Jump to content

Strong Baht Weak Baht


pdogg

Recommended Posts

The Baht is having perhaps the best day of the year against the USD although this might be more reflective of dollar weakness than baht strength.   The July US Consumer Price Index numbers were released today and probably contributed to dollar weakness.

So how is this type of info actionable?

The exchange rate Visa uses is stale and only changes once a day.

The rate for August 11th is:

https://www.visa.co.th/en_TH/travel-with-visa/exchange-rate-calculator.html?fromCurr=USD&toCurr=THB&fee=0.0&utcConvertedDate=&exchangedate=08%2F11%2F2021&submitButton=Calculate+Exchange+Rates

Thai Baht to United States Dollar

August 11, 2021

1 THB = 0.0299042763 USD

1 USD = 33.440033 THB

This price is locked in now but I know the I would get less baht per dollar tomorrow.  Of course there could be dramatic world news that could change things.  For example, if the RAF bombed Brussels in the next few hours that would most likely boost the price of the USD as a safe haven in times of trouble. 

I have to make withdrawals anyway so it makes sense to me to take my withdrawals when I feel Visa has mis-priced fair value by 0.5%or more.

We will see manana.

To see the price you get on Visa purchases or cash advances just use this link:

https://www.visa.co.th/en_TH/travel-with-visa/exchange-rate-calculator.html

On a side note, the machine by my 7/11 was down so I went to the machine by a bank near Hemingway's right before curfew time.  People drive nuts right around curfew time making the roads dangerous, an unintended consequence of curfews.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

The exchange rate Visa uses is stale and only changes once a day.

 

Thai Baht to United States Dollar

August 11, 2021

1 THB = 0.0299042763 USD

1 USD = 33.440033 THB

Today's Visa rate is:

Thai Baht to United States Dollar

August 12, 2021

1 THB = 0.0302114502 USD

1 USD = 33.100033 THB

So by withdrawing about 500 USD last night, I got around 170 baht more than I would get today.  Some might say big deal 170 baht, but that's 3 beers at Emmy's or my entire expenditures per day during the lockdown.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today is definitely not a day to withdraw baht from an ATM with a foreign credit card. You will almost certainly get more money tomorrow afternoon.

Today's rate if using a Visa card:

Thai Baht to United States Dollar

August 13, 2021

1 THB = 0.0303581967 USD

1 USD = 32.940032 THB

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thailand’s First Twin Deficit in Nearly a Decade Set to Hit Baht

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/thailand-first-twin-deficit-nearly-210000490.html

(Bloomberg) -- Thailand is heading for a rare current account deficit this year with the country missing out on the billions of dollars earned from tourism, likely piling more pressure on the nation’s already battered currency.

 

The reversal of fortunes for Asia’s worst-performing major currency this year echoes the damage wrecked by the pandemic on Thailand’s economy. With the nation reeling under the deadliest phase of the Covid outbreak so far, authorities have imposed growth-sapping restrictions on businesses and movement. That’s dented any chances of a quick recovery and plans for a wider reopening of borders to foreign visitors, who contributed more than $60 billion to the economy before the pandemic.

 

 

9689fce39fc6dc01b987ce2610706960.jpeg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today is another day where the Visa card exchange rate is stale and you would be better off going to your ATM tonight rather than waiting for tomorrow if you want to withdraw baht.

The "currency calculator" below gives you an indication of the cost of purchases you make when traveling internationally.

Thai Baht to United States Dollar

August 24, 2021

1 THB = 0.0301032241 USD

1 USD = 33.219033 THB

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

Thai Baht to United States Dollar

August 24, 2021

1 THB = 0.0301032241 USD

1 USD = 33.219033 THB

My $500 withdrawal netted me about 200 extra baht by doing it last night instead of today; 5 Leos at the 7/11 overlooking the bay.  If there was an ATM which gave out 5 free ice cold Leos there would be a line down the entire length of Soi Buakhao!

August 25, 2021

1 THB = 0.0304599147 USD

1 USD = 32.830032 THB

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Oopps. Dammit. Looks like it will be Mama cup noodles and finding company at coconut bar again for us.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/thai-baht-rallies-quarantine-eased-014346946.html

(Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s baht rallied the most since August as an easing of travel requirements for vaccinated visitors brightened the outlook for the tourist-reliant economy.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have no idea where to post this but I think its about money, inflation, pandemic , service demands. So Mods please move it to where its more suited.

Sweden’s inflation experience may show where the U.S. and other developed markets are going

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/swedens-inflation-experience-may-show-where-the-u-s-and-other-developed-markets-are-going-11634299903?siteid=yhoof2

There’s a whole host of goods rocketing in price, as evidenced by U.S. consumer prices matching a 30-year high in September with 5.4% year-over-year growth.

That makes sense. The COVID-19 pandemic, and the policy response of lockdowns and government stimulus, unleashed a massive switch in spending from services to goods. Spending on U.S. durable goods, in March, was 26% above its pre-pandemic trend.

There’s one notable country that didn’t mandate shutdowns or lockdowns — Sweden. And there, services prices did decline. And now, inflation in Sweden is about 3 percentage points less than in the U.S.

im-417786.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 6 months later...
2 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

It didn't cross 34 last year but could do so soon. This may have more to do with dollar strength than baht weakness.

Fucking hell.. 10 years ago I cringed when I had exchange at 29, closer to 28.

10 grand too.

As it turned out.. I moved back stateside and still have like 70k baht left over from that transaction with the last king's pictures on it. Hopefully that money is still good!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Ashoka said:

still have like 70k baht left over from that transaction with the last king's pictures on it. Hopefully that money is still good!

The notes with the former king's pictures were still being used when I was there in February, so you should be ok.

I'd guess that banks are replacing those notes as they receive them.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Ashoka said:

Fucking hell.. 10 years ago I cringed when I had exchange at 29, closer to 28.

10 grand too.

As it turned out.. I moved back stateside and still have like 70k baht left over from that transaction with the last king's pictures on it. Hopefully that money is still good!

Every couple of weeks l get money out at my ATM. Yesterday there were a few of the old notes in with mostly new. The former king is still held in such high esteem that l doubt there is any rush to cancel the old notes. As has been said, a slow process to weed them out is all that is likely to happen - for now anyway.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, cobber32 said:

The former king is still held in such high esteem that l doubt there is any rush to cancel the old notes.

I remember reading on forums that if one drops a Thai banknote it shouldn't be stepped on as we would do at home to stop it blowing away, as that would be stamping on the monarch's head which would be greatly disrespectful.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The baht weakened to 34 baht against the US dollar on Tuesday, its lowest point against the greenback in five years, due to growing concerns on global economic situations, with analysts warning of further losses.

The Thai currency opened at 34.07 baht per US dollar on Tuesday, a level not seen since 2017, weakening from Monday’s close of 34.04.

Poon Panichpibool, a market strategist at Krungthai Bank, said the currency market is avoiding mounting risks arising from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and the Covid-19 outbreak situation in China. 

As the baht has breached its key resistance level of 34 baht per US dollar, Poon warned that the next resistance level of 34.15-34.20 baht must be closely monitored, as it would provoke panic attacks among importers and open the door to further baht’s sell-offs.

“Businesses should use hedging tools such as options to manage risks in the highly volatile currency market,” Poon advised. 

Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group’s Global Economics and Markets Research predicted that “if USD/THB can maintain a foothold above 34.00 within these few days, it is likely to strengthen further.”

“Resistance levels are at 34.25 and 34.40,” Leang added. “The risk for USD/THB is on the upside as long as it does not move below 33.70.”

According to Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, chief economist at Kiatnakin Phatra Securities, one factor for the baht’s weakening is that the Bank of Thailand insisted on holding its policy interest rate steady at 0.5 per cent to support domestic economic recovery, despite the US move to hike its rate to tackle inflation.

“The risk of currency depreciation arises if any country refuses to raise its interest rate in order to maintain domestic economic stimulus measures.” Pipat said. 

“Under the current economic situation, the Bank of Thailand is unlikely to raise the interest rate as the economy has not recovered yet.” 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/39692/baht-drops-against-dollar-to-5-year-low-poised-to-drop-further/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

Poon warned that the next resistance level of 34.15-34.20 baht must be closely monitored, as it would provoke panic attacks among importers and open the door to further baht’s sell-offs.

Blew past that resistance level today and currently trading at 34.29 although at TT Exchange in Pattaya you can currently get only 34.08.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

Blew past that resistance level today and currently trading at 34.29 although at TT Exchange in Pattaya you can currently get only 34.08.

That's gotta be great value for you. Extra 4000 baht every month if you have a $1000 to spend every month.

But how's inflation? I imagine that's cutting into the value bit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Ashoka said:

 

But how's inflation? I imagine that's cutting into the value bit.

There is food and energy inflation but my biggest expense is rent and Pattaya rentals are cheaper than ever!

I saw on a Facebook group the other day that a newish 37 sqm one bedroom Jomtien condo with a gym and pool was only 4000 baht a month.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

There is food and energy inflation but my biggest expense is rent and Pattaya rentals are cheaper than ever!

I saw on a Facebook group the other day that a newish 37 sqm one bedroom Jomtien condo with a gym and pool was only 4000 baht a month.

WTF? I paid 10k for a room with a bathroom and a balcony in 2019 june.

Paying similar soon but not staying that long that next month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...