Coronavirus

[Pdoggg]

25 minutes ago, blind boy grunt said:

well at least that's better than the  previous... 'in 3 months [or whatever] all of us in Thailand will know someone who has died'

The good news is that the deaths and and the number of people on ventilators are not increasing much since Omicron is relatively benign compared to previous variants and the majority of Thai residents are vaccinated.

Further good news is that the Cowpoke is back in the saddle!   

[JustSumGai]

I would help fund kissing booths everywhere :)

a great way to get innoculated....I wonder if there is any virus present in semen.

[Pulci Gorgon]

On 2/10/2022 at 7:29 PM, Pdoggg said:

Sounds good!   

There is a now a 14% positivity rate in Thailand and by the end of next week new cases should reach record levels.

Counterintuitively, now may be the time to remove all Covid restrictions.  Perhaps young Thais should actually be encouraged to go out clubbing and catch Covid in an effort to create herd immunity and have the virus burn itself out.

But optimal group behavior is quite different than optimal individual behavior so it is still safest for each individual to social distance as much as possible.

But being double vaxed and boosted, I think the chances are quite low that I'll be on a ventilator because of Omicron.   My motorbike trip the other day was probably riskier than hanging out in bars.

 

It would have been great  to post a follow up of several indexes including curves to understand and make an opibion rapidly. For example, here, my app lets me know the last update 24h a day. Some figures are updated once a day, other datas once every 3 days or once a week. 

The maximum of the R0 was 2 on 17th July, then another peak was reached on the 20th of November at 1.68 followed by another one on January 1st at 1.77. Now the R0 is going down. It's at 0.77 today.
The incidence rate (number of positive cases for 100,000people) had weveral peaks too. The highest till last autumn had been reched on November 2nd 2020, followed by other peaks  on 4 April 2021 (504) and on 14th August 2021 (214). The peak during the wave of variant delta was reached on December 9th 2021 (737) and the peak of the Omicron was reached on 21st January with 4,660 cases per 100,000. It's now at 1513. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On 2/11/2022 at 9:15 AM, Pdoggg said:

The good news is that the deaths and and the number of people on ventilators are not increasing much since Omicron is relatively benign compared to previous variants and the majority of Thai residents are vaccinated.

Further good news is that the Cowpoke is back in the saddle!   

 

Here, the number of deaths has been at a maximu this week. Hopefully, it will be decreasing next week. Everything happens as if we are experiencing 2 (or 3) pandemics here. 
Pandemics for non vaccinated people. It's not over. Hopefully casualties have passed the peak this week since the number of new cases in intensive care passed a peak last week. 
Pandemics for people vaccinated more than 6 months ago. Casualties are far lower but still increasing. 
Pandemics for vaccinated with a booster : that's a flat curve close to zero. 

What I can see in the above curves is that Omicron has contaminated a lot of people but its circulation was slowed down by vaccination campaigns. The main difference however is that rates of contamination (incidence rate) remain high although the virus is slowing down. (The curve of rates of positivity is very similar to the curve of the rates of incidence). 

What I can see is that the end of Omicron wave is coming. Hopefully, the rate of spread is going down sharply, as sharply as after the first wave. I hope this wave will be the last one. However, rates of contaminations remain high in the population although also going down sharply. This means that Omicron is still here and if people stop prudene too early, another variat might pop out and a 6th wave might come. If rates keep on going down, we should reach the lowest since January 2020 next month. This doesn't mean that a new variant won't come from the southern hemisphere or a 6th wave won't strike at the end of the year. If this is the case, it should be a weak wave (at least I hope so). 
 

I guess that figures in Thailand are more or less the same. The country should be careful since figures don't seem to be good in neighbour countries. I can see a curve going up in Vietnam. I hope it means something positive. We don't know about figures in China, but the attitude of Chinese authorithies during the Olympic games seem to point out thety are weakly protected against the coronavirus. 

[Pulci Gorgon]

PS : I don't often post in this thread, but I have just found a crazy website in which one can ask forall kind of curves and stats dealing with Covid 19.  World - CovidTracker

Here are 2 graphs, that I'd like to show you. The first one shows the number of newly daily confirmed case in chosen countries (I actually chose zones). Although Europe has the highest rates, one can see that figures start going down sharply and curves are similar to each other. 

The second graph shows Thailand and neighbouring countries. I didn't add Myanmar but they have flat curves as Cambodia's and China's. If you watch curves of countries who work seriously  on the subject, you can see despite of lower rates , their figures are increasing while the world average is decreasing and curves are about to cross each other. This confirms what I had seen in the information bulletin of the Minitry of Health in Vietnam. regretfully, Malaysia and Thailand are not really better. I'm not optimistic in the short term. 

 

 

 

 

the 3rd graph is a zoom on to the second one

[JustSumGai]

seems to me all they've done is destroy their economies trying to forestall the inevitable. You CAN"T KEEP IT OUT...I'm happy to see the Chinese so obsessed with ERADICATING it (it'd only come back on an airplane).  Means no Chinese tourist tidal wave in the near future. When things open up HAVE YER FUN BOYS!!! as when that high speed rail from China to points south starts it will be the beginning of the end turning Thailand into a Chinese Disneyworld theme park (at least in a corridor along the rails).

[seven]

And now 2 years later NZ is starting to count cases. They must be proud.

[Pulci Gorgon]

17 hours ago, Fenton said:

RIP

 

 

 

Regretfully he had become a mere shadow of himself for a few years. in 2020, he charged China of having invented an artificial virus to launch Covid19. Labs worked on the subject and found evidences that was wrong. He had launched fake news and had contributed to develop conspiracy theories. He was mentally more frail. 

Let him RIP. 

[Pdoggg]

 

Ministry of Public Health goes to Defcon 4.

Quote

The Thai Ministry of Public Health has once again upgraded the risk of COVID-19 infection to Level 4, the second highest level, across the country, as 90% of new infections are now by the Omicron variant.

The ministry previously raised the alert to Level 4 on January 6, before dropping it to Level 3 on January 20.

Deputy Public Health Permanent Secretary Dr. Thongchai Keeratihattayakorn said today (Monday) that it is anticipated that the infection rate will remain high for the next 1-2 weeks, as he urged the public to avoid crowded places, refrain from social gatherings, to work from home and to delay interprovincial travel.

Cases of the BA.2 sub variant of Omicron, which is about 1.4 times more transmissible than the BA.1 strain, has increased by 50% in Thailand. Both the strains are found in Thailand and are equally potent, according to the Disease Control Department.

Meanwhile, Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has signed a ministerial announcement, effective from March 1, under which all Thais will still have access to medical care for COVID-19 infections, but the services provided will be in accordance with their respective entitlements.

There are currently various medical schemes for Thai people, such as the social security scheme for working people who have made contributions to the scheme from their salaries, the universal health scheme, previously known as the gold card, for the general public who are not covered by the social security scheme, and the medical scheme for state officials.

The public health minister explained that the ministry’s basic guideline for the treatment of COVID-19 patients is that the treatments are commensurate with the level of sickness, which means asymptomatic and mild cases must be treated in home isolation as the first choice or in community isolation facilities.

For these patients in the capital, the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration and the National Health Security Office (NHSO) will be responsible for taking care of them and both have been instructed to increase their hotline services for arranging for patients to enter home or community isolation.

Only severe cases will be admitted to general or field hospitals, to ease their workload in anticipation of an increase in cases, as the Omicron variant is spreading steadily.

Anutin also said that Universal Coverage for Emergency Patients (UCEP) remains in place for those who have other underlying diseases, adding that these patients are entitled to free medical services, including in hospitals, if their conditions are serious.

For the treatment of those infected with COVID-19, the Department of Thai Traditional and Complementary Medicine has procured about 10 million doses of the Fah Talai Jone herbal medicine for patients in home isolation.

Treatment of COVID-19 patients in accordance with their entitlements will help reduce the government’s hefty medical bill because, over the past two years, almost every patient could be admitted to a hospital.

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/covid-infection-risk-raised-back-to-level-4-in-thailand/

 

[duke007]

1 hour ago, Fenton said:

Phuket is offering itself as the first province to declare the spread of Covid-19 as an endemic despite a growing number of infections among tourists, according to an official.

As is this Phuket girl 

[Quietguy]

On 2/4/2022 at 3:54 AM, seven said:

Oops.

Johns Hopkins University study reveals COVID lockdowns prevented just 0.2% of deaths

Did cause "enormous economic and social costs"

https://www.wmar2news.com/news/coronavirus/johns-hopkins-university-study-reveals-covid-lockdowns-prevented-only-a-small-number-of-deaths

https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf

A new study by researchers at Johns Hopkins University reveals COVID lockdowns prevented only a small number of deaths caused by the virus.

The authors reviewed 24 separate studies and broke them down into three groups: Lockdown Stringency Index Studies, Shelter-In-Place Order Studies, and Specific Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Studies.

An analysis of each found "that lockdowns have had little to no effect on COVID-19 mortality."

The numbers suggest lockdowns in Europe and the United States reduced the COVID-19 mortality by only an average of 0.2 percent.

Shelter-In-Place orders were also ineffective, but slightly more so than the lockdowns with a 2.9 percent average death reduction rate.

Researchers did find that lockdown orders caused enormous economic and social costs wherever they were implemented.

Just listened to a radio program which debunked this 'study'. It wasn't produced by John Hopkins University, but by three economists (not epidemiologists), only one is a researcher at John Hopkins University. It's conclusions were taken mainly from one paper published by three South African researchers, and have been rejected by epidemiologists.

https://www.eu.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2022/02/18/fact-check-working-paper-isnt-proof-lockdown-dont-work-experts-say/6749032001/

 

 

[Quietguy]

Oops.

https://www.healthfeedback.org/claimreview/claims-johns-hopkins-study-showed-lockdowns-ineffective-reducing-covid-19-mortality-based-working-paper-questionable-methods-for-news-daily-mail/

[seven]

8 hours ago, Quietguy said:

Oops.

https://www.healthfeedback.org/claimreview/claims-johns-hopkins-study-showed-lockdowns-ineffective-reducing-covid-19-mortality-based-working-paper-questionable-methods-for-news-daily-mail/

Oops. Sorry about that. I do  however believe lockdowns were  wrong.

[Pdoggg]

1 hour ago, seven said:

I do  however believe lockdowns were  wrong.

I'm not sure if they were right or wrong.  But now that everybody who wants to be vaccinated is vaccinated IMO lockdowns are certainly no longer necessary.   But since new cases are increasing in Thailand, it is probably prudent to be mindful of social distancing and not take undue risks at the 11th hour.  Instead of french kissing switch to analingus. 

[seven]

4 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

I'm not sure if they were right or wrong.

To the bigger picture I'd say they were definitely wrong. For old farts like us maybe they were right while the vaccine was developed, but we haven't even seen the beginning of effects for younger people. Some were locked up at home for 2 years in some countries.  

[JustSumGai]

10 hours ago, seven said:

Oops. Sorry about that. I do  however believe lockdowns were  wrong.

not so effective anyway, and in fact after the Delta numbers started waning all the lockdown and restrictions did was PROLONG the economic suffering and damage. But you can be SURE the rich Thai's are scooping up destroyed business's/properties to cash in when things open up and be ready for the coming Chinese invasion when that high speed rail finishes in 2026 (or later, I spose). The last 20 tourist facilities have gotten real worn out (maintenance? we don't need no stinkin maintenance!) From what I've seen on vids, most of the backpacker spots on Koh Chang have died and been replaced by more and more upscale resorts, think $100 a night stuff.  I'm pretty sure next time I hit LOS a LOT of places I used to enjoy will be gone or totally renovated with relatively huge price hikes to pay for it.  Gone are the days of "cheap living" in Thailand I would say, at least in tourist type areas. Funny how Covid aided in this. NO guesthouses or hostels could rent out dorm beds for sure. 

[JustSumGai]

9 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

I'm not sure if they were right or wrong.  But now that everybody who wants to be vaccinated is vaccinated IMO lockdowns are certainly no longer necessary.   But since new cases are increasing in Thailand, it is probably prudent to be mindful of social distancing and not take undue risks at the 11th hour.  Instead of french kissing switch to analingus. 

no NO, they need to set up kissing booths dammit, Omicron is longer lived and better immunity than vaccines! the faster it spreads the sooner this will be over, I think even the gov sees this now. 5th DAY PCR IS DEAD NOW.  You just do a quickie antigen test and send it or report it to someone (no word on who or where at this point).  Insurance amount down from 50k to 20k (interesting, the same as Phils recently announced). I think the Thai people are as tired of this bullshit as we are at this point. 

[Pulci Gorgon]

I can't really agree with your statement. Omicron is not a vaccine. It still kills too many people. It contaminated several million people in the country and killed less than the fist wave but it still kills several hundred people every day. 

 

**********

 

Here's another news regarding he transfer of mRNA vaccine production technology to developping countries. The information is given by the Vietnamese Ministry of Health. 

 

Quote

 

Vietnam is one of 11 countries to have transferred mRNA vaccine production technology.

19:21 24/02/2022

MRNA vaccine manufacturing technology is an advanced technology that allows for updating strains and production in large quantities thus not only making sense in covid-19 prevention but also helping to proactively respond to other pandemics in the future.

On the evening of February 23, in Geneva, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced the transfer of mRNA vaccine production technology at the initiative of WHO to Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan and Serbia.

 

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus presided over the announcement.

GS. Dr. Nguyen Thanh Long- Minister of Health of Vietnam attended online at the Ministry of Health bridge point and gave a speech at the event.

In his speech, Minister Nguyen Thanh Long congratulated who's initiative on the MRNA vaccine technology transfer center with the formation of the first center in Cape Town, South Africa.

The Minister of Health expressed his pleasure and thanked WHO for Vietnam's choice to receive mRNA technology.

"This shows that WHO highly appreciates Vietnam's capacity to become a vaccine manufacturing center in the region," the Health Minister said.

Minister Nguyen Thanh Long stated: The Government and the Ministry of Health of Vietnam are committed to supporting and creating maximum conditions for domestic vaccine manufacturers to receive the transfer of mRNA vaccine technology.

With the announcement ceremony, the Minister of Health emphasized: Vietnam is a developing country but has had a lot of experience in vaccine development for decades, vietnam's national vaccine quality management system (NRA) has also been recognized by WHO.

"We believe that by participating in this initiative, Vietnam will not only master mRNA vaccine technology to produce for domestic needs, but also to supply countries in the region and the world, contributing to overcoming inequalities in vaccine access."

Minister Nguyen Thanh Long:

MRNA vaccine technology is an advanced technology that allows for updating strains and production in large quantities thus not only making sense in covid-19 prevention but also helping to proactively respond to other pandemics in the future.

"With the capacity and enthusiasm of manufacturers as well as the determination of the Government, Vietnam looks forward to continuing to receive the support of WHO and partners to be able to master and update mRNA vaccine technology in the future, thereby contributing to strengthening vaccine production capacity in the region, contribute to efforts to ensure national and regional health security," the Health Minister said.

On February 18, at the EU-African Union Summit, the WHO Director-General announced that the first six countries in Africa - Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa and Tunisia - had set up a mRNA vaccine production line from who's global mRNA vaccine centre to ensure the region could produce its own COVID-19 vaccine as well as other countries. Another epidemic.

Thus, with who announcing five more countries on February 23, so far 11 countries have received the transfer of mRNA vaccine production technology under who's initiative.

Ministry of Health.

 

 

 

[JustSumGai]

it's been referred to as the vaccine we could not make by more than a few of the experts.  It will likely save lives as it offers immunity from Delta as well as future variants according to one immunologist I saw. Nature's "vaccine" if you will. Kills a few hundred? maybe so, but that's about the number of people killed on the roads during Songkran and the government seems to find THAT acceptable.  Considering the destruction to the economy over the last 2 yrs, I think a few hundred is not so bad. Every year the common seasonal flu kills around 20,000 in the USA alone. I wonder what the stats are on suicides in the last 2 years? The lockdown effects have surely produced some. Of those you mention most will have underlying health issues. People die. with 8 billion or whatever it is, it's a statistical dust mote. Never would have figured you for a pro lock down type. This ain't cholera (which btw is still considered a pandemic according to one place I read and has killed an estimated 50 million over the many years it's been with us).  One might die from crossing the road at a zebra crossing, but do we order all cars off the road?

[Woodie]

On 2/22/2022 at 10:49 PM, duke007 said:

As is this Phuket girl 

She is a striking looking girl!.

[Pdoggg]

8 hours ago, Woodie said:

She is a striking looking girl!.

She sure is!   

[Pdoggg]

On 2/22/2022 at 6:49 PM, duke007 said:

As is this Phuket girl 

The poster boy for the TAT's Ride Me In Phuket campaign.  

[Pulci Gorgon]

18 hours ago, JustSumGai said:

it's been referred to as the vaccine we could not make by more than a few of the experts.  It will likely save lives as it offers immunity from Delta as well as future variants according to one immunologist I saw. Nature's "vaccine" if you will. Kills a few hundred? maybe so, but that's about the number of people killed on the roads during Songkran and the government seems to find THAT acceptable.  Considering the destruction to the economy over the last 2 yrs, I think a few hundred is not so bad. Every year the common seasonal flu kills around 20,000 in the USA alone. I wonder what the stats are on suicides in the last 2 years? The lockdown effects have surely produced some. Of those you mention most will have underlying health issues. People die. with 8 billion or whatever it is, it's a statistical dust mote. Never would have figured you for a pro lock down type. This ain't cholera (which btw is still considered a pandemic according to one place I read and has killed an estimated 50 million over the many years it's been with us).  One might die from crossing the road at a zebra crossing, but do we order all cars off the road?

 

I don't know whether you replied to me, but if this the case, here's my answer. I was just criticizing the opinion that the Omicron wave was a vaccine and reminded the side effects of this wave : 16,000 deaths in the UK from December 1st to February 28th in the UK (just to mention the UK), what means that the best vaccination campaign consists in using vaccines. 

I am not talking of lockdown effects. I have no time for it and I don't really an opinion on the subject. (I'm too much taken by work this week). 

[JustSumGai]

don't know for sure but the death rate lowering during Omicron seems to be lagged behind the other decreasing signs such as hospitalizations.  I suspect a fair amount of that number you quoted was Delta, but can't be sure.  What I've read is that Omicron did not displace Delta until sometime in February, tho it started goin wild in Jan. There must be overlap, guess we'll only know better in the coming month or two. Of course it's not a vaccine but is having a similar affect and gives better and longer immunity than man made vaccines according to reports I've read. Check out John Campbell.  I'm guessing the death rate during mid 21 was worse than 8.000 a month. 

[Pdoggg]

Bangkok –
A local “AntiCov Nasal Spray”, developed by researchers from five medical departments, is expected to launch in the market in the third quarter of 2022, giving alternatives to prevent the spread of the Covid-19 Coronavirus.
Associate Professor Chanchai Sittipunt of the Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, told the Associated Press today, February 28th, that the research team, including researchers from Chulalongkorn University, Silpakorn University, Health Systems Research Institute (HSRI), Government Pharmaceutical Organization (GPO), and Hibiocy Company Limited, had been incubating and developing antibodies that have antimicrobial elements to prevent the spread of the Covid-19 infection since the beginning of the outbreak.

A prototype antibody is now used in the medical development of the nasal spray with Covid-19 antibodies and is now proposed for a patent license to drive further research and development of Thai innovations to an international standard.

The relevant agencies would conduct clinical research and produce the spray in line with the standards before registering with the Thai Food and Drug Administration (FDA) around June 2022. It was expected to be released into the market around the third quarter this year for Thai people to have access to alternative health innovations to prevent the spread of Covid-19 and to cope with the pandemic situation.

Dr. Phaporn Prasitdamrong, Director of the Hibiocy Company Limited, added that the company continued to support the research and production of the medicine and they also planned to expand the product to the international market to promote Thai innovation to the global stage as well.

https://thepattayanews.com/2022/02/28/thailands-first-anticovid-nasal-spray-to-launch-in-local-market-by-third-quarter-of-2022-experts-say/

[blind boy grunt]

3 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

expand the product to the international market to promote Thai innovation to the global stage as well.

but we will all be dead by then..