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COVID-19 in Thailand 2020: "too good to be true" ? & "the worse is yet to come?"


Rom

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2 hours ago, blind boy grunt said:

Then witness the drivers of the baht busses refusing to leave pattaya to Jomtien until the bus is crammed full with 12 people.

I have had good luck walking 100 yards past the baht bus queue and waiting for an almost empty baht bus.

What governments do regarding mask mandates, social distancing rules, business closures etc. are out of my control.   So instead I try to focus on what I need to do to keep myself safe which is avoiding people to a large degree until my vaccine kicks in and wearing a good mask if on a crowded baht bus or Immigration filled with hundreds of people.

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In starting this thread one year ago, I underscored covid would inevitably get pandemic-bad in Thailand.  Took longer than I had expected, but last week I finally confirmed it with stats and a prognosis that infections and deaths would get worse, which they have.

But I also assessed Thailand gained precious time by avoiding the pandemic stage last year and the death toll will not be as bad as it might have been last year due to the fact that since then medical responses got better including vaccination of Thais (15% as of today), as opposed to last year when vaccines did not exist.

To help grasp that, here is a timeline comparison I prepared betwen Thailand (pop.: 70 million) and the UK (pop: 67 million) that have about the same populations.  As you can see, the UK's initial covid deaths accelerating stage was much more pronounced (more deaths) than Thailand is at its own initial stage one year later.  Based on UK-comparable extrapolation of the Thai trend, it is unlikely deaths in Thailand will reach 1000 per day (like they did in the UK) and will likely peak at less than 400.   That wil be dozens of thousands of deaths fewer than in the UK.  So well done in 2020 Thailand !   Not so much in 2021 where the vaccination part could move faster and more lives saved.

39297553_covidthailandandUK.png.722658af7f43da74967e438e23c98de1.png

 

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1 hour ago, Rom said:

vaccination of Thais (15% as of today),

Depends how you spin the numbers. Only 5.8% had 2 jabs. The second jab has recently proved to be crucial.

1 hour ago, Rom said:

So well done in 2020 Thailand !   Not so much in 2021 where the vacination part could move faster and more lives saved.

I disagree. They did fuck all, but denying they had any covid.

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On 7/22/2021 at 2:48 AM, seven said:

Great post, Rom.

It will never be the same. Many trips later its so obvious. I'm too old now to discover new hunting grounds but even if I had the stamina I doubt I could find another place similar to Pattaya. Sweet memories. I hope we can get back there and if  only 50% of all the nice ladymen pre covid would still be there I'd be happy. I want to revisit Bkk again, a place I deliberately skipped the last few trips.

I can't stand noise pollution, crowds, traffic and all the other old-man symptoms  anymore. Maybe I should just stay home and live on memories.

 

I forgot to post an answer or rather a question raised by your post. If your monger's attention is focused only onto Pattaya, if you don't want to find another place, why did you insist to become a member of my club ? It's obvious one can deal with any ladyboy subject in the club except Pattaya that is covered in every other club or subforum. What's the purpose ? 

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19 hours ago, seven said:

I didn’t insist, just asked you. By all means, remove me if you wish to do so.

 

You'd be too ^proud if I did so. BTW, something will change in the club when I find enough time to take care of it. I am amzed by your versatility. I will make decisions when time will come. 

 

On 8/5/2021 at 12:47 AM, Rom said:

In starting this thread one year ago, I underscored covid would inevitably get pandemic-bad in Thailand.  Took longer than I had expected, but last week I finally confirmed it with stats and a prognosis that infections and deaths would get worse, which they have.

But I also assessed Thailand gained precious time by avoiding the pandemic stage last year and the death toll will not be as bad as it might have been last year due to the fact that since then medical responses got better including vaccination of Thais (15% as of today), as opposed to last year when vaccines did not exist.

To help grasp that, here is a timeline comparison I prepared betwen Thailand (pop.: 70 million) and the UK (pop: 67 million) that have about the same populations.  As you can see, the UK's initial covid deaths accelerating stage was much more pronounced (more deaths) than Thailand is at its own initial stage one year later.  Based on UK-comparable extrapolation of the Thai trend, it is unlikely deaths in Thailand will reach 1000 per day (like they did in the UK) and will likely peak at less than 400.   That wil be dozens of thousands of deaths fewer than in the UK.  So well done in 2020 Thailand !   Not so much in 2021 where the vaccination part could move faster and more lives saved.

39297553_covidthailandandUK.png.722658af7f43da74967e438e23c98de1.png

 

 

I had rather let this type of stat analysis and comparisons  to epidemiologists and experts. What is explained in rich countries now is that vaccines are the best weapons against Covid and variant Delta. Experts expect a new variant to come in Winter. It should be more aggressive in countries of the temperate world. We'll see what happens then. 

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BANGKOK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Thailand could see coronavirus cases double to 45,000 per day by early next month, even with current lockdown measures in place, its COVID-19 taskforce said on Friday, as authorities urged people to stay home to reduce infection risks.

Thailand has been struggling with its worst outbreak so far, with a daily average of 20,000 new infections and 180 deaths in the past week, compared to 70 new cases and single-digit daily fatalities less than five months ago.

Current travel restrictions and containment measures in place over the past month have yet to make an impact, the taskforce said.

A record 23,418 new cases were announced on Friday, taking overall cases to 863,189, with 7,126 deaths.

end.png

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailand-reports-second-day-record-coronavirus-cases-2021-08-13/

 

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BANGKOK, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Thailand's passed the 1 million mark in coronavirus cases on Friday, 97% of which were recorded in the past five months, as the country struggles to boost vaccinations and get on top of one of Asia's most severe COVID-19 outbreaks.

Authorities on Friday reported 19,851 cases and 240 fatalities, taking total confirmed infections past 1 million and deaths to 8,826, a death ratio of 0.87% of confirmed cases.

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imagine if the fuckers had been vaccinating in large numbers for the last 5 months.

Bill Gates needs to buy up and pass out a half a billion or so doses to those who are "the expendables".   You can bet the elite in LOS get it if they want.  Or does incompetence trump wealth?

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 8/4/2021 at 11:47 PM, Rom said:

(...) it is unlikely deaths in Thailand will reach 1000 per day (like they did in the UK) and will likely peak at less than 400 (...)

Peaked at 312 to be exact...  Looksee:

thai312.png.f18c2c637b435fe0a537a57330e37f43.png

It's now statistically conclusive to say the worst of the Thai covid pandemic is over and although I suspect the number of deaths were undereported (15,246 as of the day before this post) it was nowhere near the numbers we saw in Europe and the US.  Well done Thailand!  What's next?   When can we go back to the playhouse ?

That's not a call I can make by extrapolating other countries' trends like I did for the peak number of deaths, so some conjecturing is in order...

1st conjecture:  I doubt Thailand will reopen for mongering business before the 70% (the covid "herd immunity" threshold) are vaccinated.  As of today, 20% of the population have both shots,  40% have 1 (which means they are all but immunized and will have both shots soon enough):

thaivax.png.006712f2959081f7b2b51c53f7dbca3e.png

2nd conjecture:  it took 4 months to get to 40% vaccinated with at least 1 shot, but momentum has been gained along the way so I would say another 2 months to get to 70%...  That means Thailand could reopen just in time for the Christmas high season with some lesser controls in place (no quarantines, but vaccine certificates required, and possibly some testing on arrival and during the stay).

3rd conjecture:  but I think it's going to take a little longer because there is clearly significant Thai resistance to the vaccination with China's Sinovac, which is the one vaccine being provided for free for most people.  I know this because a couple of my Thai ladyboy acquaintances told me they would rather pay 1500+ baht for the shots with a farang vaccine in a private clinic then get the free Sinovac in the government's  Issaan outposts.  And knowing the Thais, if taking Sinovac somehow conveys lack of social status, then many will rather risk infection than taking it.  There is also the underlying FACT that Sinovac offers a lesser level of protection and at some point the Thai authorities are going to have to come to grips with that and offer boosters or else start over with farang vaccines for ALL the Thais who did not develop lasting antibodies (and many people don't as is being documented in Hong Kong).

So my fearless prognosis is:  Q1-2022 might be possible to travel back to LOS with tolerable inconveniences and enough bars open in Patts and BKK.   Mid-2022 will be more like it, especially in terms of airlines resuming regular flights to BKK with sufficient frequence and affordable prices.

BUT... and this is a huge BUT,... if a new covid variant worse than DELTA pops up that is resistant to the vaccines then all bets are off, and not mongering in Pattaya will be the least of our inconveniences.

Whadyall think?   Q1-2022?  Mid - 2022 ?  Sooner ?  Later ?

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  • 2 weeks later...

It appears dodgy massage upstairs will be permitted.  Currently only foot massage is allowed in Pattaya but I've heard  (not me, I am not fully vaxed) that girls routinely bring guys upstairs.

The CCSA had a meeting this morning and this is what they are recommending for October.  There is a cabinet meeting tomorrow which should finalize regulations on a national level but provincial governors have the authority to tighten regulations.  Nothing about bars reopening or booze permitted in restaurants.

Quote

The following businesses and venues have been permitted to reopen on Friday (October 1):

• Child development centres: Can reopen if approved by the local communicable disease committee.

• Libraries, museums or art galleries: Visitors limited to 75 per cent of total capacity, must wear face masks, no food.

• Nail salons: Customers must book services in advance.

• Tattoo shops: Customers must be fully vaccinated or show a negative antigen test taken within 72 hours and must book services in advance.

Spas and massage shops: Customers must book in advance for services that can last no more than 2 hours, and must be fully vaccinated or show a negative antigen test taken within 72 hours

• Cinemas: Must close at 9pm and limit customers to 50 per cent capacity.

The curfew will also be reduced to 10pm-4am from October 1, while complexes, convenience stores and sports areas – indoor and outdoor – can stay open an hour longer until 9pm.

Meanwhile, music bands of up to five people can play in restaurants though all except the singer must wear face masks.

Taweesin added that quarantine for Thai returnees and foreign travellers will be reduced from 14 days to 7 days from October 1, if they have vaccine certificate.

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40006707

 

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seems they'll be lessening restraints very soon. CoE likely to be altered to ease up. Talk now in many circles is ENDEMIC, meaning we're just gonna have to keep up the vax'n and live with it. They'll be serving booze at restaurants soon and the gov is easing quarantine some, lots of good info on Thaiger news.  But having shot themselves in BOTH feet flip flopping on when they'll open, international tourism is backing off big time. I read that for example billions of baht in repairs and refitting of planes, boats and hotels is needed and THAT they can't do overnight. Likely they'll most of this "high" season if not all.  I get the feeling that the government FINALLY gets that any more lockdown/restrictions and the economy will go DOA. Thousands are eating because of expat groups getting out there with food bags regularly. The only way the gov can save ANY face is to quit being such a draconian asshat and ease up on things for REAL. Even if this happens and tourists begin flowing in again it'll be a trickle at first as the whole infrastructure is gutted.  Workers home in Issan, etc.  I'm eager to see how things are by December, it should be starting to roll by then I think.

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