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The Exchange Rate Tipping Point...


bumblebee

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Besides the US Dollar, most of the major currencies are doing their best impression of a limbo dancer right now, "how low can you go.."  When I got here 3 months ago the Euro was hovering around the 41 B mark mostly, today it's down to 37.40 or so.  I budget on it being 40 these days, (ah the good old days of 6 years ago when it was 50 are distant memories) anything over is a bonus but when it goes this far below it becomes a concern.

 

It  makes going home even more attractive now as at this rate on a long trip it all adds up. So what about you guys, is there a rate you have in mind where it would affect your trips, be it shorter, less often or not come at all etc?

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In my 10 years of coming to Thailand this has always been a mystery to me .

 

The best I've seen is 73 Baht to the English Pound  (in 2005) the worst was 45 Baht (in 2013) 

 

I thought things were heading in the right direction earlier in 2014 when I was getting 55 Baht to the Pound now it has slipped back under the 50 mark .

 

I'm careful with my money now I've had to be since 2008 , anything over 50 is a bonus anything under and things get tight .

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I think you're right DT.  It's really all about the strong dollar rather than the strong baht.

 

The Euro, Swiss Franc, Looney, and Aussie Dollar have all weakened significantly vis a vis the USD,

 

The GBP seems to be holding it's own though.

 

I would assume that the BOT likes stabilty.   It seems these days the BOT is aiming for stabilty vs the USD rather than stability vs a basket a currencies.

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Sadly the Canadian dollar is in the toilet presently after a long stretch of enjoying par with the US$. It's at $0.82 now and still falling. This is a result of the drop in global oil prices. Boo Hoo for Canucks travelling abroad. Not fun times. Might have to head down to the US and live in DT's garage. 

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The strong dollar right now is not necessarily a good thing.  Foreign orders for US products, especially big products (e.g., heavy construction equipment such as Caterpillar), are down (although there are exceptions such as Boeing).  That's why the stock market has been in this crazy fluctuation mode for three or four months now with the DOW just bouncing back and forth between 17,000 and 18,000.  Very skittish, due in large part most recently to the European economies tanking and falling global oil prices.

 

When 2015 1st quarter earnings reports come out in April it could go below 17,000, unless countered by early seasonal housing starts, etc.  And, to make matters worse for us American mongers, because the baht is propped up by dollar reserves, we see no benefit at the currency exchange windows in LOS!  Unfortunate goings on all around now in world economies.  And, what the hell, let's throw in Putin's ongoing aggression toward Ukraine, ISIS, possible power struggles in Saudi Arabia, fall of the Yemeni government, disenfranchised Muslims in Europe...Yikes!  Does this list have an end?!

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  • 1 month later...

I think business only prospers after they've turned the market to SHIT.  They can then employ ppl for little money, sell in all markets and buy up dying  businesses, etc.  They thrive if we suffer. Different kind of slavery. Sometimes life seems so fuedal.

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