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ICU and Ventilator Stats


Pdoggg

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I'm thinking that perhaps the best metrics to track Covid trends in Thailand are ICU and Ventilator stats.  Hospitalizations are probably extremely misleading in Thailand since asymptomatic people are sometimes hospitalized.  Deaths are a lagging indicator.  New cases are a function of testing.

Being seriously ill is what most of us are really concerned about which is what ICU and ventilator stats track.  OK, being sent to a field hospital while healthy is a concern too.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/  is a website where you can track this on a daily basis. In the screenshot below, on the bottom right of the graphic, I believe the Purple 495 are Thailand ICU patients not on a ventilator and the Lavender 115 are the number of people in Thailand on ventilators.  But even if I'm wrong and the 495 includes the 115 on ventilators, it doesn't really matter for daily trend purposes.

If this interests anyone then feel free to post a screenshot if you visit the site in the future.

 

Screen Shot 2565-01-10 at 21.24.30.png 

 

 

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I'm thinking that perhaps the best metrics to track Covid trends in Thailand are ICU and Ventilator stats.  Hospitalizations are probably extremely misleading in Thailand since asymptomatic people are sometimes hospitalized.  Deaths are a lagging indicator.  New cases are a function of testing.
Being seriously ill is what most of us are really concerned about which is what ICU and ventilator stats track.  OK, being sent to a field hospital while healthy is a concern too.
https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/  is a website where you can track this on a daily basis. In the screenshot below, on the bottom right of the graphic, I believe the Purple 495 are Thailand ICU patients not on a ventilator and the Lavender 115 are the number of people in Thailand on ventilators.  But even if I'm wrong and the 495 includes the 115 on ventilators, it doesn't really matter for daily trend purposes.
If this interests anyone then feel free to post a screenshot if you visit the site in the future.
 
1567615297_ScreenShot2565-01-10at21_24_30.png.cfcf14f893378af1e2d051ed7943a3b3.png 
 
 
I'm wondering, how much the sheer increase in (ATK) testings had to do with Chon Buri getting to the #1 spot on the daily COVID charts...

Metrics must be country specific IMO... Because the # of people going to a hospital (or to 'hospitels') in Thailand can hardly be compared to the # of people who have tested positive in farangland and go to hospital there because I think in farangland people go to hospital only (or at least primarily) if they're symptomatic... If they're asymptomatic they simply stay at home...

In Thailand many people are sharing one bedroom or are sleeping in a common sleeping area. In Thailand it is not common that everyone has their own room - at least not for lower class Thais...

And even in farangland, the situation differs from country to country (Portugal vs. the UK or the US for example).

(Sorry, can't open the webpage

https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/

- probably because my ISP / VPN location is outside the LOS...)

In summary: Yeah I totally agree with you: The ICU occupancy rate (or even the absolute number of people in ICUs) is a better short-term indicator than absolute case numbers I think...

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  • 1 month later...

I get the sense from talking to guys on the ground that they are less worried about Covid than they were when Baby New Year rolled into town on a night with a civilized 1AM bar closing time.  However ICU and Ventilator stats are on the rise.

Quote

A particularly concerning number was the rate of critically ill patients with pneumonia or who needed the support of ventilators. The number of critical patients with pneumonia had increased from 500 cases nationally in the past few weeks to 749 cases currently while the number of patients on ventilators has also risen from about 100 to 184.

https://thepattayanews.com/2022/02/20/will-songkran-happen-this-year-leading-thai-doctor-says-booster-vaccinations-must-increase-and-the-public-must-work-together-to-have-a-happy-new-thai-year/

 

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9 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

I get the sense from talking to guys on the ground that they are less worried about Covid than they were when Baby New Year rolled into town on a night with a civilized 1AM bar closing time.  However ICU and Ventilator stats are on the rise.

 

So are Covid stats. See the second graph. 

http://www.ladyboyreview.com/index.php?/topic/8429-coronavirus/&do=findComment&comment=215167

 

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13 hours ago, Pulci Gorgon said:

So are Covid stats. See the second graph. 

Absolutely.   I guess what I meant to say is the prevailing attitude is sure Covid stats are rising but Omicron will not hospitalize you especially if you are triple vaxed.   But serious cases are also rising but not to the dramatic degree that new cases are.  My guess is that new cases in Thailand will peak in early March and then drop sharply. 

Btw (even the Grunt knows this acronym), that's a nice website you came across PG!

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On 2/21/2022 at 7:35 PM, Pdoggg said:

Absolutely.   I guess what I meant to say is the prevailing attitude is sure Covid stats are rising but Omicron will not hospitalize you especially if you are triple vaxed.   But serious cases are also rising but not to the dramatic degree that new cases are.  My guess is that new cases in Thailand will peak in early March and then drop sharply

Btw (even the Grunt knows this acronym), that's a nice website you came across PG!

 I hope so too. The last wave we've experienced should also be the last one of the pandemics. I hope it's just a lag between most of the world and SE Asia countries. It's impressive to see the curve of Thailand (skyrocketing) crossing the US curve, the curve of Vietnam about to reach the curve of Europe and the curve of Singapore crossing the curve of Netherlands (the highest in Europe during this last wave). 

The website was created by a French student who specialized in open data. What is a common phenomenon in the USA is very rare in France. Guillaume Rozier graduated a middle range engineering school specialized in IT and telecoms as well as a MBA. In 2020, he couldn't follow his practice in a bank since he was locked down because of the pandemics. He was doing the same as what I did : watching data and trying to understand. At my side, I was picking up stats in wikipedia to add them in a tab and I drawed graphics in paints. Guillaume Rozier had to stay home and telecommute. He used his ability to collect datas and create this informative website. He's now employed at Accenture (ex Andersen consulting). As he says "Open Data is a weapon against conspiracy theories and people who do not believe in numbers since it offers the possibility of checking the numbers and therefore eliminating doubts". 

:crazy: I should contact him to create a website with hundreds of contacts with Chinese and/or Vietnamese ladyboys. 

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New daily Covid cases in Thailand are at an all time today; over 25K new cases.  To put this in perspective, back in 2020 the entire province of Rayong was locked down when just one case was found there.

Yes, the severity of the Big O is tame compared to Delta, but Omicron is so contagious that ICU and Ventilator patients have doubled.

I get the impression that a more or less healthy person who is triple vaxed is relatively safe, now is not the time to go to a packed indoor cockfight.

Based on worldwide stats, Omicron should peak in Thailand sometime in March so there is a small chance that those dreaming of a wet Songkran could get their wish  

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8 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

New daily Covid cases in Thailand are at an all time today; over 25K new cases.  To put this in perspective, back in 2020 the entire province of Rayong was locked down when just one case was found there.

Yes, the severity of the Big O is tame compared to Delta, but Omicron is so contagious that ICU and Ventilator patients have doubled.

I get the impression that a more or less healthy person who is triple vaxed is relatively safe, now is not the time to go to a packed indoor cockfight.

Based on worldwide stats, Omicron should peak in Thailand sometime in March so there is a small chance that those dreaming of a wet Songkran could get their wish  

Needless to panic though. This is typically the Omicron wave. Regretfully, it should be 10 to 15 % as deadly as the first wave then initiate what we hope to be the end of the pandemics. The rise in new cases was impressive in Europe end of december, now the drop is impressive too. This week, we've had our lowest R0 value since the beginning of the pandemics. We can hope May will be a good month in SE Asia if they manage it well. 

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1 hour ago, Pulci Gorgon said:

if they manage it well. 

I'm wondering what should be done to manage it well.   Perhaps Omicron shouldn't be slowed down. Once school of thought is to let it rip.  Give the reckless their freedom which will hasten herd immunity. Cautious folks like me and QG can hide out in their rooms while everyone else is french kissing and rimming.

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14 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

I'm wondering what should be done to manage it well.   Perhaps Omicron shouldn't be slowed down. Once school of thought is to let it rip.  Give the reckless their freedom which will hasten herd immunity. Cautious folks like me and QG can hide out in their rooms while everyone else is french kissing and rimming.

 I think this well may be the solution !  :drinks:

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  • 1 month later...

Nobody seems concerned about Covid anymore here in Pattaya.  But then there are also lots of bareback riders here too.

Yes, the Big O is not as severe as Delta but the record breaking number of new cases is leading to increased number of people in ICU or on ventilators.  Get your booster jabs!

409156275_Dash2022-04-01a.jpg.21ef81e4cac6bcb28b65b8d4135f3b08.jpg

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23 hours ago, Ashoka said:

Gonna get my second booster this week.. I don't want to take a chance when I'm in LOS starting next month.. better to be safe than sorry!

Odd. Felt like no one cared about Covid anymore here, then today authorities recommend and offer a 2nd booster for people over 65 starting now. Makes sense though. The backlog on healthcare is suffocating our system.

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15 hours ago, seven said:

Odd. Felt like no one cared about Covid anymore here, then today authorities recommend and offer a 2nd booster for people over 65 starting now. Makes sense though. The backlog on healthcare is suffocating our system.

The UK Government doesn't mention covid now, after Boris declared 'Freedom Day' on 24 February. But cases are rising again, though they seem to be mainly the Omicron version. Health care professionals are saying hospital wards are in danger of being overwhelmed.

Fourth 'booster' vaccinations are being offered to over 75s and those with weakened immune systems. Vaccinations are also being offered for young children now.

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