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The Odds on Brexit & Trump Presidency

What is the likely scenario in the coming year?  

10 members have voted

  1. 1. What is the likely scenario in the coming year?

    • Brexit & Trump Presidency
      2
    • Brexit but no Trump presidency
      1
    • No Brexit but Trump Presidency
      2
    • No Brexit, No Trump Presidency
      5


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So we are already in June and the Brexit vote for Britain to remain or leave the EU is weeks away.  The States go to the polls later in the year to elect a new president, who will it be..

So what do you reckon the likely scenario will be this time next year.

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I hope the people of Britian have the balls, despite all the bullshit and fear mongering propaganda, to say a YUGE FUCK YOU to the corrupt as fuck EU. I hope they leave and I hope the entire EU project falls apart. 

For me, it's a no-brainer, if the global power elite and their mouthpieces are urging people to stay, they should leave immediately. Not too complicated. Death to Mr. Global. Death to the Empire. 

As far as what things will look like this time next year, that's hard to say. But, I strongly suspect that TPTB will not let the buttplug anywhere near the presidency. 

Though, personally, I would prefer a buttplug presidency to a she who must not be named presidency. For the simple reason that the orange buffoon just might be what's needed to bring down, or perhaps catalyze the demise of the Empire. 

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2 hours ago, strocube said:

I hope the people of Britian have the balls, despite all the bullshit and fear mongering propaganda, to say a YUGE FUCK YOU to the corrupt as fuck EU. I hope they leave and I hope the entire EU project falls apart. 

For me, it's a no-brainer, if the global power elite and their mouthpieces are urging people to stay, they should leave immediately. Not too complicated. Death to Mr. Global. Death to the Empire. 

 

Yes I agree with you on that one .

As for the American elections a choice between a mad racist demagogue with a comb over or a smiling lying insincere arselicker  of the rich .

What has the world come to ? 

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13 minutes ago, rxpharm said:

Trump is planning a trip to UK to check out his golf course - when asked about Brexit, he had no clue what it was.

This is just one of many reasons why he is the perfect candidate for Merika. He's ignorant, aggressive, self-absorbed, a racist, and a total clueless buffoon. He is a reflection of YUGE swaths of the US population. He speaks their language. 

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This just in:

"Following the two polls overnight pointing to a significant lead for "leave" over "remain" in the Brexit vote, as we noted, cable tumbled and volatility premia spiked as Brexit odds surge to their highest yet. This pushed UK PM David Cameron into full panic mode, explaining that "we're not scaremongering," Cameron then said during an interview that Brexit would put a "bomb under our economy, and the worst thing is, we'd have lit the fuse ourselves."

Right, this clown is totally scaremongering. 

 

 

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-06/uk-pm-cameron-goes-mad-brexit-odds-hit-record-high

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1 hour ago, strocube said:

This just in:

"Following the two polls overnight pointing to a significant lead for "leave" over "remain" in the Brexit vote, as we noted, cable tumbled and volatility premia spiked as Brexit odds surge to their highest yet. This pushed UK PM David Cameron into full panic mode, explaining that "we're not scaremongering," Cameron then said during an interview that Brexit would put a "bomb under our economy, and the worst thing is, we'd have lit the fuse ourselves."

 

 

I was in the Pub earlier having a couple of pints of Strongow too cool down because its too hot here in the UK at the moment :hot:

There were  4 of us chatting in the Beer Garden when this subject came up, first off it clashes with Glastonbury :biggrin:

The voting between us will be as follows  ...Stay In x 1.... Leave x 3

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Quote

If I retire to Spain or another EU country will my healthcare costs still be covered?
David, from East Sussex, is worried about what would happen to his retirement plans if Britain votes to leave the EU. This is one of those issues where it is not possible to say definitively what would happen. At the moment, the large British expat community in Spain gets free access to Spanish GPs and their hospital treatment is paid for by the NHS. After they become permanent residents Spain pays for their hospital treatment. Similar arrangements are in place with other EU countries.


If Britain leaves the EU but remains in the single market, or the European Economic Area as it is known, it might be able to continue with this arrangement, according to a House of Commons library research note. If Britain has to negotiate trade deals with individual member states, it may opt to continue paying for expats' healthcare through the NHS or decide that they would have to cover their own costs if they continue to live abroad, if the country where they live declines to do so.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887If

I were a Brit, instead of Brexit, I'd be pushing for Thailand and the Philippines to become members. 

You guys are lucky you can just leave if you want though. When the Southern States wanted to secede, the North forced them into submission with a bloody war.

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Just to Clarify

United Kingdom = England, Wales, Scotland & Northern Ireland

Great Britain = England, Scotland & Wales

Britain = England & Wales 

British Isles = too many to mention (about 6,000)  :biggrin:

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Apparently there has been a huge upswing in British subjects with Irish ancestry applying for dual citizenship since Ireland will remain in the EU. 

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20 hours ago, strocube said:

I take it then that Brexit would mean they are all leaving? 

There in is the rub.  While a majority of English voters appear to support the exit, Scottish voters in particular tend to favour remain.  So a possible scenario if the vote is to leave is that the Scots may vote again to leave the UK and then apply for EU membership.

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Tomorrow is the Bexit vote.  I don't have a good grip on the issue.  Are anti-immigration feelings the primary driver of Brexit support?

Meanwhile across the pond, a Brit tried to assassinate Donald Trump.  The Brit overstayed his visa in the USA which I guess makes him an illegal alien.

In a LBR 2016 prediction thread, my prediction was that Trump would be assassinated but as they say, almost only counts in horseshoes.

Quote

The British man who allegedly set out to write a new and bloody chapter in American history by assassinating Donald Trump during a campaign rally has been described by friends and neighbours as a nice guy who had never before shown violent tendencies. His father said he has Asperger’s syndrome.

Michael Sandford, 20, allegedly approached a police officer at the event in Las Vegas to say he wanted Trump’s autograph, but then tried to grab his holstered gun. He was tackled and frogmarched from the venue.

When asked why he had done it, Sandford, from Dorking, Surrey, told police: “To shoot and kill Trump,” according to US court papers. He had been planning the assassination for “about a year” and was convinced he would die in the attempt.

 

Woody Guthrie didn't like his landlord, Fred trump, The Donald's father and even wrote a song about him.  I'll take the Guthries over the Trumps anyday of the week.

Quote

More than a half-century ago, the folk singer Woody Guthrie signed a lease in an apartment complex in Brooklyn. He soon had bitter words for his landlord: Donald J. Trump’s father, Fred C. Trump.

Mr. Guthrie, in writings uncovered by a scholar working on a book, invoked “Old Man Trump” while suggesting that blacks were unwelcome as tenants in the Trump apartment complex, near Coney Island.

“He thought that Fred Trump was one who stirs up racial hate, and implicitly profits from it,” the scholar, Will Kaufman, a professor of American literature and culture at the University of Central Lancashire in Britain, said in an interview.

Mr. Kaufman said he came across Mr. Guthrie’s writings about Fred Trump while he was doing research at the Woody Guthrie Center’s archives in Oklahoma. He wrote about his findings last week for The Conversation, a news website.

In December 1950, Mr. Guthrie signed a lease at the Beach Haven apartment complex, Mr. Kaufman wrote in his piece. Soon, Mr. Guthrie was “lamenting the bigotry that pervaded his new, lily-white neighborhood,” he wrote, with words like these:

I suppose
Old Man Trump knows
Just how much
Racial Hate
he stirred up

In the bloodpot of human hearts
When he drawed
That color line
Here at his
Eighteen hundred family project

Mr. Guthrie even reworked his song “I Ain’t Got No Home” into a critique of Fred Trump, according to Mr. Kaufman:

Beach Haven ain’t my home!
I just can’t pay this rent!
My money’s down the drain!
And my soul is badly bent!
Beach Haven looks like heaven
Where no black ones come to roam!
No, no, no! Old Man Trump!
Old Beach Haven ain’t my home!

Mr. Guthrie died in 1967, and in the 1970s, the Justice Department sued the Trumps, accusing them of discriminating against blacks. (A settlement was eventually reached; at the time, Trump Management noted the agreement did not constitute an admission of guilt.)

A spokeswoman for Donald Trump declined to comment on Mr. Guthrie’s writings.

Mr. Kaufman, the author of “Woody Guthrie, American Radical,” said Mr. Guthrie would be repulsed by the presidential candidacy of Donald Trump. He pointed to Mr. Trump’s comments about Mexicans and Muslims, and contrasted the candidate’s sentiments to those of Mr. Guthrie in his song “Deportee,” written about a plane crash that killed Mexican farm workers.

“Woody was always championing those who didn’t have a voice, who didn’t have any money, who didn’t have any power,” Mr. Kaufman said. “There’s no doubt that he would have had maximum contempt for Donald Trump, even without the issue of race.”

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/25/woody-guthrie-sang-of-his-contempt-for-his-landlord-donald-trumps-father/

 

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Just about to fall asleep.  Buy the time I wake up in 4 hours or more the future of the U.K. will be done and dusted.  At the moment it's all to play for but in that short space of time things will have changed dramatically.  Fun Dee na.

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Stocks are tumbling worldwide, not just the Footsie. The Japanese market dropped 8%.

There are winners and losers. Gold is way up, the Yen and US dollar doing well.

Lord Ridley, not sure who he is to tell you the truth,  said that Brexit is the most important thing to happen to Britain since the Protestant Reformation.  I don't see it as being fundamentally such a big deal though say compared to England entering WWI or appeasing Hitler at Munich.

Interesting is that Stay won in Scotland, Northern Island, and London. Leave won everywhere else. Some are saying London rains affected voter turnout and good weather would have made the vote much closer.

   

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1 hour ago, Pdoggg said:

Interesting is that Stay won in Scotland, Northern Island, and London.

Interesting times ahead that is for sure.  As was mentioned before it now possible that Scotland will hold a second vote on remaining in the UK or not.  The majority want to be part of the EU and the only way that is going to happen now is if they become an independent country and apply to the EU.  

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Donald Trump Hails Brexit Vote as Brits 'Taking Back Their Country'

  • 148110471.jpg?w=840&h=485&crop=1

Trump is in Scotland to open his Turnberry golf course

Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on Friday weighed in on Britain’s historic decision to leave the European Union during a business trip to Scotland to christen his newly refurbished Turnberry golf resort.

As he arrived at the resort Friday morning, Trump told a gaggle of reporters that the Brexit vote “is a great thing” and that it represents the British people taking their country back, according to media reports.

In May, Trump said his personal belief—as opposed to an official recommendation—was that the U.K. would be better off apart from the EU. In explaining that stance, Trump mainly cited immigration. “I think the migration has been a horrible thing for Europe,” Trump said. “A lot of that was pushed by the EU. I would say that they’re better off without it, personally, but I’m not making that as a recommendation. Just my feeling.”

Either way, Trump is one of the only foreign luminaries to have weighed on the side of the ultimate winners of the vote. President Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde and almost all of the serving government heads in the other 27 E.U. states had urged the U.K. not to leave.

Trump has also speculated that he might have a poor relationship with U.K. Prime Minister David Cameronsince the British leader has called Trump’s prospective ban on Muslim immigration to the U.S. “divisive, stupid and wrong.”

“It looks like we are not going to have a very good relationship,” Trump said in an interview with ITV in May. “Who knows, I hope to have a good relationship with him, but he’s not willing to address the problem either,” Trump said, referring to Islamist extremism.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bumblebee said:

Can the English, Scottish and Northern Ireland football supporters in France now be viewed as illegal immigrants.104.gifshy1.gif

I think you mean Welsh supporters BB, not many Jocks in France I would imagine.....they will be at home stocked up with Buckfast getting ready to support Iceland on Monday :biggrin:

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