Both main parties’ economic plans consist of spend, spend, spend (which could be devastating based on Thailand GDP growth of 7.8% in 2010). Might make ‘Quantitative Easing’ seem a bit lame! No party has suggested economic prudence, because it doesn’t win (buy) any votes. The Finance Minister (who is experienced and sensible) has been kept quiet by the Democrats, because the new government would almost certainly face a big hole in its finances (given that Thailand is not given to paying taxes) and VAT could well rise from 7%. And/or wage inflation would badly affect exports. That’s not to say low wages shouldn’t be increased – but the massive bids by both parties on minimum wage look unrealistic. Still… they are only promises made at an election, so don’t really count.
Democrat election posters lie splintered all along Ploenchit Road. Jatuporn remains in jail, despite being a Red Shirt candidate for Pheu Thai, and has been refused permission to vote (which in turn may get him removed from office ….. ) Speculation that Head of the Army wouldn’t work with the Shinawatra clan (denied of course).
My ‘best scenario’ is that Pheu Thai win (but not with an overall majority). So they need other smaller parties to get their snouts in the trough. That ‘might’ keep a rein on the Thaksin excesses (such as personal greed/power) and delay his return to Thailand (which I see as the clincher for a coup to happen).
Both Yellow shirts & Red shirts have already shown they care nothing for the world’s view of Thailand, and I have little doubt the Reds will be revolting if they don’t get their way. Democracy, eh, don’t you love it? Perhaps Hun Sen in Cambodia has got it right – 25 years in power, very little dissent, all his people in key positions in Police & Army, and no other considerations. Almost a role model, you might say.
There are other influences, which I cannot comment on. Let’s hope those don’t add another factor to the election aftermath.
Todays headlines ('The Nation'). We'll soon find out, but I'm not optimistic about the next 12 months in LOS.