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JaiDee

The next American president. If only.

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The People are mobilizing for Bernie.  A million volunteers have signed up for the campaign and huge crowds came out for his rallies in Brooklyn and Chicago.

bernie.jpg

The primary should be interesting.  Bernie would benefit if Beto stays out of the race.  Although ideologically different, they both have strong support among millennials. Pocohontas is my second choice if Bernie was to falter but for the time being am rooting against her as they both appeal to the same base. She would be the 2nd choice of most Bernie backers. Not sure if Bernie is the second choice of her backers, maybe yes, maybe no. 

Bernie has been portrayed by the media as not being sensitive to needs of minorities.  He is working hard to shift that narrative.  I just got an email from Michael Bennett of the Eagles today endorsing Bernie. Among other actions he took a knee after a sack.

 

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Oh man, I hate to be Mr. Downer, but I have a strong suspicion that the orange tumor will be reinstalled as puppet prez of the land of fat and stupid in 2020. Looks like the Dems are working hard to make this happen. The horrid neoliberal clowns they are offering up are a joke. They are hated by the majority of people, and with good reason. They work for the big corporate donors who(bribe them) pay for their campaigns. Of course, this is true of the alleged “other team” as well. 

The mouth-breathing masses who support Trumpo the Assclown don’t care what he does or says as long as he pisses off what they perceive as “the left.” As long as he does that, and blames the poor and non-whites for their many problems, that’s good enough for them no matter how badly they are getting screwed. MAGA, bitches! 

Sanders was a sheepdog last go round and he’ll likely do the same thing again. Or if by some fluke he magages to get in, it’ll be because he is playing the oligarch’s game, just like Barry the Bomber did. You cannot dismantle the master’s house using the master’s tools. It does not work like that. 

https://blackagendareport.com/facing-2020-and-bernie-20-what-greens-must-do

https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/six-thoughts-on-bernie-2020-c64d7cfd5d7e

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45 minutes ago, strocube said:

The mouth-breathing masses who support Trumpo the Assclown don’t care what he does or says as long as he pisses off what they perceive as “the left.” As long as he does that, and blames the poor and non-whites for their many problems, that’s good enough for them no matter how badly they are getting screwed. MAGA, bitches! 

I'm afraid this is right on the money.

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I guess I should add, that besides the mouth-breathing moron masses who support the orange tumor, there are others, who while they do not agree with or like him, hated “the other side” so badly, that they found him preferable. If nothing else, just because he shook up the status quo.

I have to admit, that as much as I hate the bastard, I wanted to vote for him (did not vote) out of pure spite and hatred for the fucking corporate neoliberal assclowns. I am not that unique, I suspect if I was feeling that way, there were millions of others feeling exactly the same way. 

It looks like they are trying hard to make that happen again. They have not learned their lesson and are doubling down on the stupid. 

The orange tumor is the evil clown this blood-thirsty empire deserves. 

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On 2/19/2019 at 9:10 PM, Sylvester said:

He will be the next president of the United States.

What are the odds?  I will take any and all action you want to muster.  Money up front of course!!!

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On 3/5/2019 at 1:22 AM, Pdoggg said:

The People are mobilizing for Bernie.  A million volunteers have signed up for the campaign and huge crowds came out for his rallies in Brooklyn and Chicago.

bernie.jpg

The primary should be interesting.  Bernie would benefit if Beto stays out of the race.  Although ideologically different, they both have strong support among millennials. Pocohontas is my second choice if Bernie was to falter but for the time being am rooting against her as they both appeal to the same base. She would be the 2nd choice of most Bernie backers. Not sure if Bernie is the second choice of her backers, maybe yes, maybe no. 

Bernie has been portrayed by the media as not being sensitive to needs of minorities.  He is working hard to shift that narrative.  I just got an email from Michael Bennett of the Eagles today endorsing Bernie. Among other actions he took a knee after a sack.

 

Wow you mean THE Michael bennett has endorsed Bernie??  Oh man thats me changing my vote then!!!!

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6 hours ago, ArchieBunker said:

What are the odds?  

The odds have dropped quite a bit on Bernie now that he has thrown his hat into the ring and had a couple of successful rallies and strong fundraising from small donors.

The odds were really off IMO just before he announced but when it was obvious he would jump in. 

It really depends if the Democrat establishment will find an anti-Bernie  candidate to rally around.  This is easier said than done in a big field as the GOP establishment was not able to rally around an anti-Trump candidate.

As far as the general election, I think whoever the Dem candidate is will be favored over Trump despite the incumbency advantage. 

Changing demographics now give the Dems two potential blue paths to victory.  There's the rust belt path of Pennsy-Michigan-Wisconsin but also a sunbelt path of Florida. N. Carolina, Arizona or some combination thereof.

Think much of the Koch brothers money will go to holding the Senate pouring lots of money into Maine, Colorado, Iowa, Arizona, Georgia, and Alabama.

 

 

 

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Any republican candidate is really up against the Electoral College.  The Dems always start out with a large edge.  trump didnt win by much at all in all the swing states and especially the states he, shockingly, won i.e. Wisconsin, Michigan and to a certain extent Pennsylvania.  

The issue the Dems have, and I hate to be so crass, is the black vote.  Trump made enough inroads to help win swing states.  Combine that with the fact that turnout was significantly lower in black precincts.  If he gets more of the black vote, lets say 13-15%, then it gets much tougher for the Dem candidate.

Honestly, i really hate talking about this shit especially so early in the game.  The Dems' nomination process is going to be a total zoo-even more so when Biden decides to announce that he will NOT run.  

The way the Democratic Party has been going, Bernie shouldnt get anywhere NEAR the nomination for a couple of reasons......

 

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14 hours ago, ArchieBunker said:

Electoral College.  The Dems always start out with a large edge.

I am sure the Dems would agree to abolish the Electoral College and shift to the Popular Vote!

Since a Constitutional amendment requires the approval of 3/4 of the states,  that's not happening as states such as the Dakotas will nix that.  Slightly more promising is a legal compact between States requiring their electors to vote for the candidate that won the nationwide popular vote. But I doubt that the Supremes would go for that especially with Chief Roberts now being the most centrist Justice.

Is it true that Trump directed Cohen to write a threatening letter to the Electoral College demanding that they not release his grades?  8P

Unless the parties realign, the GOP is in trouble long-term as the Dem base is younger and has more babies.

Even 2020 vs 2016, these demographic factors are in play. Perhaps this factor could amount to a 1% difference which means quite a bit in a close election

The GOP's best strategy is a combination of voter suppression and appointing judges that will acquiesce to voter suppression.  

The mythical Undecided Voter vs turning out the Base?

Of course both parties want to do both but I think turning out the Base gives you more bang for the buck especially in 2020 where there will be fewer Undecided voters than in 2016.

Think in '16 there were centrist Soccer Moms that thought let's give a businessman a chance and see what he can do. I think this somewhat non-ideological woman is now totally turned off by Trump.

There could also be some unforseen event that could shake things up such as a nuclear war or a new terrorist tactic like putting LSD in the water supply.

Trump could also start a garden variety war such as an invasion of Venuzuela if the polling supported it.  However,  I don't think that war would have popular support.

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, ArchieBunker said:

he issue the Dems have, and I hate to be so crass, is the black vote.  Trump made enough inroads to help win swing states.  Combine that with the fact that turnout was significantly lower in black precincts.  If he gets more of the black vote, lets say 13-15%, then it gets much tougher for the Dem candidate.

 

12 hours ago, ArchieBunker said:

Wisconsin, Michigan and to a certain extent Pennsylvania. 

I am rarely foolish enough to venture into this thread. I have to wonder in places like WI and MI if the low black turnout was because the polls indicated Hillary was five points ahead. Anyone watching election night sees crazy long lines at polling places often in shitty November weather. Why the fuck these people can't vote by mail like I do is embarrassing. But the polls were wrong. Maybe too many Russian bots voting for Hillary in the polls. :biggrin:

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In case I did not make it clear enough in my previous posts, I’m calling the 2020 shitshow (presidential elections) for the orange tumor. 

As it stands right now, the evil prick is a shoe in. 

Tulsie Gabard will not be allowed anywhere near the presidency. Sanders and Warren will sheepdog the moron masses of NPC dems into voting for whatever neoliberal, “centrist” the DNC machine barfs out as their candidate. Peopel will either stay home in droves, or vote for the evil clown out of pure spite. I know I want to.

This message was paid for by Vladimir Putin. 

 

 

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13 hours ago, strocube said:

Tulsie Gabard will not be allowed anywhere near the presidency. 

If she comports herself well on the debate stage she could wind up as Bernie's Veep. 

On the Congressional Hot or Not website, Tulsi is voted the sexiest but it has not been updated to include the new freshman class or AOC would win.

Http://www.SexyConngress.net

I had an easy choice Kyrsten Sinema, bisexual from Arizona vs Diane Feinstein!

Tulsi tries to project the Hawaii surfer image but she ain't no Kono!

I give Tulsi credit for advocating foreign policy ideas outside the Overton Window, basicly telling the truth and calling it as she sees it in the Middle East and Venuzuela.

 

 

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On 3/10/2019 at 4:42 AM, xyzzy said:

 

I am rarely foolish enough to venture into this thread. I have to wonder in places like WI and MI if the low black turnout was because the polls indicated Hillary was five points ahead. Anyone watching election night sees crazy long lines at polling places often in shitty November weather. Why the fuck these people can't vote by mail like I do is embarrassing. But the polls were wrong. Maybe too many Russian bots voting for Hillary in the polls. :biggrin:

You mention the polls.  Look at whom is doing the polling.  Many of them are, dare I say, rigged to a certain extent.  There are a couple of polls who have a history of being the most accurate.  The metrics of these polls that have NOT been accurate have, shock of shock horror of horrors, used a metric where they polled about 23% Republican.  The people who identify Republican is higher about 32% or thereabouts.  Thats why I say they are rigged......

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All media is biased.    This is by design.

All polling is flawed.    But I don't believe this is intentional. 

But the media usually misinterprets polling some of it intentional but mostly due to laziness and ignorance.

For example, most media got it wrong saying that Hilary was a 90% favorite in 2016.  But it would not have been correct to say Trump was the favorite nor would it have been correct to say that Hilary was a 51% favorite. IMO Nate Silver was right saying HRC was a 70% favorite based on the polls.

Were the polls wrong? Obviously they were based on the outcome but I don't believe they were intentionally designed to misrepresent the situation.

For example, I trust the Washington Post's polling even though it's obvious to me that WaPo is extremely biased against Bernie.  Without being explicitly told, the Post just knows that anti-Amazon stories need to be handled in a certain way.    I also trust Fox's polling.

For more than you would ever want to know about polls you can read the linked article:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/

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About the Electoral College-you cannot simply say if it were abolished then the Dems would have won both the 2000 and 2016 Presidential Election.  Without the E College, I am certain the campaigns would have run things differently.  For example, New York would vote for Joe Stalin if he were the Dems nominee.  Having said that large swaths of upstate are Republican or at least lean that way.  A republican candidate WOULD campaign there in order to squeeze out more votes.  Same could be said for California as well.

 

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Also Tulsi Gabbard is being ostracised by the Dems leadership as she has some views that are not in lock step with the party.

A problem with the Democrats agenda is they are lurching left-some say the looney left.  That will turn off many centrists or even left leaners on swing states.

I truly think if the Dems nominate Bernie, which I doubt they will as he has three strikes against him well four actually, they will be defeated in 2020 and the Republicans could very well take back the house.  Having said that, there could be another recession, debt crisis, market fall etc..  Most people vote with their wallets......

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4 hours ago, ArchieBunker said:

 Most people vote with their wallets......

I'm not so sure about that. I think Trump"s appeal to low income whites is more of a cultural thing than economic. It doesn't do the toothless guy in the Apalachian trailer park much good to cut Medicaid but he feels good chanting Build The Wall. The Trump-McConnell-Ryan billionaire tax cut could have been drafted to instead benefit people making less than 200K a year but Trump's base will forgive that IMO.

Medicare For All or Free College isn't going to help me but I'm still a Bernie Bro, a term invented by people not quite officially connected with the Hillary campaign just like they invented the phrase Obama Boy.

Of course if People are doing better economically it will help the party in power, but as far as 2020 goes there is a huge swath of people who completely despise Trump and will be motivated to come out and vote against him no matter what. Likewise There's a bunch of People who hate political correctness and will be motivated to come out to vote for Trump.

In short, I don't think there are that many persuadable voters in 2020, most people know already if they will vote for or against Trump so more than any other year turning put the Base is more important than getting that rare swing voter.

As for the Electoral College, year it's abolition would change campaigns from a 10 state campaign to a 50 state campaign. Both sides would allocate resources differently. 

My core issue is that government policies should benefit all the people not just the Donor Class. I think there are very few politicians that have the back of the 99% in this Class Struggle.

Certainly not Trump or HRC.

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On 3/9/2019 at 6:56 PM, ArchieBunker said:

What are the odds?  I will take any and all action you want to muster.  Money up front of course!!!

I’m beginning to think you might be right, Arch. I love Bernie but I suspect Biden will be the strongest candidate. It’s far too early to tell at this point.

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I never thought Biden would run and I still dont.  I could be wrong.  He has dithered, hemmed and hawwed about running in the past and hasnt pulled the trigger recently. Years ago when he did run, he got absolutely nowhere!!  He is on top of the polls for one reason only-name recognition.  The front runner this early almost never ends up the nominee-especially when there is such a crowded field.

The way the Democratic Party is these days how could they nominate and get behind an old, establishment white guy?  To hell with whether he might be the best candidate-he is old, white and part of the establishment.  Those are his biggest sins and oh yeah he has said some nice things about the opposition.  Thats not allowed anymore its search and destroy.......

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