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Do You Think You’ll Be Back Before the End of the Year?


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7 minutes ago, Tomcat said:

yes this is a big issue ... my feeling is that you will need a Certificate of testing to fly... otherwise the travel biz is a goner as it cant wait 18 months.

Also Singapore  just closed terminal 2  at Changi  for 18 months which gives a clue

 

They're also talking about closing Terminal 4.

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On 4/3/2020 at 2:08 AM, Tomcat said:

my guess is that you will need a certificate to fly, at some point,  either the antibody test or the swab test. The airlines will be the last business to come out of this mess IMO... i hope im wrong

You're not alone here. Our head honcho (scientist, no agenda driven politician) , suggests travelling as we know it might be over with in the future. Far more restrictions, proof of no infections, proof of immunity etc. Not only that but lots of other travel restrictions/ precautions for the next pandemic. So far hes been right in everything.

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6 hours ago, seven said:

You're not alone here. Our head honcho (scientist, no agenda driven politician) , suggests travelling as we know it might be over with in the future. Far more restrictions, proof of no infections, proof of immunity etc. Not only that but lots of other travel restrictions/ precautions for the next pandemic. So far hes been right in everything.

I’d say it is likely the airlines will use this crisis as an excuse to reduce services and raise prices in the future. I can’t see health certificates being a requirement for international travel in the long term as that would too drastically reduce the amount of customers and profit, and interfere with the global economy.

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Travel and tourism is massive for some countries as it is pretty much all they have.  Over restrict and it'd be a trip back to the dark ages for some.

A population up-blip will likely show in the future from these times, despite corona related deaths, as many lives have been saved through non-accidents which would otherwise have happened while everyone's confined or have retricted movement.

I'm still in Pattaya. Afterall, it is currently my home. My annual trip home to the UK didn't happen, for obvious reasons.

Yesterday, with the limited options for food being available due to many restaurants being closed I was thinking what I might have to eat. I could murder a Chinese. 

Chow Soy it was. Pork curry, rice and chips to go.

Give it a few more months and I'll be looking like a fat version of Tom Hanks in Castaway, hopefully minus corona. 

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17 hours ago, Sylvester said:

I’d say it is likely the airlines will use this crisis as an excuse to reduce services and raise prices in the future. 

 ...this virus is not going anywhere now , its on the calendar now like seasonal flu.  Prices will go up for sure and half the Travel Companies will be wiped out as will many airlines. The dark ages are a coming...

 

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On 4/6/2020 at 12:26 AM, RandiUno2 said:

 

Will rebook as soon as a vaccine is developed and deployed world wide. I see that as the only way resort destinations will ever truly open up again. 

 

We dont even have a vaccine for HIV and its been around 40 years  let alone this monster .... 18 months would be a miracle.   ... even 10 years would not be a surprise,.

An Italian minister said today we have to co exist with the Virus .  If flying comes back before Xmas it will come with health warning wrapped around the fuselage     " enjoy this trip as it may be your last"  . Lets face it even getting on an un packed train is a death sentence if you dont wear gloves

Economy class will be the new petri dish.. I never fly Economy and  even then around one in three flights i get some malady from the buggers around me. This virus is easy to catch and thats the nub

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13 minutes ago, Tomcat said:

we have to co exist with the Virus .

Yep, which isn't a problem per se, but the road to manageable levels is rough. 

Either we cane the living shit out of  curfew offenders like in India and hope it'll go away, or we try to beat it in a more civilised and scientific way.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xgqjyd/sweden-thinks-herd-immunity-is-the-answer-to-coronavirus?utm_source=dmfb&fbclid=IwAR0c-xaLdvJoKuwoEOL9tJtDf_vbMOsoUihB9vtkNp7q1ypduO_q9cDQOiA

 

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When Boris gets back i think we will be back to the herd route.   Thats for sure . When the Govt said stay at home and dont go to work they did not expect 9 million people to follow suit... they planned for 3  million and hoped to go the Herd way. I agree with the Swedish way

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5 minutes ago, Tomcat said:

When Boris gets back i think we will be back to the herd route.   Thats for sure . When the Govt said stay at home and dont go to work they did not expect 9 million people to follow suit... they planned for 3  million and hoped to go the Herd way.

Yup, a whole lot of people looked at the 80% and thought "I can live on that for a couple of months, sit at home doing fuck all and still have liveable income".

Problem was I think the Govt. believed that there would be more of a backlash than actually happened, and they would roll down some restrictions on the back of it. But too many companies/individuals were scared by the hysteria created by the MSM, hence where we are now.

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Being here full time I would really like to be back in Australia on the 23 rd may for my dad's 90th birthday but there is no way would risk it even if they gave us the all clear. I always  seem to get a bug of some sort when traveling on a plane  and the last thing I want to do is give him anything, even the common cold could do him in .

   Shore a vaccine would be great but what side effects will it have ,even the flue shot is bad for some people ( my dad included) and it is the old story ( sady ) you need the virus before you can make a vaccine .

  What will the next out of control VIRUS be called and when will it hit ?

 

 Sorry to through a spanner in the works guys but it is FACT not fiction. 

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26 minutes ago, stoolpusher said:

r. I always  seem to get a bug of some sort when traveling on a plane  

 

that was my point and so many people have the same experience....three years back i sat behind two guys who were coughing and spluttering all the way and i lo and behold i caught that Aussie Flu that nearly killed me.... 

When this anti body test is out ill be the first in the queue and just hope i have had the dreaded Covid . 

80% of us are going to get this anyway IMHO unless you go and live in the Doomsday Vault for the next three years

th.jpg

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According to an airline spokesperson I heard the other day, you cannot pickup a cold virus through the planes air system. He said they filter out about 98% of any contaminants. Better tell that that to many passengers including myself, who have come down with something 2 or 3 days after flying.

The worst I had was way back in '98 when I flew to France via Los Angeles. Left Brisbane and picked up more passengers in Sydney. Half of those getting on board were coughing and wheezing. There was an epidemic going around. Was ok for the couple of days I was in LA, but by the time I got to France I was hit by the second worst virus I have ever had.(the worst was one I caught in the mid seventies). Think it was the Hong Kong flu?.

Anyway in Paris, I thought I was going to die.  Only lasted about 3 days and I was sort of back to normal again.

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Most large modern passenger planes have High Efficiency Particulate Air filters installed (anything newer than 20 years old or so). Here is a paper from the International Air Traffic Association describing the requirements:

Quote

Briefing paper Cabin air quality – Risk of communicable diseases transmission The overall risk of contracting a disease from an ill person onboard an airplane is similar to that in other confined areas with high occupant density, such as a bus, a subway, or movie theatre for a similar time of exposure. anywhere where a person is in close contact with others. That said, the risk on airplanes is probably lower than in many confined spaces because modern airplanes have cabin air filtration systems equipped with HEPA filters. HEPA or high efficiency particulate air filters have similar performance to those used to keep the air clean in hospital operating rooms and industrial clean rooms. These filters are very effective at trapping microscopic particles as small as bacteria and viruses. HEPA filters are effective at capturing greater than 99 percent of the airborne microbes in the filtered air. Filtered, recirculated air provides higher cabin humidity levels and lower particulate levels than 100% outside air systems. The cabin air system is designed to operate most efficiently by delivering approximately 50 percent outside air and 50 percent filtered, recirculated air. This normally provides between 15 to 20 cubic feet of total air supply per minute per person in economy class. The total air supply is essentially sterile and particle-free. Cabin air circulation is continuous. Air is always flowing into and out of the cabin. Total airflow to the cabin is supplied at a bulk flow rate equivalent to 20 to 30 air changes per hour. This provides temperature control and minimizes temperature gradients within the cabin.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: What is a HEPA filter? According to the European air filter efficiency classification, a HEPA (High Efficiency Particulate Air) filter can be any filter element rated between 85% and 99.995% removal efficiency. For their production of aircraft with cabin air recirculation systems, manufacturers have chosen the higher efficiency filters, which aresimilar to what you would find in a hospital operating theatre. 2 Briefing paper – Cabin air quality IATA Corporate Communications January 2018

Q2: Are all commercial aircraft fitted with HEPA filters? The majority of modern, large, commercial aircraft, which use a recirculation type of cabin air system, utilise HEPA filters. A small number of older aircraft types have filters with lower efficiencies.

Q3: What is the e smallest particle size that the cabin air filter element can remove? Air filters can remove very small particles such as bacteria and viruses. Virtually all viruses and bacteria are removed; even the most difficult particles in the range of 0.1 to 0.3 micron are filtered out with an efficiency level of of 99.995%. Contrary to popular belief, very small particles below 0.1 micron are easily filtered out by the mechanism of diffusional interception.

Q4: How often are filters changed? The interval varies by aircraft. Most airlines replace cabin air filters at regular "hard time" intervals to fit in with routine scheduled maintenance periods, as long as these intervals do not exceed filter manufacturers’ recommendations.

Q5: What happens if the cabin air filter elements are not changed out regularly? Air flow through the filter might be reduced, but the efficiency of the filter at capturing viruses and bacteria is not affected.

Q6: Is there a danger to the maintenance personnel by removing used cabin air filters? There is no more risk involved in replacing a cabin air filterthan carrying out general maintenance on any aircraft part that has been in service for a number of years. Working with WHO, IATA has published guidance material for maintenance staff which is available at http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/safety/health/Pages/diseases.aspx. *

This briefing paper was assembled from information provided by Airbus, Boeing and Pall Corporate

The most likely way to catch something on an airplane that has a HEPA filter system is to touch something that was contaminated, not cleaned properly, and then touch your face. The other way would be if someone sick coughed or sneezed directly on you.

Compare the situation on cruise ships that don't have HEPA filters - you can see significant amounts of people picking up any viral/bacterial illness due to lack of HEPA filters and touching contaminated surfaces, plus being on the ship for days at a time.

If airplanes were as bad as you think then infections would be much higher than they are.

In the future, I would predict there would be more screening for illness - Eithad Airlines is testing a kiosk that will check your temperature, plus ask health questions and your travel history, to screen out potentially sick passengers before boarding.

I think that smaller discount carriers that don't have much capital and lack national support will likely go under. The larger national carriers will likely survive, as most countries are going to bail them out. Ticket prices will probably be low at first as people will be reluctant to travel (and aviation fuel prices will be low), but then increase due to lack of competition.

I will definitely be back to LOS before the end of the year, but likely will be wearing a surgical mask while in the airports, and an N95 mask on the plane in case someone sneezes or coughs on me, as well as disinfectant wipes to clean the tray table and arm rests. When SARS happened in 2003, I wore an N95 mask while flying.

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1 hour ago, rxpharm said:

Most large modern passenger planes have High Efficiency Particulate Air filters installed (anything newer than 20 years old or so). Here is a paper from the International Air Traffic Association describing the requirements:

The most likely way to catch something on an airplane that has a HEPA filter system is to touch something that was contaminated, not cleaned properly, and then touch your face. The other way would be if someone sick coughed or sneezed directly on you.

Compare the situation on cruise ships that don't have HEPA filters - you can see significant amounts of people picking up any viral/bacterial illness due to lack of HEPA filters and touching contaminated surfaces, plus being on the ship for days at a time.

If airplanes were as bad as you think then infections would be much higher than they are.

In the future, I would predict there would be more screening for illness - Eithad Airlines is testing a kiosk that will check your temperature, plus ask health questions and your travel history, to screen out potentially sick passengers before boarding.

I think that smaller discount carriers that don't have much capital and lack national support will likely go under. The larger national carriers will likely survive, as most countries are going to bail them out. Ticket prices will probably be low at first as people will be reluctant to travel (and aviation fuel prices will be low), but then increase due to lack of competition.

I will definitely be back to LOS before the end of the year, but likely will be wearing a surgical mask while in the airports, and an N95 mask on the plane in case someone sneezes or coughs on me, as well as disinfectant wipes to clean the tray table and arm rests. When SARS happened in 2003, I wore an N95 mask while flying.

I agree that touching things is a good way to catch something on a plane. BUT I would argue that being in a confined tube with 300 other people is a great way of catching bugs. I speak to many people who agree that flying is a great way to get sick!. I would argue that most of the bugs come via the air in the plane either through the ventilation system or via air that does not get filtered for what ever reason.

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Continuing on with the thread.

Was watching some vids of Pattaya tonight. Some taken only a few months ago. Until today I had the idea that after a few months this whole virus thing will blow over and we go back to business again. I dont think that will happen. Watching the scene as it was, and then comparing it with the scenes we see now, there would have to be a massive amount of money thrown at the town.

Where is that going to come from?. Say we have some sort of recovery from the virus throughout the world by September. There will be some airlines that never recover, and that allows the remaining ones to hike the prices up, so fewer passengers arriving. The town will be like a basket case. Most owners of bars etc., will be counting their losses. Restaurants the same. I just don't see it happening!. God knows what will happen to the workers that have gone home?. They will be lucky to get a square meal by that time.

Sorry to be a Jonah. Up until today I thought the town would be a good chance to pick itself up, but the more I think about it the less I think it will happen.

A shit scenario!.

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The most likely contaminated areas on the plane are the belt buckle lock, the tray table and the toilet flush button. Around one in  5 people get ill after a flight 

The cold virus can survive for 18 hours on a surface.... and the planes own air con does not function at the gates ( on many planes)as the auxiliary system kicks in which spreads the germs around . Remember that many travelers from other countries will carry germs you may not be immune too... 

Also many airports are riddled with bugs and germs and we wont mention the taxis.... all this plus the snifflers and the sneezers

 

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This is from the USA ...i think its University Health News.... scary 

 

Studies have found a high prevalence and wide array of respiratory viruses in people who have recently traveled.Up to 20 percent of passengers may develop respiratory infections within one week after air travel and that flight attendants have significantly more respiratory infections than those who do not frequently fly.

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3 hours ago, Woodie said:

Say we have some sort of recovery from the virus throughout the world by September.

I can't see that. Even if there is a vaccine developed quickly and the virus is brought under control.

Millions of people in UK, Europe, US and elsewhere have lost their jobs and livelihoods, some perhaps temporarily others maybe long term or permanently. People will be reluctant or unable to spend money on holidays.

I was in Goa a year after the 2004 tsunami and although it hadn't hit Goa there were very few tourists. It wasn't until 2006 that people felt it was safe to start returning.

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2 hours ago, Quietguy said:

 Even if there is a vaccine developed

yes, the new Space race ... whoever develops the first one that really works will hold real power. Can you imagine ...

Perhaps with AI and other tech it could be possible that 12 months time we may have one...i said earlier that may be years away but the prize is so big that maybe superhuman resources will be put to work and accomplish a miracle. Producing it  in billions is another matter

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  • 1 month later...

I'm laughing at Bkk, having put thousands of street food vendors out of business, THAT is what they NEED now. A nice plastic stack chair, folding stainless steel table and lots of nice polluted air breezin by, let covid survive THAT ! :) I have not seen any place in the USA smart enough to begin outside dining.  Next time I go for the take away Mex place, I'll be taking my folding chair, drop the tailgate, pull out the lappie, and put on a good movie while I dine.  Actually this should bring back drive ins a bit too. Sonic and car hops :) Maybe project a movie on the side of the building too.

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