Roll Those Tanks!

[SiamSam]

Spot on R67.

[pacman]

Here's an interesting take on what's going on over there - Putin has only started his acquisitive actions since he got hold of the stolen files from Edward Snowden. The Russians have been poring over them looking for incriminating evidence they can use against the US. As one US official declared when the files went missing, "they hold the keys to the kingdom".

 

It must be the US government's worst nightmare knowing Russia has this material. Once Putin had what he was looking for, he knew he could act with impunity. First he acquires Crimea, now he looks like taking Ukraine itself. Can you imagine what he could be telling Obama. Something along the lines of "do anything & I'll let the world know what you guys have been up to". 

 

Putin has details of American involvement in assassinations, rigging of elections, interference in foreign politics, even the involvement of the CIA in the murder of one of their own Presidents...   (IMO)

 

What's Obama going to do? Risk having all that released or stand by & allow Putin to carry out his plan? I bet he does the latter. He can argue he was avoiding war but he has much more to lose. I hope Putin will be satisfied with just Ukraine.

[Snick]

You're making two big assumptions

1. Putin has Snowden's files. Snowden insists that he was not traveling with the files and that he has not given them to Russia

2. That the files have historical data about black-ops, something which has never been mentioned. And Black Ops are usually done by CIA or others, not by the NSA.

 

Also Putin grabbed a 3rd of Georgia long before Snowden showed up.

 

I think the answer is 'simple', Putin is opportunistic and is slowly grabbing Soviet territory, gauging western reaction and since our reaction has been lame to say the least he keeps grabbing. He is probably pleasantly surprised at our weak defense of Ukraine which is why he is now in 'Phase 2'.

[pacman]

Yes I am making assumptions but I base them on what has transpired since Snowden took refuge in Russia. In answer to your first point, I don't know if Snowden is telling the truth but I find it strange that he would have let the files out of his sight. If they were all on one or more thumb drives he could have carried them in his pocket. Why would he risk leaving them somewhere else? I can't confirm he had them but I wouldn't be relying on his word he didn't.

 

And to address your second point, what is meant by "the keys to the kingdom" if the files don't contain some explosive information. There would never be official confirmation that there was incriminating information on the files, the US doesn't want to make this info any more attractive than it already is. By attractive I mean they don't want criminal organisations or Islam extremists or others to come chasing them. Though I guess they already are.

 

As for Georgia, yes, it does show Putin was testing the waters. Whether he was emboldened to have a go at Crimea before or after Snowden's arrival we will never know but it must have seemed a god-send when Edward rolled up.

 

I agree that Putin is being opportunistic but his hand will have been strengthened immeasurably if he now has embarrassing information harmful to US interests. We can only wait & see how far he decides to go but if he strikes no resistance it will be in no small part thanks to whatever is useful on Snowden's drives.

[SiamSam]

 I hope Putin will be satisfied with just Ukraine.

 

Mr. Hitler wasn't...

 

It won't stop. The delirious harvest of blackmail is never satisfied. It is like the EverReady pink bunny. It just keeps going and going until someone pulls the plug. 

[Snick]

I don't think Snowden's NSA documents really change anything.

Yes he is documenting how we spy on people, but everyone knew we were spying on people this is just the specifics of how we are doing it.

 

Hypothetically if Putin knew we were tapping all Chinese inter-government communications, would that be enough leverage to stop USA from supporting Ukraine ?

If so, why didn't he play that card during the upheavals when USA supported the ouster of Yanokovitch ?

 

I'm going with "Occam's razor", the simplest answer is usually the correct answer,

Putin is an opportunist who wants a 'legacy', he sees Obama and Europe as weak and will keeping pushing. 

[Snick]

Mr. Hitler wasn't...

 

It won't stop. The delirious harvest of blackmail is never satisfied. It is like the EverReady pink bunny. It just keeps going and going until someone pulls the plug. 

 

I wouldn't want to be in Georgia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, etc... right now.

[pacman]

I wouldn't want to be in Georgia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, etc... right now.

 

Moldova is thought to be the next cab off the rank.

[pacman]

I don't think Snowden's NSA documents really change anything.

Yes he is documenting how we spy on people, but everyone knew we were spying on people this is just the specifics of how we are doing it.

 

How can they not change everything? What world leader today isn't using an encrypted cell phone to talk on if they weren't already? What is not being sent by courier that was once emailed? As your comment applies to Putin, assuming he has this information he could start leading Obama around by the nose. Only Obama's future actions will give us any guide as to how concerned he is.

 

 

Hypothetically if Putin knew we were tapping all Chinese inter-government communications, would that be enough leverage to stop USA from supporting Ukraine ?

If so, why didn't he play that card during the upheavals when USA supported the ouster of Yanokovitch?

 

Regards your hypothetical comment, it would have been strange to say the least had the US not supported the Ukraine. Putin would have expected nothing less, it hasn't deterred him.

As to playing "that card" why would you use your Ace over something minor? Putin will choose the right moment to drop it on the US.

 

I'm going with "Occam's razor", the simplest answer is usually the correct answer,

Putin is an opportunist who wants a 'legacy', he sees Obama and Europe as weak and will keeping pushing. 

 

I'm very familiar with Occam's Razor but it doesn't allow for extenuating circumstances. Or rather it does but chooses to ignore them. Life is not always black & white & given the timing & the addition of Edward Snowden thrown into the mix, I can't help but feel there's more going on than we can conclude.

 

But I do enjoy the exercise of speculating how one event impacts another. Plus history is littered with stories of those behind-the-scenes events that changed the outcome of history. Suddenly Putin is emboldened like never before. He is moving inexorably towards the resumption of lost countries. Why now & what has changed? 

 

Yes, he's an opportunist & this will make for a great legacy. But if the US does nothing will history record that Obama was just trying to avoid a war or will it emerge there was a darker reason? 

 

I don't know but I won't rule out the possibility. 

[Tomcat]

The Wall St Journal ( the Thai Airways freebie edition) had a good article which describes Putin as a Fascist in the style of Mussolini in which the state is everything. He has even sent a reading list to all those in Govt circles of old Russian Philosophers who embrace these theories.

 

Russia is basically a Large Gas Company with Tanks in the current situation.. its his poker hand so to speak .

 

Of course Ukraine has the wheat and i think they are the worlds 4th largest exporter, maybe hes after that

[pacman]

I liked John McCain's description of Russia as "a gas station being run by the mafia". More than half of Russia's gas exports are piped through the Ukraine & Putin needs to take back the country to safeguard against the threat of Ukrainian nationalists from bombing the pipeline.

 

These latest events in Odessa have taken the world closer to war than at any time since the Cuban missile crisis. The Ukraine army are attacking the rebels who are Russian in everything but name. They are armed & funded by Russia & if they get badly beaten, who knows what's coming next?

 

With Russia also supplying all the weapons to Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Putin is the world's number one warmonger. If the west fails to act he will only get worse.

 

Comparisons to Hitler are very apt. Sanctions imposed by the west are making Putin very angry. Does Obama have the will to take him on? I worry the answer is no. Though I also think an irrational Putin will do something that will leave Obama no choice.

 

Wow, what a fun day I'm having here...       

[Snick]

[xyzzy]

Does Obama have the will to take him on? I worry the answer is no. Though I also think an irrational Putin will do something that will leave Obama no choice.

I would think the bigger problem would be when will Europe be ready to bite the bullet and have their Russian gas supply shut down. Europe will suffer the most. What can the US do until the Europeans agree?

[pacman]

I would think the bigger problem would be when will Europe be ready to bite the bullet and have their Russian gas supply shut down. Europe will suffer the most. What can the US do until the Europeans agree?

 

Europe may have no choice but to have their gas cut off. I think Putin's behaviour is the bigger problem no matter how you cut & dice it.

 

But I think you have touched on the solution to the problem at the same time. i.e. Europe can't live without the gas, Putin can't live without the income. They both have sound reasons to keep the status quo. And it is for that matter they may decide that Ukraine is expendable.

 

The question no one can answer, would that be enough to placate Vladimir? If no then we are at war.