Strong Baht Weak Baht

[Quietguy]

Walking round yesterday the best rate for UK £ was 39.85 Baht in TT Currency Exchange. Will it remain at below 40 Baht?

[Zeppie]

But historically, isn't that still a strong ratio?  The USD has also come down from it's high.  I was think when it was higher, to just purchase the Baht out right and then hang on to it for my trip to TH and same same for PH.  Not sure how actually swap the physical money, but it was a thought.  Plus you know at some point it well start reversing, so you should make out either way, minus the fees.

[seven]

USD -32b Wasn't it 38b not long ago?

GBP-40b

Euro-35b

Seriously?

[bumblebee]

13 hours ago, seven said:

USD -32b Wasn't it 38b not long ago?

GBP-40b

Euro-35b

Seriously?

Yeah the Euro climbed to over 37 in early December, fortunately we changed enough to see us out till the end of the trip when it was about 36.90 or so.

[deleted]

13 hours ago, seven said:

USD -32b Wasn't it 38b not long ago?

GBP-40b

Euro-35b

Seriously?

It sure was, and while I was in Thailand! I had some good fortune for a change.

[Woodie]

9 hours ago, bumblebee said:

Yeah the Euro climbed to over 37 in early December, fortunately we changed enough to see us out till the end of the trip when it was about 36.90 or so.

Damn it, so a session with Poy would now cost you an extra 3 Euros. I will pass the hat around.

[Pdoggg]

[lance2546]

On 1/25/2023 at 1:18 AM, Sylvester said:

It sure was, and while I was in Thailand! I had some good fortune for a change.

You are one of those American guys that have all the luck ruin it for every one else!!! Opps, I forgot, I'm American also

How ya doin buddy? Yeah B38/ to USD didn't last long- but great while it did. I think the Thai Central bank is raising their interest rates, so the THB was bound to strengthen.

Man, Soi Buakao is busy! 

[deleted]

10 hours ago, lance2546 said:

You are one of those American guys that have all the luck ruin it for every one else!!! Opps, I forgot, I'm American also

How ya doin buddy? Yeah B38/ to USD didn't last long- but great while it did. I think the Thai Central bank is raising their interest rates, so the THB was bound to strengthen.

Man, Soi Buakao is busy! 

Doin' ok, thanks. Yeah, the strong baht saved a good many US dollars during my three months in the Land of (Fake) Smiles.

[Zeppie]

On 1/29/2023 at 5:54 AM, Sylvester said:

Doin' ok, thanks. Yeah, the strong baht saved a good many US dollars during my three months in the Land of (Fake) Smiles.

Syl.......did you just created a new acronym....LOFS!!

[JustSumGai]

days before I flew in it was 38. I got here with 700 in US dollars and only exchanged 200 of it. Got 7,446 baht at 37.2 to the dollar.  Like a DOPE I thought it would stay up there as I'd read someone saying it should rise thru Jan. HOW WRONG he was. Last time I hit the ATM I think I got just over 32.  Oh well...the difference would have only paid for one or 2 sessions I spose. And it's been an average of 32 per dollar since I started coming in 2007.  I find this NO coincidence. Always seems to nose dive near or IN high season.

[Zeppie]

6 hours ago, JustSumGai said:

days before I flew in it was 38. I got here with 700 in US dollars and only exchanged 200 of it. Got 7,446 baht at 37.2 to the dollar.  Like a DOPE I thought it would stay up there as I'd read someone saying it should rise thru Jan. HOW WRONG he was. Last time I hit the ATM I think I got just over 32.  Oh well...the difference would have only paid for one or 2 sessions I spose. And it's been an average of 32 per dollar since I started coming in 2007.  I find this NO coincidence. Always seems to nose dive near or IN high season.

Yeah, there is always someone telling you wrongly what the near future will hold.  They get paid to be wrong all the time.  Morale of the story, careful who you listen to.  About 10% of all the mouth pieces actually have high degree of accuracy.   I play the market (like a novice) and during the covid work from home duration, I had an opportunity to hone in on better crop of prognosticators.   I guess the moral of the story is cash in when its good, since the exact highs and lows are to hard to determine.  

[Pdoggg]

7 hours ago, JustSumGai said:

Always seems to nose dive near or IN high season.

Never thought about seasonal variation in baht value but it would make sense that the aggregate demand for baht by tourists would be greatest during high season.

[Pulci Gorgon]

Can you see seasonal variations in this chat ? 

 

Souce : Xe.com

 

[Pdoggg]

5 hours ago, Pulci Gorgon said:

Can you see seasonal variations

I'm thinking it might be useful to look at the exchange rates of minor currencies such as the Swedish Krone.  For example, If Sweden  spends x% of what  the USA spends on rice imports from Thailand, I suspect that they spend a higher multiple on Thai tourism, perhaps 2x% of what the USA spends. Just a guess; I have no hard data to back up my conjecture.

[Pulci Gorgon]

Choose whichever you want. 

 

 

 

BTW, speaking of rice, have you heard of this trouble of VN rice species in the Thai rice ? 

[Pdoggg]

A slight drag on baht strength is the reluctance of many overseas companies to import Thai coconut milk due to Thai companies practice of using monkeys as forced labor.  

Apparently this is not the case in the Philippines, Vietnam, and other coconut milk exporters.  Thailand had about 80% of the USA coconut milk market.

[Pdoggg]

Quote

There’s plenty of optimism about Thailand due to its tourism potential, but political headwinds could still be a game-changer, says Kelvin Tay from UBS Global Wealth Management.

While Thailand stands to be a “big beneficiary” of China’s reopening and an expected tourism boost, so far, outbound tourism from China has been “pretty meager,” Tay told CNBC “Squawk Box Asia” Thursday. 

China’s employment numbers need to go up first, he added.

Thailand also needs to reinvest in infrastructure and rebuild at a faster rate, said Tay. The country had plans to build up infrastructure on its eastern seaboard side via new ports and airports, but “that hasn’t really happened at this point,” according to Tay.

This is largely due to politics, which Thailand has to “get … right,” he said.

Thai politics could be ‘game-changer.  But for the leading Move Forward party to form a new coalition government, it will need to gain the support of junta-appointed Senate members who get to vote for the next prime minister, Reuters said.

The Election Commission has 60 days to certify the election results, after which the prime minister will be selected.

China’s property market recovery needs to be more ‘broad-based,’ UBS says
Thailand’s elections are a “potential game changer,” said Tay.

Following the votes that showed pro-democracy parties winning a strong majority, the Thai baht on Monday shot to its strongest level since February this year.

While the benchmark SET index initially rose when the results came through, but eventually gave up those early gains.

In fact, Thai stocks are the worst performers in Southeast Asia this year, but Tay says Thailand is his “top pick” in the region.

Thailand’s SET index is down 9.22% this year, the biggest laggard in the broader Asia Pacific region. In comparison, Malaysia is about 4.5% lower and Indonesia’s Jakarta Stock Index has fallen 2.2% in the same period, according to FactSet data.

Another concern is that monarchy-linked companies could be set back by a change in government, Tay added.

The Move Forward party has called for reforms to the monarchy, including changing its defamation law.

Labor challenges
Thailand must also look to its workforce to drive growth, said Tay. The country’s fertility ratio and aging population are “one of the worst globally,” he said, but workers from neighboring Cambodia and Laos can be brought in to try to boost the labor force. The cultural and linguistic similarities between those countries make it “easy” for Thailand to do so, he added.

The Thai market may get a delayed post-election ‘bounce,’ Credit Suisse says
However, Thailand may have to first change its immigration policy. Even after foreign workers have been in Thailand for many years, they are “still considered as migrants and not … part of the local population,” he explained.

Thailand should consider providing migrants with a clear path to residency, he added.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/22/southeast-asias-worst-performing-stock-market-is-ubss-top-pick.html

Americans can invest in a Thailand ETF.   The ticker symbol is THD.

[Pdoggg]

Lots of volatility in the baht today as FX traders assess the probability of blood on the sois.  Bangkok Bank changed their exchange rate 7 times today already.

[Pdoggg]

Concerns are heightening among analysts over Thailand’s first year-on-year inflation decline in 25 months. The drop in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is viewed as an indication of increasing risks of economic deceleration and deflation.

BofA Securities, previously known as Bank of America Merrill Lynch, highlighted that the inflation figure for October signified the first year-on-year decline since August 2021. It fell significantly below the consensus forecast of a 0.05% hike.

The research note from the investment banking division of Bank of America released yesterday, November 8, Tuesday stated that these lower inflation figures reflect a growing economic slowdown, in line with our weak consumption data and stalled domestic demand.

This statement followed the release of October’s headline CPI figures by the Commerce Ministry on Monday. The CPI decreased 0.31% from the previous year and 0.28% month-on-month, in stark contrast to the 0.3% year-on-year increase in September.

Government subsidies, particularly for fuels and electricity, and a slowdown in the food and non-alcoholic beverage sectors were attributed to the decrease. BofA noted that the recent inflation data fell below expectations, indicating the Thai economic recovery, apart from the tourism sector, remains weak.

“With declining domestic consumption momentum and slower tourism growth, it is unlikely there will be demand-pull inflationary pressure on core inflation.”

Maybank Securities pointed out that as core inflation remained steady at a low level of 0.7% in October, compared with 0.6% in September, it implies that weak domestic demand, particularly in investments, and lacklustre exports are keeping inflationary pressures at bay, reported Bangkok Post.

The brokerage predicted that Thailand’s CPI headline inflation would remain around 0% for the rest of the year, averaging 1.5% this year.

Maybank Securities stated that there are growing signs the demand shock from Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s government’s economic policies may be smaller than previously outlined.

They added that declining inflation is likely to elevate real interest rates, providing the Bank of Thailand with more policy space to respond to growth and inflation developments next year.

Kasikorn Securities (KS) noted that October was the first month the Thai economy entered a deflation zone, with a year-on-year contraction of inflation and core CPI stable near 0%.

“Thai inflation is considered low compared with other countries in the region and remained below the target of 2% for six consecutive months.”

The brokerage foresees inflation staying close to zero throughout the fourth quarter.

Nuttaporn Triratanasirikul, deputy managing director of Kasikorn Research Centre (K-Research), believes it’s premature to say the Thai economy is nearing deflation as GDP continues to grow and there’s no significant workforce reduction.

Nuttaporn explained to the Bangkok Post that slowing consumption is partly due to high household debt, while income has not risen.

K-Research maintains its GDP growth forecast for 2023 at 3%, citing robust exports in the final quarter. Although the centre has not released a forecast for 2024 growth, it projects expansion in a range of 3% to 4%, according to Nuttaporn.

https://thethaiger.com/news/business/thailands-inflation-drop-fuels-economic-slowdown-fears

[seven]

So is the baht getting weaker or not? I read all of your post but understand very little.

Is deflation the opposite of inflation? I know Brady deflated the balls awhile back...

[Zeppie]

8 hours ago, seven said:

So is the baht getting weaker or not? I read all of your post but understand very little.

Is deflation the opposite of inflation? I know Brady deflated the balls awhile back...

i hear he is giving Harbaugh advice with cheating, makes since to me they are both cheaters.

[Pulci Gorgon]

18 hours ago, seven said:

So is the baht getting weaker or not? I read all of your post but understand very little.

Is deflation the opposite of inflation? I know Brady deflated the balls awhile back...

You'd rather look for information in wikipedia if you want to understand about inflation and deflation, but yes, they are more less opposite to one another but have a common point : they are both very destructive for the welfare in a country. 

I checked today the THB rate of change vs Euro. It seems to be coming back to older rates although it's not as low (THB) as in 2013. Judge by yourself. 

 

 

 

[seven]

9 minutes ago, Pulci Gorgon said:

but yes, they are more less opposite to one another but have a common point : they are both very destructive for the welfare in a country. 

Thank you for taking the time answering . My question was seriously meant, as there are a few members whos number 1 interest after ladymen is MONEY.

I know nothing about economics. All I do is calculating quick if my approaching ST will be 20 or 30 euros.

[Pdoggg]

18 hours ago, seven said:

Is deflation the opposite of inflation?

Yes.  But it's probably easier for central banks to fight inflation rather than deflation.  It appears that by tightening monetary policy both the Fed and the ECB are winning the war on inflation.

Pheu Thai's digital wallet proposal is an excellent tool to fight deflation although its mainly a social welfare program.   The idea is to get money into the hands of the ultimate consumer who will spend and stimulate the economy.   But their proposal seems unduly complicated.  Instead of a direct deposit into a bank account, the current proposal would require Issan bargirls working in Pattaya to go back home to spend their 10K baht.

Consumer debt has increased dramatically in Thailand in the past 20 years.  It's much easier for Thais to finance cars and motorbikes nowadays than years ago.  Debt is a real problem for many Thais.  If people have no money to spend due to no cash left over after loan repayments that could lead to a crippling deflationary cycle.