Strong Baht Weak Baht

[rxpharm]

As I posted earlier, these things go in cycles, The doom and gloom sayers of high baht for a protracted time forget that the country's fundamentals also impact the exchange. Thailand's current government is making an economic mess of things, and it appears they will continue to do so for at least 2 more years, and maybe 6 if PT win the next election.

[bumblebee]

Good times in Los today if you have the green back in your wallet among other currencies

 

"The baht lost 0.7 percent this week and 0.2 percent today to 32.37 per dollar as of 8:38 a.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency touched 32.41 earlier, the weakest level since July 2010."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-06/thai-baht-bonds-decline-this-week-on-u-s-data-syria-tensions.html

[bumblebee]

The Euro is over 43 B in most exchange booths around town today.  Nice timing coming into high season,  I think I'll pop out and celebrate down by the seashore.

[SiamSam]

Canadian dollar is a little over 33 baht, at least that's the official conversion this morning. Take a peek for me at an exchange booth(s) and let me know how it's trading. 33 baht for one dollar isn't bad.  

[xyzzy]

Canadian dollar is a little over 33 baht

Sorry but you might want to double check that number.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

[SiamSam]

Just checked again and it first showed me 33 baht per $1.00 CDN (Canadian). Check again and it went to 30. The chart on your link was for KRW. 

[pdogg]

Sam, think your looking at the inverse of the rate.

 

0.033 Canadian dollars = 1 Thai Baht

 

But most major banks are giving about 29.7 baht per Loonie.

[SiamSam]

Ahhhhh, yes. 

Well that being the case then forget about me buying the beers. 

[bumblebee]

Canadian dollar is a little over 33 baht, at least that's the official conversion this morning. Take a peek for me at an exchange booth(s) and let me know how it's trading. 33 baht for one dollar isn't bad.  

It's about 30.something in most exchange booths today.  Sterling is over 52 now and Euro is heading north also.

[SiamSam]

Ok, then perhaps I can afford to buy a few beers. 

[xyzzy]

The chart on your link was for KRW.

 

The chart on my link is for whatever currency you select after the page comes up. I like it because it shows most of the banks plus what some of the better rate exchange places in BKK are giving.

 

It's about 30.something in most exchange booths today. Sterling is over 52 now and Euro is heading north also.

 

Pretty much everything is headed north with the unrest in Thailand. 

[SiamSam]

 

The chart on my link is for whatever currency you select after the page comes up. I like it because it shows most of the banks plus what some of the better rate exchange places in BKK are giving.

 

Gotcha. Thanks 

 

It's around 30 to 31 baht for me presently I think. Frankly I have never done better than 33 baht MAX in the past 4 years. 

[bumblebee]

Here is how it was looking in one booth on Beach Road this afternoon.

[SiamSam]

Thanks for the info. 

[bumblebee]

The Euro has managed to make it up to 44 B, go on ya good thing.

[bumblebee]

Here is the state of play this afternoon Wednesday 18.

[pdogg]

 

The baht has had its sharpest weekly decline in four months, following the US Federal Reserve's announcement that it would reduce its monetary stimulus programme during the course of next year.

Bank of Thailand spokeswoman Roong Malikamas yesterday said the baht's depreciation was largely in line with its regional peers after the Fed's announcement, but the Thai currency was weakening more than others due to the country's political problems.

"The depreciation in the baht was triggered by the Fed's tapering [of quantitative easing]," Bloomberg quoted Kozo Hasegawa, a foreign-exchange trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking in Bangkok, as saying. "In the short term, the baht will remain under a gradual weakening basis. Thailand's political uncertainty will probably make it hard for investors to buy Thai assets."

The baht had fallen 1.8 per cent this week to 32.63 per US dollar as of 3.38pm yesterday in Bangkok, according to Bloomberg - the biggest weekly fall since August 23.

The unit dropped 0.5 per cent and touched 32.65 per dollar earlier in the day, the weakest level since June 2010. It has lost 4.3 per cent so far this quarter.

On Thursday, the baht lost 0.4 per cent, Singapore's dollar weakened 0.2 per cent, Indonesia's rupiah dropped 0.2 per cent and India's rupee fell 0.1 per cent.

Less uncertainties

At their joint meeting yesterday, the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee and Financial Institutions Policy Committee noted that the Fed's decision had reduced uncertainties in the financial market, but volatility would remain.

They were of the view that while financial risks were lower than in previous months - with declines in household debt, property sales and loan extension - economic risks were on the downside, with lower-than-expected private and public spending and limited export recovery.

Moreover, political chaos has dented investor confidence.

Though corporate finances remain in good shape, companies' earnings have tended to drop - particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises - due to economic deterioration.

While saying that the banking sector remained in good health, the two committees consider political instability and capital flow-driven volatility will be the two key factors affecting economic and financial stability.

On Wednesday, the Fed announced it would taper its monthly bond purchases by US$10-billion (Bt326 billion) increments over the next seven meetings, before ending the programme in December next year. The Fed's statement was accompanied by caution this time, unlike the previous ones that caused markets to panic.

Roong said that although given previous adjustments, money markets had not moved with high volatility, there could be market volatility if anything unexpected were to arise.

She conceded that Thailand's political uncertainties may affect capital movement.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Baht-in-biggest-weekly-fall-in-four-months-after-F-30222617.html

[bumblebee]

Being totally selfish farangs here in Los we can only say "nice one."

[bumblebee]

Looks like the Baht is going to stay weak for a while longer. http://mobile.businessweek.com/news/2014-01-22/baht-falls-most-in-a-week-on-concern-protests-to-spur-outflows

[bumblebee]

What i have noticed since I got back is that a few but certainly not all UBO booths have very competitive rates compared to other reliable exchange booths.  Today they were offering 44.40 Euro while most of the others were only 44.20 or less.  I always presumed the banks offered lower rates but this seems to be the exception, but like I say only a few like the one here on Beach road.

 

The ones I have noticed have the rates printed on a sheet in the window, besides the electronic board.

 

2 of the others which usually have good rates, these are similar rates to what could be found on Buakhao today also.

 

 

[DownLoLarry]

 

Within a minute of Thailand’s army announcing a coup, the baht fell 0.6 percent versus the dollar. Templeton Emerging Markets Group and Samsung Asean Equity Fund say any market weakness will be shortlived.

“We view the current military coup as likely overall positive as it creates a more stable environment,” Mark Mobius, who oversees about $50 billion as Templeton Emerging Markets Group’s executive chairman, said by e-mail. “The prognosis for Thailand is good given that direct foreign investors want stability in the country.”

“The rubric goes that one should buy any market when there is blood on the streets, but that suggestion arose because blood on the streets historically caused the market in question to dip to levels that were too cheap to ignore,” Sally Macdonald, head of Asian equities at Marlborough Fund Managers in London, said by e-mail. “That cannot be said of the Thai market at present.”

The baht may weaken 1.4 percent to 33 per dollar “in the next couple of sessions,” according to Frances Cheung, head of Asian rates strategy at Credit Agricole in Hong Kong. Mizuho Bank’s senior economist Vishnu Varathan said the baht may drop to 33.5 per dollar. The currency’s one-month implied volatility jumped 36 basis points to 6.07 percent yesterday, the biggest increase since August, and was little changed today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-22/thai-baht-plunge-is-no-bear-market-sign-to-coup-savvy-investors.html

[Snick]

I'm surprised how well the Baht has held up, but I still expect it to weaken (possibly a lot).

It will be interesting to see if the Junta starts 'printing money'

[pdogg]

I'm surprised how well the Baht has held up, but I still expect it to weaken (possibly a lot).

It will be interesting to see if the Junta starts 'printing money'

 

Good point Snick!

 

The General says one of his priorities is to pay the rice farmers what they were promised.

 

"Printing money" to do this would weaken the baht.

[dixon cox]

I'm surprised how well the Baht has held up, but I still expect it to weaken (possibly a lot).

It will be interesting to see if the Junta starts 'printing money'

 

I too am very surprised at how well the baht has managed to hold itself together for the past 6 months or so, but with what's happened over the last week my rating has changed from 'surprised' to 'stunned'. Mind you, the market 'freezes' on weekends so it may be interesting to see if anything significant occurs when it re-opens on Monday again.

 

Surprisingly it was better for us mid-week last week than it is now  

 

Despite countries issuing their typical travel warnings to cover their arses investors don't seem to be too rattled by what's occurring. Maybe they've just become used to it as far as Thailand is concerned.

 

Along with all the debt Thailand has amassed surely it's only a matter of time until we see improvements in exchange rates and printing out some rice-farmer money can only be good for us too. If and when improvements in exchange do happen it will filter down positively to the Thais on the ground in our respective hot-spots due to our improved ability to spend, so it's not all bad for them.

[seven]

I don't get it. Could someone explain why it is that a country under sieges  currency hasn't changed 1 satang over the last week against my currency?  In fact the baht was a little weaker 6 months ago than today.