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Strong Baht Weak Baht


pdogg

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TT is US$ 30.84 at the moment. The pound has a little cushion above 40. I suppose this is all about the Coronavirus. I expect the USD to be above 31 by the weekend. I probably just jinxed the whole thing by make a prediction.

The VISA card rate is only US$ 30.68. So as often is the case when the currency is moving fairly fast in one direction the VISA rate, which only changes ever 24 hours, is lagging.

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11 minutes ago, xyzzy said:

The VISA card rate is only US$ 30.68. So as often is the case when the currency is moving fairly fast in one direction the VISA rate, which only changes ever 24 hours, is lagging.

So if we made an assumption (which would probably not be true) that the dollar appreciates straight up to it's peak and then depreciates straight downhill, when we see the baht depreciate once again on Soi Buakhao then it's time to use the Visa card at the old stale rate which should be the peak.

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2 minutes ago, Pdoggg said:

So if we made an assumption (which would probably not be true) that the dollar appreciates straight up to it's peak and then depreciates straight downhill, when we see the baht depreciate once again on Soi Buakhao then it's time to use the Visa card at the old stale rate which should be the peak.

Yes but since I get all my money from my US VISA debit card I have no choice but to use the card when I need money. I think I've used my card seven times this trip and three times I got a better rate than TT Exchange and three times a little worse. But the difference between 30.84 and 30.64 on 30220 baht is only about US$5 so it's not a really big deal. About the price of a LD. My last four ATM withdrawals of 30220 baht have been a few dollars over US$1000. At the current VISA rate it would be US$985.

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2 hours ago, xyzzy said:

The pound has a little cushion above 40.

I've been getting from 39.18 to the £ when I arrived 2 weeks ago to 39.85 over the last 3 days. Yesterday it was 40. This morning it's 40.3. Still less than the 43-44 I was getting last January.

It will be interesting to see how the £ fares after we leave the EU at 11pm GMT on Friday. I fear a fall, but I hope I'm wrong.

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26 minutes ago, Quietguy said:

 

It will be interesting to see how the £ fares after we leave the EU at 11pm GMT on Friday. I fear a fall, but I hope I'm wrong.

I think as with most financial markets the ramifications of known future events are already baked into the current price.

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4 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

Today at around 6PM Kasikorn had a rate of 30.93 quite a bit higher than TT.

In the last week I've seen a couple of times when K-Bank was showing .01 more than TT for the USD.

The VISA card rate is still stuck at 30.68 currently.

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  • 4 weeks later...
4 hours ago, Pdoggg said:

USD at 31.64 at the main office of Super Rich today probably due to Coronavirus.

The Dow is down around 1000 points as I write.  Today's drop could turn out to be the biggest nominal point drop in Dow history but in percentage terms we're not talking about a crash. 

TT was showing 31.63 when I looked in. I didn't change anymore US$ before I left. I always have that debate with myself. :biggrin:

Today was the third largest point drop in the DOW and very close to the second. But the other two were a greater percentage than today. The DOW is still about 2000 points higher than it was one year ago.

         
1    2018-02-05      24,345.75      −1,175.21     −4.60 %
2 2018-02-08 23,860.46 −1,032.89   −4.15%  
3 2020-02-24 27,960.80 -1,031.61 -3.56 %
           
         
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  • 3 weeks later...

The Fed cut rates to near zero on Sunday night but the baht is depreciating today.  Under normal conditions if a central bank cuts interest rates, that currency depreciates vis a vis other currencies as money tends to move to where the risk adjusted yield is highest.  My guess is that the dollar got stronger because many expect the BOT to cut rates at its March 25th meeting and in times of worldwide crisis the USD tends to appreciate.

Quote

[BANGKOK] Thailand's central bank said on Monday it would monitor the impact of the US Federal Reserve's moves on market participants' confidence.

The central bank's next policy review is on March 25 as scheduled, it said in a text message to reporters. It is expected to further cut the benchmark interest rate, currently at a record low of 1 per cent.

The Fed overnight slashed interest rates to near zero, pledging hundreds of billions of dollars in asset purchases and back stopping foreign authorities with the offer of cheap dollar financing to cushion the economic impact of the novel coronavirus pandemic. REUTERS

 

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Super Rich headquarters has the USD at 32.30 now.  

The spread between the Buy and Sell rate is 10 satang. Usually it is about 4 satang, sometimes as low as 3 for the USD (spread is higher for other currencies) but at times of high volatility the spread widens.  

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32.88 for the USD at the head office of Super Rich Thailand.

The BOT ready to pump Bt1 trillion into ailing financial markets.

I think I will take some additional money out of the bank today or tomorrow to get a proper balance between the bank and my room safe.  Even before the CV related troubles I had planned to reduce my amount in Thai banks as they are reducing the cap for their equivalent of FDIC insurance.  I have more than usual in the bank since Americans can no longer move money into Thailand via a Bangkok Bank New York ACH transfer. 

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