today could possibly be the day of the Crash of 2020.

Oil prices plunged 25%.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are plunging. 

Asia markets are tanking.  As of this writing, the Japan market is down 6% and the Thailand market is down 6.77%.  The Thailand market closes for an hour and a half lunch break every day and will reopen at 2PM

Buckle up if you're in the market.

Treasury yields are taking a dive again today and if you have access to brokered CDs then you might be able to scoop up some at artificially low price/high interest rate on platforms such as Fidelity as brokered CDs are not an "efficient" market in the very short term in the Secondary market (not original issue by banks). 

This might not be the best time to book flights as with oil plummeting by 25%that will impact airfare but there will be somewhat of a time lag until prices adjust.

 

[Pdoggg]

European markets have opened and the Footsie is currently down 8.5%

The Italian market is closed.

[Quietguy]

From the Guardian website

[ArchieBunker]

Its crazy!  Its scary!  Was it Baron Von Rothschild who said "the time to buy is when there is blood in the streets!"  I know JP Morgan said it as well. I know I am living in a bit of a bubble here in Bangkok (for the next week or so anyway) but this strikes me as a totally hysterical panic.  

Lots of instability especially in the oil markets.  The Saudis are looking to rip out Russian throats.  Huge problem for the Russians.  The Saudi can turn on the faucet almost indefinitely.  Its costs getting it out of the ground are next to nothing.  this is dysfunctional and probably a total over reaction.

I could understand it better if hordes were dropping like flies due to this CoronaVirus but its not like that, is it?

Also I dont understand why gold isnt way up.  It should be.

[xyzzy]

8 hours ago, ArchieBunker said:

Its crazy!  Its scary!  Was it Baron Von Rothschild who said "the time to buy is when there is blood in the streets!"  I know JP Morgan said it as well. I know I am living in a bit of a bubble here in Bangkok (for the next week or so anyway) but this strikes me as a totally hysterical panic.  

Lots of instability especially in the oil markets.  The Saudis are looking to rip out Russian throats.  Huge problem for the Russians.  The Saudi can turn on the faucet almost indefinitely.  Its costs getting it out of the ground are next to nothing.  this is dysfunctional and probably a total over reaction.

I could understand it better if hordes were dropping like flies due to this CoronaVirus but its not like that, is it?

Also I dont understand why gold isnt way up.  It should be.

The DOW fell 2013 points. The selloff greatly influenced, as you mentioned, buy the Russia/Saudi oil feud. Oil dropped into the lower US$30/barrel and all oil stocks went way down. The small oil producers saw many of their stocks drop 40% today. Really shitty timing with everything else going on. The problem with Corona is no one knows what will happen. Markets really hate that. Gold is at the highest level since January 2013. Up 50% since it's low in late 2015 and about US$150 off the all time high.

[Tomcat]

On 3/9/2020 at 5:18 AM, Pdoggg said:

 

Buckle up if you're in the market.

 

 I think most with a pension fund will have some skin in the game ... whether they like it or not !... ouch

Was listening to a Radio Talk show and the presenter was crying his eyes out after his advisor give him some figures...one hopes it will bounce back

Blame the algorithms

[ciobha]

On 3/9/2020 at 5:18 AM, Pdoggg said:

This might not be the best time to book flights as with oil plummeting by 25%that will impact airfare but there will be somewhat of a time lag until prices adjust.

 

I always find it interesting that in the UK anyway, when oil prices fall it takes sometime several months for the consumer to see that saving at the pumps, or in energy bills. The retailers point to having stocks bought at the higher price which is why the savings aren't yet passed on. Then when they are eventually passed on the savings are minimal. However when oils prices go up, the knock on effect for the consumer is almost immediate!!!!

[stoolpusher]

It's the same in Australia and when oil goes up ,fuel goes up the same day

[Pdoggg]

The Thai stock market is down 9% at the lunch break.

Dow futures are down an additional 1050 points after Wednesday's rout.

[Pdoggg]

On 3/9/2020 at 6:09 PM, ArchieBunker said:

Also I dont understand why gold isnt way up.  It should be.

Tanarat Pasawongse, chief executive of Hua Seng Heng Group, said that while the global gold price has risen by 10%, the domestic gold price has increased by 17% because of the baht weakening against the greenback.

[Quietguy]

Trump has banned flights for next 30 days into US from European countries (except UK and Ireland) causing falls on European and UK stock markets.

[Pdoggg]

The Dow plummets 1700 points at the open.

The Footsie, Dax, and France all down 7% or more. 

 

The stock rout in Asia’s emerging markets is going from bad to worse. After most gauges tumbled into bear territory in the last few weeks, now the plunge is triggering trading halts.

Circuit breakers were triggered in Thailand and the Philippines after the benchmark gauges of both countries slumped 10%, the most in Asia.  Both the SET Index and the Philippine Stock Exchange Index tanked the most since October 2008.

Stocks in the region tanked as foreign investors liquidate their equity holdings on concern the virus will disproportionately hurt markets that are heavily reliant on tourism and with open capital accounts. Even though the circumstances are different this time, it’s reminding some investors of the Asian financial crisis.

“The markets in the last few days, even the winners have sold off,” said Kerry Goh, chief investment officer at Kamet Capital Partners Pte. “In 1998, Southeast Asia was down a lot more but it was the epicentre. This time, we’re being dragged down by the rest of the world.”

Southeast Asian equities are now trading near their lowest in 14 years relative to global developed peers. The MSCI Asean Index’s valuation of 14.5 times estimated earnings for the next year is now below 2-standard deviations of its 10-year average, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

[Pdoggg]

S&P 500 drops 7%, triggering NYSE ‘circuit breaker’ trading halt for 15 minutes.

[Pdoggg]

Footsie, DAX, and CAC are all down more than 9%

[Pdoggg]

The European stocks index has ended the day with its biggest loss on record.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index, which measures major stocks across the region, fell 11.5% on Thursday, its worst day on record.

It eclipsed the 8.5% drop during the 1987 stock market crash.

Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 10.9%, its worst loss since 1987.

Germany’s DAX plunged 12.2%, which is more than it lost after the attacks of September 11 2001, France’s CAC 40 12.3% and Italy’s FTSE MIB a massive 16.9%.

___________________________________

The Dow is down 2000 points as of this writing.

[ArchieBunker]

You know call me crazy but I think this sell off is a huge over reaction. 
 

what will probably happen is that there is a spike, then a leveling off, then a decline. This is the history of modern pandemics. 
 

if that’s what happens, can we all get back to a semblance of normalcy and a lack of panic???

a few years after the 2008 crisis people looked back and couldn’t believe how cheap some companies/prices were. Ten years after that and you would have made a total killing. 
 

i have a feeling the same thing can and might happen 18 months from now. 

[xyzzy]

1 minute ago, ArchieBunker said:

i have a feeling the same thing can and might happen 18 months from now. 

Hell I'll almost guarantee if you by quality companies now in 18 months you will be ahead. Unless CLOVID-19 comes back for round two next winter. Then you might have to wait another year.  And if the spread gets worse, as it probably will now that we are actually starting to test in the US, you will have a chance to buy them cheaper. But when to buy is always a dilemma in volatile conditions unless you have mucho capitol. Warren Buffet was buying last week.  

[ArchieBunker]

It will get worse before it gets better. The way the market is tanking does NOT say you will be buying on the cheap for the future. It’s not saying that at all. I think it’s saying the opposite. 
 

I am not saying it’s correct. But let’s see where it is in two years. 

[xyzzy]

11 minutes ago, ArchieBunker said:

It will get worse before it gets better. The way the market is tanking does NOT say you will be buying on the cheap for the future. It’s not saying that at all. I think it’s saying the opposite. 
 

I am not saying it’s correct. But let’s see where it is in two years. 

Hell I agreed with you for a change. I mean cheaper in the near future. And if you miss the bottom by a bit who cares. Calling a market bottom is a fool's errand. 

[ArchieBunker]

37 minutes ago, xyzzy said:

Hell I agreed with you for a change. I mean cheaper in the near future. And if you miss the bottom by a bit who cares. Calling a market bottom is a fool's errand. 

That’s precisely why youget in before the bottom   Yeah you get hurt in the short term but it doesn’t matter. You don’t need the money for years.  Then you eventually come out smelling like a rose. I tell you my stuff is probably down half or 40% of what the Dow and / or the S&P is at the moment. But then again I won’t need too take that money out for years. Anyway I am prohibited from taking it out for another 2 years plus. I had no intention of starting to take any out anyway. 
 

having said the above things change. I am in the airline biz so all bets are off. My job should be safe as I am more than half way up the Seniority food chain. In this biz s seniority is king. 

[Pdoggg]

Is the economic outlook better now or 10-11 years ago?

At that time there was high unemployment but the NCAA, NBA, and MLB were playing.   Life was normal although it obviously sucked moose for those out of work and unable to find a job.

So right now the USA markets are at the levels they were at two and a half years ago when the economy was considered quite good.   Is the outlook brighter now than two and half years ago?  I don't think so.

We don't know how many people are going to die.  Maybe not that many.  But if people aren't travelling, going out to socialize etc. this will have a huge economic impact.

So I'm not a proponent of buying the dip at these levels.

[ArchieBunker]

 it’s a huge if but IF things get under control within a few months, then things can get back to some type of normal quickly. Then there a huge amount of pent up demand. 
 

at first that’s why you haven’t seen the us airlines have mass layoffs quickly. To will see layoffs and cuts but story is still being told. 

[Tomcat]

i think it takes the virus takes14 weeks to get to the peak and then back down   24 weeks approx... a lot of firms are going to keel over in that space

 

 

 

[Pdoggg]

All Asian markets are in the red today with Thailand down 6% as of this writing.   USA stock futures are getting hammered.  Usually a Fed rate cut jumpstarts the market as a rate cut increases the net present value of future cash flows.  But with the wordwide economy in the shitter the projected future cash flows are decreasing everyday. 

[Quietguy]

London Stock Market (ftse) was down another 4% at close of business