All coming to a Climax

[TTChang]

All coming to a climax …. No, not TTC in Nana Plaza …. the Thai General Election finally takes place tomorrow. Election observers from all over the world have been arriving at Swampy …. (eg. TheGame125 is doing a special erection review in Pattaya, so I hear, with intimate attention to LB voting habits - in the Sunee Plaza area?)

Nobody has an idea what’s going to happen next in this divided country, where smiles are in short supply politically. There are some potentially explosive scenarios. The Democrats have said they will accept the election result. The Red Shirts have said they will accept the election result ‘if it’s fair’. The Army commander says there will be no coup (not sure of his conditions for that, but ‘keeping his job until retirement in 3 years time’ might just swing it). The Yellow Shirts (a spent force IMO) have merely campaigned for a NO vote on the ballot paper, and used posters ridiculing the candidates as animals – what a great election strategy in a democracy!

[TTChang]

My favourite candidate is Chuvit (#5 … Anti Corruption party) Former owner of Massage Entertainment businesses. Donated Chuvit Garden to Suhkumvit Road. Chuvit paid his bribes to Police, then complained the Police didn’t sort out his land deals for him. So now he wants to get even! A great story – I like his line that ‘he doesn’t want to be elected to Government, he wants to be elected to Opposition’

[TTChang]

Yingluck Shinawatra ( Pheu Thai party) is the front runner for the top job, according to the last opinion polls. Abhisit is pretty much loathed by most of Isaan, whereas KhunThaksin is the hero.

Difficult to see much reconciliation in the last year, since the Reds occupation of Bangkok, and no public report on the 92 deaths. From a PR point of view, the Democrats’ election campaign has been uninspiring (even if you discount the rumour that reporters being bribed to include every photo of Yingluck – surely that couldn’t happen? )

Could it be that KhunThaksin’s ‘clone/sister’will take up where the original left off? ‘Thaksin thinks, Pheu Thai does’ is their rallying call. Interesting to note that TS became Economic Adviser to Cambodia after he fled Thailand. No self-interest there. Obviously a good mate of Hun Sen. So that should sort out the border issue (unless there is a flare-up of trouble in the next few days … for whatever reason !)

[TTChang]

Both main parties’ economic plans consist of spend, spend, spend (which could be devastating based on Thailand GDP growth of 7.8% in 2010). Might make ‘Quantitative Easing’ seem a bit lame! No party has suggested economic prudence, because it doesn’t win (buy) any votes. The Finance Minister (who is experienced and sensible) has been kept quiet by the Democrats, because the new government would almost certainly face a big hole in its finances (given that Thailand is not given to paying taxes) and VAT could well rise from 7%. And/or wage inflation would badly affect exports. That’s not to say low wages shouldn’t be increased – but the massive bids by both parties on minimum wage look unrealistic. Still… they are only promises made at an election, so don’t really count.

Democrat election posters lie splintered all along Ploenchit Road. Jatuporn remains in jail, despite being a Red Shirt candidate for Pheu Thai, and has been refused permission to vote (which in turn may get him removed from office ….. ) Speculation that Head of the Army wouldn’t work with the Shinawatra clan (denied of course).

My ‘best scenario’ is that Pheu Thai win (but not with an overall majority). So they need other smaller parties to get their snouts in the trough. That ‘might’ keep a rein on the Thaksin excesses (such as personal greed/power) and delay his return to Thailand (which I see as the clincher for a coup to happen).

Both Yellow shirts & Red shirts have already shown they care nothing for the world’s view of Thailand, and I have little doubt the Reds will be revolting if they don’t get their way. Democracy, eh, don’t you love it? Perhaps Hun Sen in Cambodia has got it right – 25 years in power, very little dissent, all his people in key positions in Police & Army, and no other considerations. Almost a role model, you might say.

There are other influences, which I cannot comment on. Let’s hope those don’t add another factor to the election aftermath.

Todays headlines ('The Nation'). We'll soon find out, but I'm not optimistic about the next 12 months in LOS.

[Luung]

The Army commander says there will be no coup (not sure of his conditions for that, but ‘keeping his job until retirement in 3 years time’ might just swing it).

There is & always has been the possibility of a coup.

My favorite candidate is Chuvit (#5 … Anti Corruption party) Former owner of Massage Entertainment businesses. Donated Chuvit Garden to Suhkumvit Road. Chuvit paid his bribes to Police, then complained the Police didn’t sort out his land deals for him. So now he wants to get even! A great story – I like his line that ‘he doesn’t want to be elected to Government, he wants to be elected to Opposition’

Just my honest opinion, but one of the refreshing things about Thailand is that, at least the corruption is on the surface here & to my mind that's one thing that stacks up as a lot more honest about this place than the West.

Interesting to note that TS became Economic Adviser to Cambodia after he fled Thailand. No self-interest there. Obviously a good mate of Hun Sen. So that should sort out the border issue (unless there is a flare-up of trouble in the next few days … for whatever reason !)

I think you'll find that there was plenty of 'vested' self interest there ! One of Khun Taskin's ultimate game plans is & has always been opening a chain of casinos (cleaning up money, cash money with no tax to pay, etc, etc, etc). Anyway, when he was in power he was going to place a couple of Casinos right next to the Preah Vihear temple site & then pay for the infrastructure & then let the Cambodians & his old mate Hun Sen have the temple as the ultimate sweetener!.. Taskin has applied to get licenses in every single country that he's tried to settle & if you care to cast your mind back he was bulldozing his way to opening up the first couple in Pattaya when he got deposed!

No party has suggested economic prudence, because it doesn’t win (buy) any votes. The Finance Minister (who is experienced and sensible) has been kept quiet by the Democrats, because the new government would almost certainly face a big hole in its finances (given that Thailand is not given to paying taxes)

My ‘best scenario’ is that Pheu Thai win (

One simple answer... too simple really, the rich have got to start paying more tax! :money:

Be careful what you wish for TTChang

[Jimslim]

When the head honcho finally kicks the bucket there will be civil war. (edit:the locals will have no idea who a head honcho is hopefully) hope you understand Jim why we changed the name, cannot be too careful. :D

[katana57]

My favourite candidate is Chuvit (#5 … Anti Corruption party) Former owner of Massage Entertainment businesses. Donated Chuvit Garden to Suhkumvit Road. Chuvit paid his bribes to Police, then complained the Police didn’t sort out his land deals for him. So now he wants to get even! A great story – I like his line that ‘he doesn’t want to be elected to Government, he wants to be elected to Opposition’

He sounds like one of the characters in this book!!!If you've read it,you'll know.

http://www.timothyhallinan.com/breathing.html

[rxpharm]

It will ultimately come down to the approximately 23-25% undecided voters. If they break roughly 50% for each of the major parties then Pheu Thai will win - but I don't think they will get a clear majority. If the undecided break in favor of the Democrats then they may be able to form the next gov't with help of their coalition partners.

Regardless of the results, I think Thailand will continue to be in for some tough times as both sides cannot tolerate each other. It is a sad reality that this election will not bridge the current divide facing Thai society.

[TTChang]

Exit polls are predicting a big win for the Shinawatra party. Full result in a few hours .... but then the Election Commission have a month to confirm the results, hand out red cards, shuffle the deck, think about Plan B, take advice from the military ....etc etc.

Don't think we will hear much more from Aphisit, if the Democrats only got 150 seats, with PheuThai close to 300. Chuwit has done ok though, so he will have his work cut out on anti-corruption. One voter was quoted yesterday 'We know all our politicians are corrupt, so I am quite happy to see Thaksin return' Probably sums it up!

Btw, Lung thanks for your input. My reference to KhuntAksin and Cambodia was a (failed) attempt at subtlety. Casinos, border disputes - all can be sorted out in private session by HunSen & Thaksin (on a mutual win-win basis)

[DownLoLarry]

Exit polls are predicting a big win for the Shinawatra party. Full result in a few hours ....

Looks like a big night for the Reds!

[deepthroat]

Thank you for the detailed insights here TT! This is the best thread about the elections that I've found on any of the boards.

One rumor I heard was that the Thaksin folks had supposedly made noises about modifying the exchange rate (in our favor!) to stimulate additional tourism. Hope that won't turn out to be yet another promise easily made but quickly forgotten. It would definitely be a boon to his Isaan constituency and I'd be happy with the result.

[deepthroat]

When the (HH) finally kicks the bucket there will be civil war.

Gosh, I hope that's not true. I've heard nothing lately as far as health updates but as the years increment, it obviously can't be improving (trying to be vague here for obvious reasons). I cannot imagine which way things will go but I can only hope that the Slim Man is wrong for a change.

[Katoeylover]

"we live in interesting times"

a landslide for Yingluck and the Shinawatra clones.

The wine is so big that it will be near impossible for either the military or ruling elite to ignore or face the wrath of the rest of the worls. Thailand has spoken again and we must take note

As for Khun(t?) Shinawatra , when he returns will be very interesting. return he will, but in what capacity?

The north eastern provinces are delighted of course, but what is more interesting is the huge swing in Bangkok.

Bye bye mr Abhisit, you wont be missed...

[Jimslim]

When the head honcho finally kicks the bucket there will be civil war. (edit:the locals will have no idea who a head honcho is hopefully) hope you understand Jim why we changed the name, cannot be too careful. :D

Totally understandable brother .

I don't want to come over all Pacmanesque but this scenario is a distinct possibility in a very divided and unstable country .

I wouldn't buy a house just yet :rolleyes:

[DownLoLarry]

All day long on CNBC Asia is erection coverage.

SET up 3% today.

Thai baht stregnthens vs the USD.

But I think the BOT would prefer a weak baht but currency intervention is not always effective.

[Luung]

Time to start thinking about editing out any posts that have criticized Khun Taskin Larry! :ph34r

One rumor I heard was that the Thaksin folks had supposedly made noises about modifying the exchange rate (in our favor!) to stimulate additional tourism. Hope that won't turn out to be yet another promise easily made but quickly forgotten. It would definitely be a boon to his Isaan constituency and I'd be happy with the result.

It would be a dream come true if Taskin were to do something to modify the exchange rate, especially being a Brit ex-pat with our Pound sterling currently being worth little more than fuckin' toilet paper here, but I just don't see it.

About 7 yrs ago now Taskin famously made a comment about wanting to attract 'better tourists, people who wear long trousers', that's right, that's exactly what he said... And that's the truth of it! To him most of us are cheap Charlie's & he doesn't even really want us here. He's totally aspirational & believes that this place can have the same status as the Maldives regarding being a holiday destination, especially as a 'gaming' destination, so I don't personally think he'll be modifying anything, not even if it's going to improve Thai exports. His MAIN interest is attracting wealthy Chinese tourist who like being chaperoned around from course to course playing air conditioned golf... and paying through the nose for it!

My beautiful Chaing Mai is currently being brutalized into total 'concrete submission' in preparation for them, no one else, just the Chinks, Taskin's lot!

I wouldn't buy a house just yet :rolleyes:

Any chance of doing everyone a favor & re-posting that on the moving to Thailand thread Jimslim, no one's going to listen to it if I say it.

[pdogg]

Thailand’s Baht Rises as Pro-Thaksin Party Wins

By Anuchit Nguyen and Yumi Teso - Jul 3, 2011 Thailand’s baht rose by the most since February 2008 and shares climbed after an election victory by allies of exiled premier Thaksin Shinawatra raised prospects foreign investors will return to the nation.

The cost of protecting government bonds from default dropped the most in more than a year as Pheu Thai, led by Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra, was forecast to win 264 seats in the 500-member parliament, defeating the Democrat party of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, according to an Election Commission estimate after 98 percent of the vote was counted. Abhisit congratulated Yingluck and the defense minister said the army accepted the result. The benchmark SET Index of shares advanced by the most since May 2010.

Investors have sold Thai stocks and the baht over the past month amid concern a disputed result would spark violence. The decisive win by Thaksin’s allies may bring stability to a nation beset by clashes between his supporters and opponents that claimed more than 100 lives since the last vote in 2007.

“The majority victory is a very welcome outcome and foreign investors will come back very quickly,” said Frances Cheung, a senior strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong. “It cleared a part of the uncertainty and sentiment will stabilize.”

The baht climbed 1.2 percent, the most since Feb. 29, 2008, to 30.45 per dollar as of 10:53 a.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency reached 30.41, the strongest level since June 23. Credit Agricole expects the baht to rise to 29.20 by year-end, Cheung said.

Pre-Election Slide

The SET Index added 3.5 percent, the biggest advance in Asia today, to 1,077.96 as SC Asset Corp Pcl and M Link Asia Corp., companies controlled by Yingluck’s family, surged. SC Asset jumped 13 percent to 15.5 baht and M Link climbed 22 percent to 2.16 baht.

Global funds sold $884 million more Thai equities than they bought in June, the biggest monthly sell-off since January, according to stock exchange data. The benchmark SET Index fell to a three-month low on June 27.

Credit-default swaps on Thailand fell 12 basis points, or 0.12 percentage point, to 118.5 basis points, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. That’s the biggest drop since May 27 last year, and the lowest closing level since May 20 this year, according to prices from CMA.

“Pheu Thai’s majority victory is positive for the economy,” said Vana Bulbon, chief executive officer of UOB Asset Management (Thailand) Co., which oversees the equivalent of $1.8 billion of assets. “It will let them control key economic ministries, allowing better coordination and implementation of policies. Politics has been the key risk discouraging overseas investors.”

Political Stability

The SET Index trades for 12.1 times estimated 2011 earnings, compared with 13.8 times for the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. The Thai index dropped 3 percent in June, while the baht fell 1.4 percent against the dollar, the worst performance amongst Asian peers.

“The stability of the new government is very important for both local and foreign investors,” said Voravan Taraphum, chief executive officer of BBL Asset Management Co., a unit of Thailand’s biggest lender, which oversees about $4.9 billion of assets. “The return of overseas investment into Thai stocks will help the baht appreciate.”

A military crackdown on protests by Thaksin’s supporters last May sparked violent clashes, claiming about 90 lives. The supporters occupied Bangkok’s commercial district, forcing a closure of some shopping malls and offices. In 2008, a seizure of Bangkok’s airports during a protest by Thaksin’s opponents disrupted trade and stranded thousands of tourists.

Investor Caution

Some investors may be cautious about buying Thai assets on concern Pheu Thai’s victory won’t bring an end to political instability, said Takahide Irimura, head of emerging-market research at Tokyo-based Kokusai Asset Management Co.

“Investors are worried there will be a repetition of protests, violence or other kinds of political problems that may hinder the nation’s economy or financial markets,” said Irimura, whose company oversees about $57 billion of assets including Asia’s biggest debt fund.

Thaksin was ousted in a 2006 coup and has lived overseas since fleeing a jail sentence for abuse of power in 2008. Abhisit told his supporters that Pheu Thai plans an amnesty for Thaksin, allowing him to return to the Southeast Asian country and reclaim more than $1 billion in seized wealth.

Winning Candidates

“I hope that we will accept the decision by the majority of Thais in this election,” Thaksin told Thai PBS television station late yesterday by phone from Dubai. “If you don’t respect the decision of most people, the country can’t have peace.”

The Election Commission will certify winning candidates within 30 days, after which parliament will meet to pick a prime minister, according to spokesman Paiboon Lekprom.

Thaksin-backed parties have won as much as 49 percent of seats in four previous elections dating back to 2001, only to see the last three results overturned through court rulings and a coup.

“If the Pheu Thai party is allowed to govern with the majority it has won in free and fair elections, that’s progress for Thailand,” said Michael Montesano, visiting research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asia Studies in Singapore. “There are many steps ahead and the country is bitterly divided.”

Pheu Thai pledged to provide guaranteed prices for farmers, increase minimum wages, maintain policies to encourage foreign direct investment and take measures to curb consumer prices. Inflation held at 4.06 percent in June, near a 32-month high, government data show.

Higher Interest Rates

The Bank of Thailand has raised the benchmark one-day bond repurchase rate four times this year to 3 percent. The finance ministry said last week it expects gross domestic product to expand by a maximum 5 percent this year.

Even after the worst political violence in almost two decades, both the SET Index and the currency were the second- best performers in Asia excluding Japan last year, with a 41 percent gain and 11 percent appreciation, respectively. The index fell 0.6 percent in the second quarter, the gauge’s first quarterly loss since March 2009, while the baht posted its second quarterly decline, losing 1.6 percent.

“I don’t expect overseas investors will react negatively in the short term because they already factored this in by selling Thai equities in the past month,” said Jitra, from Finansia Syrus in Bangkok. “The election delivers a clear picture that Pheu Thai will head the new government with a strong mandate.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Anuchit Nguyen in Bangkok at anguyen@bloomberg.net; Yumi Teso in Bangkok at yteso1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Darren Boey at dboey@bloomberg.net; Sandy Hendry at shendry@bloomberg.net

[Rossco]

In the Nation Yesterday

Chart Thai Pattana Party leader Chumpol Silapa-archa on Sunday denied speculation that he was planning to meet ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in Hong Kong in order to form the next government.

Speaking before his flight departure, Chumpol said he planned his trip a month in advance to boost tourist arrivals.

Sounds a little too convenient that the leader of a party would visit Hong Kong on the night of the Election result......

[sexy69]

IMHO I would like to add to the posts, everyone has disregarded what is going on in the western hemisphere economically AS well AS the middle east. The west is covering up the financial folly (No thanks to the market in wall street) and all the mayhem along with it. The middle east, is trying to find its tail in ALL THAT THE WEST CALLS AN ARAB SPRING!??? Asia is still a safe haven and oddly some parts of Africa.

NOW, With regards to both parties the Le Chatelier principle should flow, which would be to let the people decide if all the time they waited was worth while.

BUT for us we only ask that we live in their country @ peace and harmony.

Shah

[Luung]

IMHO I would like to add to the posts, everyone has disregarded what is going on in the western hemisphere economically AS well AS the middle east. The west is covering up the financial folly (No thanks to the market in wall street) and all the mayhem along with it. The middle east, is trying to find its tail in ALL THAT THE WEST CALLS AN ARAB SPRING!??? Asia is still a safe haven and oddly some parts of Africa.

NOW, With regards to both parties the Le Chatelier principle should flow, which would be to let the people decide if all the time they waited was worth while.

BUT for us we only ask that we live in their country @ peace and harmony.

Shah

Hi Shah, I fully agree with your opening gambit, but I don't see the relevance that it has to the current election results?.. Unless of course you're talking about some of us crying in our beer about exchange rates, inflation & other stuff; otherwise it's just another reason as to why these people are having a far more comfortable time of it... And we're not.

The 'immediacy' of these people, their 'being in the now' makes them incredibly knee jerky with regard to demanding change, they're not on the whole interested in policies & national issues that don't affect themselves, just the finacial "Me Now" stuff, so any negative impact of external world factors to them will, if anything, just have them demanding the head of whoever is in power blaming 'them' for all their problems!

We still do it ourselves, all be it to a lesser degree, yet we consider ourselves educated & forward thinking, but power keeps swinging from one pole to another when the populous doesn't get what it wants. I don't think your Le Chatelier principle applies here... If these people voted on issues & policies I might want to agree with you, but JMHO, I think that if Thai people don't see tangible financial improvement to their lives by this time next Tuesday they'll want change & they'll be baying for blood again.

When the people who've waited so long decide that it's about time for their leadership to implement 'real' measures to close the poverty gap & put some sort of welfare provision in order then Asia might not be such a safe finacial haven anymore more? Imagine how far a country like China would slide backward if it had to make some sort of financial provision for the welfare of its poor... Let alone how far Thailand would slip?

Not so sure I want to live in their country anymore myself, I'm not seeing the peace & harmony anymore... the Thai's are a changing & they're changing fast... And I think a lot of us will get priced out sooner or later, at any rate?

[Rossco]

Good point re Social Welfare. Everybody wants it but nobody wants to pay for it.

Look at the US - the only 1st World country not to have a nationwide medical care program. They all want it but nobody wants to pay for it. The rich claim they already pay their way (insurances etc) so why should they pay/subsidize for others. Many administrations have tried but all find huge opposition. The drug companies and hospitals do not want to drop their prices so medical care remains relatively expensive.

At least in Thailand I can visit a pharmacy and pay a reasonable amount for most drugs. In the UK they charge over 8 USD per item on prescription (National Health system) - I can buy many items here for half of that. Where does the difference go? The pharmeceutical company purse.

I believe Thailand is in the same dilemma. I laud their increase of a minimum wage - 300 baht a day. In the West this would be a pitiful sum. However the employers will just pass on the increase to the consumer. Government needs to raise taxes to provide welfare - as a small percentage of the poulation pay significant sums in taxation then the alternative is to increase sales tax - that increases prices which in turn hits the minimum wage earner.

Yingluck has also promised that Post Op LBs can have their ID card changed to "Mrs" from "Mr" - now that is a good sign in the country finally recognisong the right for a person to change their gender. It only applies to Post Ops.

[rxpharm]

It really boils down to whether or not Thaksin decides to run the show openly. If he does, then plenty of problems will arise. If he lets Yingluck make decisions - or at least gives her the appearance of doing so, then things may remain relatively peaceful. However, a recent CNN interview seems to indicate what the plans are - she is quoted as saying the case against her brother could be reopened/reinvestigated as well as those of others to bring "justice" in these cases.

There is also a lot of lobbying for the "Reds" who were elected to get some of the cabinet posts. Interesting times ahead no doubt!

Rossco - can you send me a link where Yingluck promised postop lbs they could change their ID cards? When Thaksin was in power he was definitely anti-lb, anti-bar, anti-sex tourist, etc. It would be interesting if Yingluck would persue this if her brother disagrees.

[sexy69]

Hi to all, Thankyou Lung for your input. It is a a conundrum that the east is in, but still they have a better advantage than most. Hence, If the asian economies still choose to rival and set a coarse to over come other major economical power engines then i think they will fall into the gap u had mentioned. For now all we can do is as you said: " crying in our beer about exchange rates, inflation & other stuff "

Shah

[Luung]

Hi to all, Thankyou Lung for your input. It is a a conundrum that the east is in, but still they have a better advantage than most. Hence, If the asian economies still choose to rival and set a coarse to over come other major economical power engines then i think they will fall into the gap u had mentioned. For now all we can do is as you said: " crying in our beer about exchange rates, inflation & other stuff "

Shah

Yeah, I just changed a large chunk of Sterling into baht today... Cryings the word for it alright, there won't be any crab sticks in the fridge this week, that's for sure!

I think the main financial advantage that Thailand in particular had gained was in large part due to the prudence that had been shown since their collapse in 97 (JMHO), but that all seems to be going out of the window now with plenty of promises of loans being freely available to virtually all!?

Why haven't they learned by our mistakes, you can't always spend your way out of trouble.

The phrases property bubble & credit bubble seem to start springing directly to mind. You're right in calling it a conundrum Sexy69, especially when you combine the elements already mentioned here, across the board rising inflation, rising wages, rising value of the currency & incredibly low tax thresholds.

To my mind it's a 'house of cards' that's just stubbornly refusing to collapse.

Maybe we've got a new syndrome, 'The politics of immediacy' I think I'll call it!?

@Rossco, I think that maybe one of the reasons why there hasn't yet been any real social welfare reforms could be because we've all been keeping Isarn afloat for about the past 30 years or so now... We are their Social Security!

Anyway, full credit to Yingluck... If a boy want's to be a girl, then let him! Or her?... I Dunno now, I'm confused?

[sexy69]

Now now, do not get all worked over about it... perseverance is the word! And a great example would be Roscco, i have had long chats with him as well as other BM's that have a very good insght to how and where things are heading hopfully we are a bit more judicious on how to conduct our life, its our lively hood!

shah