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Omicron is really contagious and this whole pandemic can go 2 ways.

1. It infects enough people so we all have antibodies and we're all okay for a few months till China opens up again.

2. It infects enough people so that it mutates into a deadlier variant with the high transmissability and we're all fucked.

Personally hoping for #1 as I just booked flights for May-June.

I also hope (although I don't know for sure) that omicron anti-bodies last longer than a few months because I have a friend who passed away who survived the initial covid but got reinfected with delta and it killed him.

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5 minutes ago, Fenton said:

It mutates it will trade its virulence for transmissability in order to survive, which we are seeing now IMO

Think of it like a document constantly photocopied it just fades away with time.

I'm not an expert by any means, but I can't see it flipping back and being nasty again, unless someone decides to tamper with it, but having said that the emergence of these mutations seem very well timed.

I just find it odd, one flu jab in the Autumn can more or less get you through the season, whilst this fucker takes multiple jabs. 

I don't believe its that deadly too warrant 3-4 injections in healthy people, something is not right here. 

Its stopping it from forming a reservoir in the populations across the globe so it can't curve ball us again. Most important is learn the fucking the lessons, so we don't have the same scenario playing out again.

 

 

we still have the Spanish Flu with us 100 years later. In its various forms.

 

in 1957 and a number of other years....virulent versions of the Spanish Flu returned to kill more. In 1957 it mixed with birds to generate a deadly strain. Killed 1 million.

 

But you are right.....it's getting weaker.

 

from 0.5% death rate to 0.05% death rate. Get your fourth booster guys!

 

 

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3 hours ago, Fenton said:

Its still around today today you get odd cases in the south west USA (NM, AZ & CA). Even in Northern China when they can't help themselves and succumb to a tasty rodent.

Bubonic [black] plague isn't viral, it 's bacterial. it wasn't transmitted by rodents as such, eating them won't hurt.. the plague was caused by fleas that live on rodents.

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12 hours ago, Fenton said:

It mutates it will trade its virulence for transmissability in order to survive, which we are seeing now IMO

Think of it like a document constantly photocopied it just fades away with time.

I'm not an expert by any means, but I can't see it flipping back and being nasty again, unless someone decides to tamper with it, but having said that the emergence of these mutations seem very well timed.

I just find it odd, one flu jab in the Autumn can more or less get you through the season, whilst this fucker takes multiple jabs. 

I don't believe its that deadly too warrant 3-4 injections in healthy people, something is not right here. 

Its stopping it from forming a reservoir in the populations across the globe so it can't curve ball us again. Most important is learn the fucking the lessons, so we don't have the same scenario playing out again.

 

 

Two reasons for that..

1. Transmissability of Flu is quite low compared to Covid so the chance of reinfection is high

2. Flu vaccine is well injecting you with a lower potent strain of the virus vs Pfizer/ Moderna which are actually just instructions of Rna of how to fight the virus with anti-bodies.

And I seem to remember if you got bit by a rabid dog in the 80's, you'd need 14 injections where as now you need just 1. A tetnus booster used to be for 1 year in the 80's but now one is for a decade. Its not weird.. medicines and vaccines get better over time. There is talk about an Army vaccine that will help vs all variants and last a bit longer. So the current vaccines aren't bad, they're just the best we have for now.

Also The vaccine is sort of like insurance rather than armor.

Masks are the armor (well not cloth masks, they're useless, surgical masks are better but N95 masks are the best and we should all be using them. I mean most of us can afford to pay for plane fare to travel to LOS.. getting a box of 10 N95 shouldn't be hard on our budget. Just get a box and rotate through em.. don't wear what you wore yesterday again today).

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12 hours ago, The-Sith said:

we still have the Spanish Flu with us 100 years later. In its various forms.

 

in 1957 and a number of other years....virulent versions of the Spanish Flu returned to kill more. In 1957 it mixed with birds to generate a deadly strain. Killed 1 million.

 

But you are right.....it's getting weaker.

 

from 0.5% death rate to 0.05% death rate. Get your fourth booster guys!

 

 

My ladyboy gf has asthma so I have had to really change our lifestyle.

We used to love going out, she used to love taking photos in midtown manhattan of hi so stores and imax theaters and send em back home but now we just avoid crowds. Most of the time we're home but we go hiking outdoors when we need to.

You just have to analyze your own risk.

I figured if a friend who was in the ladyboy scene, age 32, fitter and younger than me could get covid and die from it, then I am not immune and she is even at more risk with her asthma since she gets bronchitis almost every winter due to not being used to the New York cold. Asthma and covid together could be very very bad.

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There is a significant difference between a certified N95 mask and the general surgical masks that have been recommended. The surgical masks were primarily used to reduce the droplets expelled by the wearer - to reduce transmission of the Covid 19 virus from the mask wearer to another person. While many anti-mask advocates focus on they don't protect the wearer that much (which is true), they miss the main point. Video studies and lab studies have clearly demonstrated there are less particles emitted from surgical mask wearers than non-mask wearers when coughing, sneezing or generally speaking.

N95 masks on the other hand protect both the wearer and the surrounding people. They are tight around the mouth and nose and are specially designed to filter tiny particles out of the air you are inhaling (or exhaling).

At the beginning of the pandemic conflicting advice was given by some country's health authorities that masks (both surgical and N95) were not helpful (which was false) in order to preserve the supply for medical personnel. The truth should have been announced and masks reserved for the medical staff and people at risk.

As for those who say all it takes is one person not to wear a mask properly to cause the spread - they are missing the point that if 95% of people wear masks, it does reduce the speed of the spread of the virus. It doesn't make sense to not promote mask usage on the basis of a small percentage of people not wearing masks correctly.

 

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33 minutes ago, rxpharm said:

There is a significant difference between a certified N95 mask and the general surgical masks that have been recommended. The surgical masks were primarily used to reduce the droplets expelled by the wearer - to reduce transmission of the Covid 19 virus from the mask wearer to another person.

As you probably know we never mandated or recommended the ordinary surgical mask (no point in mention those fashion textile masks which are rarely washed or worn correctly) as our health experts never found any undisputed evidence they prevented transmission, but on contrary gave people a false sense of protection not social distancing enough.

 We now have the lowest transmission in Europe greatly surpassed by our neighbors Denmark, Norway and Finland who mandated masks.

Would you say Sweden is/was wrong regarding surgical masks? Also, do you suggest everyone should wear a N95 mask to be on the safe side?

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You may have the lowest transmission rate in Europe because of the natural tendency of Swedish citizens to be more compliant with advice to social distance and self isolate.

Mask mandates make sense if the health care systems are overloaded - which has been the case in many countries. Statistics quoted like there is only a 0.01% death rate, miss the fact the hospitalization rate has been higher than the regular flu - which a lot of anti Covid people argue that it should be treated as the common flu. From the preliminary data so far the Omicron version seems to be less lethal, but is definitely more infectious - but still can cause hospitalization in non-vaccinated people. This still presents problems with potential overloading of the health care system.

So if a country is having this problem what is the solution? A mask mandate slows down things, the ultimate solution is an effective anti-viral (which seems to be soon available) or super efficient vaccine (which is possible, since most current vaccines from Western countries definitely reduce hospitalization and death somewhere between 60-80%).

There is also the problem with services like police, paramedics, fire fighters, as well as health care workers suffering burn out due to the continuing overload of critical ICU patients, and significant reductions in capability due to the percentages of emergency and health care workers off sick.

I have heard a lot of comments from my health care worker friends stating they are thinking of quitting due to these last 2 years of crisis. Mandatory overtime, delayed vacations/holidays. Belligerent patients, patients who refuse medical advice/treatment due to belief in conspiracy theories - have increased the stress levels that haven't been experienced before.

Is it such a burden to require people to wear a mask if health care system is in the tipping point? If the heath care system is not overloaded, then it is a different story.

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15 hours ago, seven said:

LOL. You want all of us to wear N95 masks?

If you've ever painted a room in your house, you probably already have it lying around so why not use it when you need to? Sure beats a cloth mask (not the surgical mask which is better than cloth mask but still not as good as N95)

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8 hours ago, seven said:

As you probably know we never mandated or recommended the ordinary surgical mask (no point in mention those fashion textile masks which are rarely washed or worn correctly) as our health experts never found any undisputed evidence they prevented transmission, but on contrary gave people a false sense of protection not social distancing enough.

 We now have the lowest transmission in Europe greatly surpassed by our neighbors Denmark, Norway and Finland who mandated masks.

Would you say Sweden is/was wrong regarding surgical masks? Also, do you suggest everyone should wear a N95 mask to be on the safe side?

I totally agree social distancing is the way to go and then you don't even need masks.

For example when I and my ladyboy go hiking, we don't wear masks.. no one gets really close.

But I live in Brooklyn New York and the reality is subways/ buses and streets are like this:

image.png.a9e68e79764191c97a7d3daa518fad62.png

And most of the times they're unmasked.

That's why N95 masks are better when you're in an environment like mine.

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4 hours ago, Ashoka said:

Brooklyn

I was just thinking today that my neighborhood is like Brooklyn Heights just one stop on the baht bus away from Manhattan (Pattaya).

4 hours ago, Ashoka said:

I and my ladyboy go hiking

Ashoka, you and your teerak might really enjoy a slightly different type of hiking behind the dunes at the Fire Island National Seashore.  It is beautiful and open all year round but hardly anyone knows about it.

It is quite different from the party areas of Fire Island further west.  Very secluded and you can even camp overnight.  Camping behind the dunes is much better than their official campsite near the toilets and snack area at Watch Hill though the snack area is probably not open during the winter.

You take the LIRR to Patchogue and then the ferry to Watch Hill and walk east.  There are 7 miles of undeveloped seashore with the area behind the dunes more interesting than the beach.  Not sure if the ferry runs in the winter though.  But the National Seashore can also be reached by car if you drive further out on the Island (Candy came from out on the island, in the backroom she was everybody's darlin') and then approach the National Seashore from the east rather than from Watch Hill to the west.

Really spectacular scenery than is totally different terrain than other hiking venues.  

https://www.nps.gov/fiis/index.htm

 

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41 minutes ago, Pdoggg said:

I was just thinking today that my neighborhood is like Brooklyn Heights just one stop on the baht bus away from Manhattan (Pattaya).

Ashoka, you and your teerak might really enjoy a slightly different type of hiking behind the dunes at the Fire Island National Seashore.  It is beautiful and open all year round but hardly anyone knows about it.

It is quite different from the party areas of Fire Island further west.  Very secluded and you can even camp overnight.  Camping behind the dunes is much better than their official campsite near the toilets and snack area at Watch Hill though the snack area is probably not open during the winter.

You take the LIRR to Patchogue and then the ferry to Watch Hill and walk east.  There are 7 miles of undeveloped seashore with the area behind the dunes more interesting than the beach.  Not sure if the ferry runs in the winter though.  But the National Seashore can also be reached by car if you drive further out on the Island (Candy came from out on the island, in the backroom she was everybody's darlin') and then approach the National Seashore from the east rather than from Watch Hill to the west.

Really spectacular scenery than is totally different terrain than other hiking venues.  

https://www.nps.gov/fiis/index.htm

 

Thanks. I'll check it out.

We went to Lake Minnewasksa trail this past october. We wanted to avoid the bear mountain trail because that's heavily populated. Ran into a rattle snake that we couldn't see but only hear and she couldn't hear it either.. I determined its not directly in our path or above so keep on walking rather than go left or right. Sure enough danger passed soon enough but other than that it was fun.

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17 hours ago, rxpharm said:

A mask mandate slows down things

 

17 hours ago, rxpharm said:

Is it such a burden to require people to wear a mask if health care system is in the tipping point? If the heath care system is not overloaded, then it is a different story.

I don't disagree with your post if you believe masks prevents spreading of covid, delta, omicron. You obviously do , I don't

Of course we should do our best with what we have such as vaccines, social distancing, avoid new contacts and all the other sacrificing it means. I've taken my 3 jabs, and would not oppose if my health authorities/ government told us to mask up. Should I visit Thailand I would obey to their rules.

I think we agree on most things how to fight the pandemic but your post takes for granted masks stop the transmission, which hasn't at all been proven.

Vaccines do and hopefully the upcoming pill.

I saw my doctor a couple of weeks ago. I was handed a mask in the reception, put it on , entered the room asked her if I had to wear the mask. She said no, they don't do anything. She also informed me she had covid earlier this year, asked me if I was vaccinated then eventually took her mask off. 

Is she irresponsible and/or uneducated? 

Looking  at YouTube videos from Treetown in Pattaya basically no one is wearing a mask, why is that?

Two questions in my post, would be nice of you to answer them.

 

 

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There is an excellent Science Brief that was updated on Dec 6, 2021 from the CDC that summarizes the findings of 99 studies of mask usage during this current pandemic from Germany, Canada, China, USA, UK, etc.

They all support the conclusion that mask use reduces transmission of Covid 19 - and note I said reduce - it will not stop the transmission of the virus. A look at the list of journals these articles are published in shows most of them are reputable and reliable.

Your doctor likely decided that since you were vaccinated the risk was low enough to justify removing her mask, since she was already infected earlier and may have also been vaccinated (however if there is a Omicron spread in Sweden that is taking a chance while she and you may not get develop serious consequences from an Omicron infection - if either of you spread it to an unvaccinated person that could be problematic. She is relying on the low odds - that doesn't mean she is uneducated or irresponsible, but it means she was still taking a chance.

The vaccination rate in Pattaya was stated to be over 80%, and public events require proof of vaccination to enter. In these cases people may feel it is ok to remove masks - but personally I would not.

 

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Thanks for reply. 

I don't understand why medical staff over here are wearing masks. Moral support , I guess.

I doubt the Treetown professionals show their covid passes as they cruise Soi Buakao.

80% vaccinated in Pattaya? Come on, rx, you don't really believe that do you?

Omicron is already found here but reports so far suggests vaccinated suffer mild symptoms while the hospitalized are unvaccinated.

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11 hours ago, seven said:

Thanks for reply. 

I don't understand why medical staff over here are wearing masks. Moral support , I guess.

I doubt the Treetown professionals show their covid passes as they cruise Soi Buakao.

80% vaccinated in Pattaya? Come on, rx, you don't really believe that do you?

Omicron is already found here but reports so far suggests vaccinated suffer mild symptoms while the hospitalized are unvaccinated.

Vaccination isn't as politicized in other countries. So the vaccination numbers should be higher than the politicized countries.

The biggest obstacle should be the price but as I was surprised in 2011 in a trip to isaan that even the farmers could afford iphones.. if they value their family health, they will get it.

My ladyboy's family and friends have all gotten it. And although that's a small sample.. we all know some people from thailand so maybe we could put together a sample.

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BTW Netflix has a new movie called "Don't Look Up" with:

Leonardo Di Caprio

Jennifer Lawrence

Cate Blanchet

Meryl Streep

sorta loosely based on how polarization can hurt response to genuine crises. I recommend it.. if for nothing else.. a good laugh. No spoilers but really fun. I stayed up till 2 AM to watch it.

Don't Look Up (2021) - Spoilers and Bloopers - IMDb

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The Thai Ministry of Public Health predicts that in the worst case scenario there'll be over 30,000 Omicron infections per day in the first quarter of 2022.  Even in the best case scenario, it seems that there'll be 10,000 / day by mid-February 

During the peak of the Delta wave in August 21, Thailand had 23,000 infections / day.  

FHqOOj4VcAADfXG?format=jpg&name=900x900

Never make predictions – especially about the future...

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On 12/27/2021 at 9:05 PM, Ashoka said:

BTW Netflix has a new movie called "Don't Look Up" with:

Leonardo Di Caprio

Jennifer Lawrence

Cate Blanchet

Meryl Streep

sorta loosely based on how polarization can hurt response to genuine crises. I recommend it.. if for nothing else.. a good laugh. No spoilers but really fun. I stayed up till 2 AM to watch it.

Don't Look Up (2021) - Spoilers and Bloopers - IMDb

Excellent!   Well worth a watch!   

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